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411 Box Office Report: Captain Marvel Dominates Second Weekend

March 17, 2019 | Posted by Jeremy Thomas
Captain Marvel 2

There were no possible contenders to Captain Marvel’s throne, leading the Marvel film to dominate for a second weekend. The Marvel Cinematic Universe blockbuster scored $69.3 million in its second frame. That’s off 55% from its massive $153 million start, a hold comparable to Avengers: Infinity War (56%), Thor: Ragnarok (54%) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (56%). It ranks higher than Black Panther’s stellar 44%, but was better than that of the other recent solo MCU franchise starter in Spider-Man: Homecoming (62%) and sits at a current domestic total of $266.2 million.

What all that means is that Carol Danvers is flying her debut right along the traditional lines of where MCU’s Phase Three films tend to fall in terms of box office legs. That’s good news for Disney, because the average multiple comes out at a 2.78, which would put Captain Marvel at around the $425 million range. In truth though, the film will be somewhat hurt by the fact that Avengers: Endgame will swamp the tail end of its run. Still, right now it seems pretty inconceivable that the movie closes out at below $400 million. Assuming it can hit that mark, it will be the seventh-best MCU domestic grossing film to date and the second-highest solo franchise starter behind Black Panther’s $700.1 million.

The good news also continues to resonate overseas, where the film is now up to $494 million after two weeks. Puts the movie at $760.2 million worldwide, good enough for #11 among all MCU films by that metric. Suffice it to say, this is another mega-Marvel hit against its $153 million budget, and it has a legit shot at hitting $1 billion worldwide.

While Marvel was dominating the top spot, there was plenty of room left for others to shine in their own way. First among those was Wonder Park, the new animated film from Paramount Animation and Nickelodeon Movies. The kids film started off with $16 million, indexing pretty well over its expected $8 million to $10 million start. The film was counter-programming for parents who wanted to bring their kids to a film with far less punching than Carol Danvers could provide, and with the other animated options starting to fade it took advantage.

Unfortunately, this still isn’t the greatest start for the film. The budget is estimated to be in the $80 million range, which is a high wall for a movie that started with just $16 million to climb. The critical word won’t help the movie any (the Rotten Tomatoes consensus is 30%) and audiences liked it okay but not great, with a B+ CinemaScore. That sounds good, but CinemaScores for animated entries tend to score much higher than the average. Wonder Park will also be up against Dumbo in two weeks, which will likely wipe it out. With a smattering of markets bringing in $4.3 million overseas for a $20.3 million worldwide total, this one probably won’t make its budget back. The likely final domestic gross will be in the $50 million to $55 million range.

Things looked better for Five Feet Apart, which targeted the teen romance crowd. The sick kid romantic dramedy brought in $13.2 million, right about on target with expectations. It’s a solid start for a film that cost just $7 million plus marketing. It was the most-liked film of the three English-language wide releases by critics, coming in at a meh 53% on RT. But predictably, the target audience loved it and gave it an A CinemaScore. CBS Films and Lionsgate were effective at getting the film to audiences, with a solid marketing campaign pouncing on the success of star Cole Sprouse’s Riverdale work and a canny digital spend that put the trailer in front of lots of young people’s eyes.

Now the big question is how long Five Feet can hang on for. The biggest success of this subgenre, 2014’s The Fault in Our Stars, had a 2.6 multiple. And the biggest flop (last year’s Midnight Sun) had just a 2.4. Both of those are outliers and have lower multiples for different reasons, though. The more likely comparison is 2017’s Everything, Everything which started with $11.7 million and finished with $34.1 million. Following that trend would put Five Feet Apart in the $40 million range, enough for a small profit.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World came in at #4 for the weekend with $9.3 million. That’s down 36% from last weekend, which puts the film at $135.6 million domestically and $466.5 million worldwide. The movie is on course to close at around $155 million domestically, a hit on its $129 million budget.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral slipped a not-bad 35% in its third weekend to $8.1 million. The Madea comedy currently sits at $59.1 million domestically and $59.8 million worldwide. It is looking like it should finish with about $70 million, ranking in the top tier of the Madea films and good for profit against a $20 million budget.

Coming in at #6 was No Manches Frida 2. The Spanish-language comedy sequel did stellar business, bringing in $3.9 million in just 472 theaters for the second-best per-theater average of the top ten. That’s slightly above the $3.6 million start for the first film from September of 2016. The movie is predictably indexing well on the West Coast and Southwest, both Hispanic-heavy markets. The first movie made it to $11.6 million, and there’s no reason to expect this one won’t do similar business. There’s no word on the budget, but Pantelion Films has to be happy here.

The big bomb of the weekend was Captive State. The sci-fi flick brought in just $3.2 million, an ugly result for a film that cost $25 million. Captive State flew well under the radar in terms of awareness and the reviews didn’t help at a lukewarm 46% on RT. Those who saw it didn’t like it either, with a lousy C- CinemaScore. Expect this one to vanish soon from theaters as the box office gets increasingly genre-heavy in the coming weeks. $10 million would be a generous hope in terms of domestic gross, and international numbers won’t help it hit a profit.

The Lego Movie 2 is taking a hit from the animated competition and was down 45% in its sixth weekend, to $2.1 million. The animated sequel is now up to $101.3 million domestically and $171.4 million domestically, down significantly from the first film’s totals. It should end its run at around $110 million, which at least doesn’t lose Warner Bros. much money against the $99 million budget plus marketing.

Alita: Battle Angel dropped an okay 41% to $1.9 million in its fifth. The sci-fi action film brought its totals to $81.8 million domestically and $394 million worldwide. The film still has a chance at breakeven thanks to the overseas numbers; in the US, it should close out at $88 million or so. The budget was $170 million.

Green Book spent what is sure to be its last week in the top ten after a stellar run, down 49% in its eighteenth week with $2.5 million. The Best Picture winner is now at $82.6 million domestically and $274.6 million worldwide, huge against a $23 million budget.

Next weekend should see Captain Marvel cede the top spot to Us. The Jordan Peele horror film is riding a wave of critical acclaim (100% on RT) to a likely $45 million to $50 million start. Docudrama Hotel Mumbai opens in limited release.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Captain Marvel – $69.3 million ($266.2 million total)
2. Wonder Park – $16 million ($16 million total)
3. Five Feet Apart – $13.2 million ($13.2 million total)
4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – $9.3 million ($135.6 million total)
5. A Madea Family Funeral – $8.1 million ($59.1 million total)
6. No Manches Frida 2 – $3.6 million ($3.6 million total)
7. Captive State – $3.2 million ($3.2 million total)
8. The Lego Movie 2 – $2.1 million ($101.3 million total)
9. Alita: Battle Angel – $1.9 million ($81.8 million total)
10. Green Book – $1.3 million ($82.6 million total)