411 Box Office Report: Black Panther Breaks More Records to Reign Again, Game Night Solid

Marvel’s Black Panther broke more records as it tore up the box office, dominating at #1 for a second weekend. The latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe racked up $108 million to score the best second weekend of a Marvel film, and the second-best of all-time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $149.2 million. Panther is only the fourth film to bring in over $100 million in its second weekend, and its hold was a strong 48% thanks to excellent word of mouth.

Black Panther overperformed once again, as most forecasts had it just barely edging $100 million or perhaps coming in a little lower. Much like last weekend, the numbers kept climbing throughout the weekend. Early estimates had it at around $94 million, but it boosted on Saturday and Sunday to finish the weekend out strong. The film now stands at $400 million even in just ten days and $704 million worldwide. That is enough to already put it at #5 among the MCU domestically and #10 worldwide, with China and Japan still to open.

So how high will it go at this point? Well, the sky is the limit. Right now it is above where Avengers was at the same time frame by almost $27 million. And with a weaker slate of competition in the coming weeks than Avengers had, it seems like it may be able to top that film’s $623.4 million domestic total to become the highest-grossing MCU film domestically to date. Conservatively, the film shouldn’t have a problem making it to at least $550 million in North America and will very likely climb much higher. At worst it will be the second-highest MCU film. On a $200 million budget plus marketing, this is a huge, huge film for Disney.

Coming in at #2 was the R-rated comedy Game Night. The Jason Batman and Rachel McAdams-led ensemble film brought in $16.6 million, which is more or less where predictions had it pegged. That’s not a stellar opening, but considering no one could have known Black Panther would be such a behemoth, it’s a solid counterprogramming start. It does rank higher than most of last year’s R-rated comedies, including Rough Night ($8 million), The House ($8.7 million), Fist Fight ($12.2 million), and Father Figures ($3.3 million). It got off to an okay start overseas with $5.2 million, mostly in Australia and Russia which are the only major markets it opened in.

Game Night’s success relies strongly on its reception (81% on Rotten Tomatoes) and positive word of mouth (a B+ CinemaScore). Comedy has been a tricky genre as of late to really score with, and Warner Bros. knew that their cast alone wouldn’t sell it. They marketed the film based on the concept rather than the star power and that appears to have paid off. The film is appealing to both men and women, and that will help it continue to business as the film stays in theaters. Right now, it’s looking likely to make it to around $45 million to $50 million domestically. Combined with international grosses, that should make this one a success on a $37 million budget.

Peter Rabbit came in at #3, down just 28% in its third weekend with $12.5 million. The live-action/animated hybrid comedy pushed its overall totals to $71.3 million domestically and, still in just a tiny amount of theaters overseas, $72 million worldwide. The film is now targeting around $100 million domestically and will make it to profit on a $50 million budget.

Alex Garland’s Annihilation was somewhat of a disappointment, as it opened at #4 with $11 million. The Natalie Portman sci-fi film missed its predictions of a mid-teens gross, largely because Black Panther sucked most of the genre film-related oxygen out of the room. Garland’s follow-up to his critically-acclaimed Ex Machina isn’t a bomb, but it’s not where Paramount wanted it to be. Notably, Game Night also pulled some of ita audience way, as they both registered with women slightly more than men in terms of attendance.

Annihilation’s biggest problem now will be word of mouth. The film landed a not-good C CinemaScore, which suggests it may find problems bringing in people in successive weeks. A $35 million domestic final is easily attainable, but the film will have to do business overseas to bring it to profit on a $40 million budget.

Fifty Shades Freed dropped big in its third weekend, down 60% to $6.9 million for a #5 ranking. The final film in the franchise is tracking right on par with Fifty Shades Darker in terms of holds and now sits at $89.6 million domestically. It’s holding better than Darker overseas though and now stands at $320.4 million worldwide. It should finish off at around $100 million domestically, ending on a profitable note for Universal. The budget was $55 million.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle brought in $5.7 million, down just 29% from last weekend. The action-comedy is continuing its march toward $400 million, a number than looks increasingly likely. It currently has $387.3 million domestically and $920 million worldwide. Obviously, it’s a huge hit on a $90 million budget.

Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris dropped another 53% in its third weekend to $3.6 million. That brings the true story-inspired drama to $32.3 million domestically and $45.2 million. Those aren’t really good numbers, and it is aiming for around $40 million in the US. That may be enough for profit on a $30 million budget.

The Greatest Showman slipped down 33% to $3.4 million in its tenth week. The musical has been a legend of box office holds, and now sits at $160.8 domestically and $361.3 million worldwide. It’s a hit for Fox on an $84 million budget and should make it to $170 million domestically.

Orion came back into business with Every Day, based on the YA novel of the same name. The teen romantic drama didn’t do well though, scoring just $3.1 million. While no one expected this to be a hit, that’s still a disappointing start. That’s the result of a not-great marketing effort by the studio and middling reviews at 50%. However, audience reaction is strong (they usually are for the genre) and this could make it as high as $10 million to $12 million. That would be enough that the movie would be okay on its $4.9 million budget, considering the minimal marketing cost.

Stop-motion animated film Early Man closed out the top ten with $1.7 million. That’s down 47%, a drop that the film didn’t want to have. The Aardman production now sits at $6.8 million domestically and $25.6 million worldwide. It won’t likely be a profit-maker, as it makes it to around $9 million domestically and much more overseas on a $50 million budget.

Next weekend should see the third-straight reign by Black Panther. Competing for #2 will be Jennifer Lawrence’s Red Sparrow and Bruce Willis’ Death Wish, both aiming for $15 million to $20 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Black Panther – $108 million ($400 million total)
2. Game Night – $16.6 million ($16.6 million total)
3. Peter Rabbit – $12.5 million ($71.3 million total)
4. Annihilation – $11 million ($11 million total)
5. Fifty Shades Freed – $6.9 million ($89.6 million total)
6. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle – $5.7 million ($387.3 total)
7. The 15:17 to Paris – $3.6 million ($32.3 million total)
8. The Greatest Showman – $3.4 million ($160.8 million total)
9. Every Day – $3.1 million ($3.1 million total)
10. Early Man – $1.7 million ($6.8 million total)