mma / Columns

UFC’s Fortunes Changing After Slow Start to 2017

August 14, 2017 | Posted by Dan Plunkett
UFC 214 - Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier

The UFC had a huge 2016. Building on strong momentum from the end of 2015, the promotion scored big with perhaps its biggest two pay-per-views ever (Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz at UFC 196, and then the rematch at UFC 202), another confirmed million-plus pay-per-view seller (UFC 200), and two more estimated at more than one million buys (UFC 205 and UFC 207). They also smashed their company gate record by $5 million; on top of that, added three gates that fall into the top six in company history.

That success in 2016 was built on the backs of three fighters: Conor McGregor, who joined Mike Tyson as the only fighter to headline three pay-per-views in the same calendar year that sold more than one million units; Ronda Rousey, who fought once at the tail end of the year; and Brock Lesnar, who returned from a long absence as the biggest draw at UFC 200.

McGregor took time off in the beginning of 2017 for the birth of his son and to angle for a mega-fight with Floyd Mayweather. Rousey has not spoken of fighting since Amanda Nunes steamrolled her last December. Although Rousey remains in the USADA testing pool, keeping the door slightly ajar, the popular belief is that she is done fighting. Brock Lesnar failed a drug test and received a yearlong suspension. In February, he announced his retirement and withdrew from the USADA testing pool.

The result of the absence of the three biggest attractions in UFC history was low sales and little interest. For six-and-a-half months, the promotion waded through a largely uninspiring year, bottoming out in early July when UFC 213 attracted only an estimated 135,000 purchases.

Then, very suddenly, the beginnings of a turnaround occurred. Jon Jones, one of the sport’s biggest stars but not a steady attraction on the level of McGregor, Rousey, or Lesnar, returned from suspension in late July. Most expected his fight with archrival Daniel Cormier to draw UFC’s best numbers of the year to date, but the fight was successful beyond most hopes. The most recent estimate from reporter Dave Meltzer put the fight at 860,000 buys, which is a great number during a hot streak, and a remarkable feat during a cold streak.

At the same time Jones returned as a bigger star than ever before, the wheels turned sharply on UFC’s fortunes. Brock Lesnar’s interest in returning is no longer just a rumor, and Jones is his targeted opponent. Lesnar has yet to rejoin the USADA testing pool, and if he does return, he would have to wait another six months or so after rejoining to serve out the remainder of his suspension. As such, Jones vs. Lesnar is still off in the distance, but UFC is surely targeting that destination.

In the meantime, Jones has an interesting fight ahead of him against Alexander Gustafsson, although that fight is not official.

The same night Jones reclaimed his light heavyweight gold, UFC made its intentions with another returning star clear once again. Georges St-Pierre, the fourth-biggest draw in UFC history, will fight middleweight champion Michael Bisping in November. It will be St-Pierre’s first fight in four years and his first in the middleweight division. While popular reaction to the fight has been tepid, the fight still promises a strong number on pay-per-view and at the gate.

In two weeks, the all-time pay-per-view and combat sports gate records may fall as Conor McGregor gets his wish in a boxing match with Floyd Mayweather. Although not a UFC event, the fight puts UFC in the spotlight, and the promotion is a stakeholder in the monumentally rich bout. While still uncertain, it appears that McGregor plans to fight in the UFC after his big payday. He may return as soon as December 30, but most likely would not be back until 2018.

The UFC still has one notable speed-bump on the schedule – September’s UFC 215 pay-per-view with Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg headlining. After that, the rest of UFC’s year is poised to be a strong one. Stipe Miocic vs. Cain Velasquez for the heavyweight championship is likely to headline the October pay-per-view, which should draw solidly. November’s event in Madison Square Garden is likely to have one or two more title fights in addition to Bisping vs. St-Pierre.

December has two pay-per-view events. UFC will likely target Jon Jones for one of them, and other notable champions available include Cris Cyborg, Cody Garbrandt, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Max Holloway, and Tyron Woodley. The long-anticipated Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson bout is also searching for a home.

The fight business is cyclical and depends on big stars for its peaks. MMA’s biggest stars were absent in the first half of 2017, and as a result there were no really big fights. Current and past stars are aligning to reinvigorate UFC’s fortunes, which should lead to a strong stretch to end 2017 for the UFC to carry into 2018.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.

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