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411 Box Office Report: Dumbo Disappoints But Still Hits #1, Captain Marvel Nears $1 Billion Worldwide

March 31, 2019 | Posted by Jeremy Thomas

Dumbo was no blockbuster hit, but it still managed to top the box office even as Captain Marvel closed in on $1 billion worldwide. Disney’s live-action adaptation of its animated classic brought in $45 million in its opening weekend for the #1 spot. That number is well below the $55 million to $60 million that most expected it to do, and ranks below previous Disney live-action adaptations like Cinderella ($67.9 million) and Maleficent ($69.4 million).

Dumbo had high expectations going into the weekend. The initial reaction to the trailers were strong and audience indications were good based on Disney’s solid job marketing the film. But then the reviews came in, and they were mediocre. The Rotten Tomatoes consensus has the movie at a lackluster 50%, and live-action family films are genmerally more susceptible to the effects of critical regard than other genres. That dampened enthusiasm. Dumbo also had to contend with the fact that there’s a solid batch of films playing to all ages out there right now between Captain Marvel, Wonder Park, and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. That helped bring the numbers down despite an okay Saturday bump.

There is good news here, though not incredibly so. Dumbo had a decent (if not stellar) trajectory throughout the weekend that reflected the A- CinemaScore, usually an indicator of good word-of-mouth. And the film got off to a pretty solid start overseas, bringing in $71 million for a $116 million worldwide first weekend. There’s still a lot of ground to make up, especially with a $170 million budget plus marketing. But it should be able to get pretty close to breakeven. A final domestic gross of around $130 million seems likely, and if overseas grosses stay strong it shouldn’t be much of a money loser for Disney.

Dumbo wasn’t expected to have much impact on last week’s winner in Us, as they play to very different crowds. And while the horror film didn’t have the phenomenal hold of Jordan Peele’s first film Get Out, it was had a very palatable 53% drop in its second weekend to $33.6 million. That drop is on par with your average horror film, and makes sense when you consider how much Us overperformed. The film has $128.2 million domestically and $174.5 million worldwide thuis far, a major hit on its $20 million budget. The film is still aiming for around $190 million by the end of its run.

Captain Marvel held on nicely in its third weekend, dropping just 40% to $20.5 million. The MCU film has totalled $353.8 million domestically, putting it at #8 among MCU films to date, with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’s $389.8 million next to go. More importantly, the film has $990.6 million worldwide and will have passed $1 billion by next weekend. That’s good for #7 among MCU films in worldwide gross. There is still a bit of question about whether it can beat Captain America: Civil War’s $1.153 billion worldwide, but it’s certainly in reach. Obviously, it’s a megahit on a $153 million budget. It could still reach $400 million domestically.

Five Feet Apart is showing strong box office legs. The sick kid romatic drama was down just 27% in its third weekend with $6.3 million. The Lionsgate film now stands at $35.9 million domestically and $50.7 million worldwide, a success against its low $7 million budget. It should end off around $50 million or more by the end of its US run.

Pure Flix’s Unplanned had a better-than-expected opening, jumping to #5 with $6.1 million. The faith-based anti-abortion drama captured audiences’ attention despite mediocre reviews (53%). This isn’t a big surprise, as Pure Flix’s fare has always been effectively marketed toward its target demographic. Pure Flix was initially concerned after the film received an R rating, but the controversry around that decision may have helped bring in audiences. It’s the second-best opening for the studio behind God’s Not Dead 2’s $7.6 million start in April of 2016.

Of course, the question is where it goes from here. Pure Flix movies don’t usually have heavy multipliers as the target audience tends to come out to see it on opening weekend. Following along on the typical trend, Unplanned should end its run somewhere in the $18 million to $20 million range. There’s no word on the budget, but this should be profitable for the studio.

Paramount Animation’s Wonder Park fell to #6 in its third weekend, down 44% to $4.9 million. The family film felt a bit of the Dumbo sting there. It has now grossed $37.9 million domestically and $52.3 million worldwide, but its $80 million budget means this one won’t make money. It’s still on par for about $48 million to $50 million.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World eased 35% to $4.2 million. The franchise-closer has now grossed $153 million domestically and $501.9 million worldwide. It has now passed the worldwide gross of the first film, though the sequel’s $621.5 million is out of reach. Still, the movie is a hit and on course to close at around $170 million domestically. The budget was $129 million.

Coming in at #8 was Hotel Mumbai. Bleeker Street’s dramatization of the 2008 at the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel attacks expanded into 924 theaters to score $3.2 million. That’s off a decent 73% RT score and some effective marketing work by Bleeker Street. The budget isn’t known, but at $3.3 million so far it’s not in the worst shape. It could reach $10 million in the US depending on how it’s handled from here

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral began to run out of steam, down 39% in its fifth weekend to $2.7 million. The comedy has now reached $70 million domestically and $71.2 million worldwide, keeping its final gross likely around $75 million. It’s a hit for Perry and the studio against a $20 million budget.

Closing out the top ten was Matthew McConaughey’s Beach Bum. The Harvey Korine-directed movie scrounged up just $1.8 million, McConaughey’s lowest wide- or mid-release start to date. The film is also well below the start of Korine’s last film, 2013’s Spring Breakers ($4.8 million). Beach Bum will be gone without much noise after this weekend and probably won’t do more than $5 million total, if that.

Next weekend DC returns to the cinemas with Shazam!. The superhero film is now looking at a $50 million to $55 million start and perhaps more. Also opening is horror flick Pet Sematary, which is targeting $25 million or so. Civil rights drama Best of Enemies will be slightly below $10 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Dumbo – $45 million ($45 million total)
2. Us – $33.6 million ($128.2 million total)
3. Captain Marvel – $20.5 million ($353.8 million total)
4. Five Feet Apart – $6.3 million ($35.9 million total)
5. Unplanned – $6.1 million ($6.1 million total)
6. Wonder Park – $4.9 million ($37.9 million total)
7. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – $4.2 million ($153 million total)
8. Hotel Mumbai – $3.2 million ($3.3 million total)
9. A Madea Family Funeral – $2.7 million ($70 million total)
10. Beach Bum – $1.8 million ($1.8 million total)