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411’s TV Renewal Predictions: 24: Legacy Looks Done, Taken Fighting Hard For Renewal

April 2, 2017 | Posted by Jeremy Thomas

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2016 – 2017 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and this is a thing we’re going to try for this season. The beginning of the year is about the time that viewers and TV executives alike start wondering which shows will survive to see the next season, and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back in the fall.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

It was mostly a quiet week on the renewal front, as shows stayed pretty stable and thus not much changed in terms of predictions. The most notable movement was an entirely expected one as ABC pulled the plug on Time After Time. The Sunday-airing time travel drama started out terribly and continued to drop, to the point that the last two weeks were a dreadful 0.44 demo rating. That would be a fine rating on The CW, but on ABC at 9 PM on a Sunday that’s ridiculously low and thus the show has been pulled from airing after only five episodes. American Crime is still on the air and will probably finish out its run in the hopes that the network can pull a last round of Emmy nominations for it, but with its third episode coming in at a 0.32 there is absolutely no chance it comes back for a fourth run.

ABC had better news on Wednesday as live-action/CGI hybrid sitcom Imaginary Mary premiered to a decent 1.37 rating. There is a caveat there, in that the show aired in the extremely strong Wednesday lineup of sitcoms and lost 20% of its lead-in from The Goldbergs. ABC is in generally good shape with its comedies; its drama where the network is really struggling. But if the show can hold onto that audience (by no means an assurance), it should be a lock for a second season.

On NBC, Powerless returned after a two-week hiatus and posted a dire 0.6 demo rating, more or less ensuring its one-and-done status. It’s not the only NBC comedy in trouble though, as Trial & Error has been sinking quickly following its okay debut. The court comedy has aired two episodes back-to-back each week and it has to be distressing to the network that the show can’t even keep viewers within those two-episode blocks; this week for example, the show had a 0.96 at 9 PM and a 0.77 at 9:30. The good start has it on the Bubble still, but it’s only hanging there by a thread and may well drop to Likely Cancelled next week. Meanwhile, Taken is refusing to go down without a fight and gained viewers (and ratings) this week, which may just be enough to earn it a second season. The network has enough invested into the show to be inclined toward giving it a second chance and its ratings have been stable-ish since its initial drop. That said, right now it’s only just above the slate of shows that are looking at cancellation like Blindspot — itself showing a lot of stability in recent weeks, though not good raw numbers — and the already-concluded Timeless. It’ll be a horse race between these shows to see who comes back and who doesn’t.

FOX has a couple of shows that are its focus now in the renewal game, both of which we’ve been talking about in 24: Legacy and Shots Fired. The later’s numbers remain inflated because of that Super Bowl start; without the premiere it stands at a 0.92 average. That’s cancellation territory, especially when you consider that the network has a lot of stronger dramas already renewed or nearing renewal. As such, I’ve moved it out of the Bubble. Shots Fired started out very lackluster but had a decent drop in its second episode. It will have to maintain what it currently has to have any chance at renewal, but the curtain hasn’t closed yet. Up next is the highly-anticipated Prison Break on Tuesday, which will probably be the final nail in 24’s coffin if it starts well.

Not much with CBS and The CW, since they’ve made most of their renewals already. The only thing of note there is The Originals. The Vampire Diaries spin-off didn’t start great but rose in its second week and has maintained that second-week number, to the point that it is up year-to-year from last season. Its hard to see it get cancelled, especially with Diaries being off the network. iZombie premieres this week and will give the youngest network its final show of the season; if it does well, The CW may just bring back all of its returning series and have only Frequency and No Tomorrow as its dead shows this season.

ABC

Renewed:
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.15)
* Scandal (1.57)
* The Middle (1.56)
* How to Get Away with Murder (1.30)

Likely Renewal:
* Modern Family (2.19)
* The Goldbergs (1.80)
* Speechless (1.64)
* Black-ish (1.58)
* American Housewife (1.52)
* Designated Survivor (1.37)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.21)
* Last Man Standing (1.14)
* Once Upon a Time (1.00)

Bubble:
* The Real O’Neals (0.93)
* Dr. Ken (0.88)
* Agents of SHIELD (0.75)

Likely Cancellation:
* Secrets and Lies (0.76)
* The Catch (0.75)
* Quantico (0.73)
* American Crime (0.42)

Cancelled:
* Notorious (0.86) – Essentially Cancelled (no new episodes ordered)
* Conviction (0.65) – Essentially Cancelled (no new episodes ordered, cast members have joined other pilots)
* Time After Time (0.55)

Too Early to Call:
* Imaginary Mary (1.37)
* Downward Dog (Premieres TBA)

CBS

Renewed:
* The Big Bang Theory (3.23)
* NCIS (1.79)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.70)
* Bull (1.53)
* Mom (1.44)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (1.38)
* Man with a Plan (1.31)
* Life in Pieces (1.29)
* Superior Donuts (1.27)
* Scorpion (1.22)
* NCIS: New Orleans (1.21)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.19)
* Blue Bloods (1.18)
* MacGyver (1.11)
* Madam Secretary (0.94)

Likely Renewal:
* The Great Indoors (1.50)
* Criminal Minds (1.39)

Bubble:
* 2 Broke Girls (1.34)
* Code Black (0.97)

Likely Cancellation:
* The Odd Couple (1.02)
* Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (0.88)
* Pure Genius (0.86)
* Training Day (0.75)
* Elementary (0.67)
* Ransom (0.44)

Cancelled:
* Doubt (0.68)

Too Early to Call:

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (2.68)
* The Good Place (1.35)
* Superstore (1.20)
* Shades of Blue (0.86)

Likely Renewal:
* Chicago Fire (1.60)
* Law and Order: SVU (1.43)
* Chicago PD (1.41)
* Chicago Med (1.28)
* Chicago Justice (1.26)

Bubble:
* Taken (1.18)
* Trial & Error (1.08)
* The Blacklist (1.06)

Likely Cancellation:
* Timeless (1.10)
* Blindspot (1.08)
* The Blacklist: Redemption (0.78)
* Powerless (0.77)
* Emerald City (0.72)

Cancelled:
* Grimm (0.81) – Series Finale Aired

Too Early to Call:
* Great News (Premieres April 25th)

FOX

Renewed:
* Empire (3.09)
* The Simpsons (1.95)
* Lethal Weapon (1.57)
* Star (1.34)
* The Mick (1.19)
* Lucifer (1.10)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.02)

Likely Renewal:
* Family Guy (1.33)
* Gotham (1.14)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.03)

Bubble:
* The Last Man on Earth (0.94)
* New Girl (0.94)

Likely Cancellation:
* 24: Legacy (1.60)
* Son of Zorn (1.29)
* APB (0.86)
* Pitch (0.83)
* Making History (0.77)
* Rosewood (0.69)
* The Exorcist (0.68)
* Scream Queens (0.61)
* Sleepy Hollow (0.50)

Cancelled:
* Bones (0.81) – Season Finale Aired

Too Early to Call:
* Shots Fired (1.06)
* Prison Break (Premieres April 4th)

The CW

Renewed:
* The Flash (1.07)
* Supergirl (0.78)
* Arrow (0.64)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.64)
* Supernatural (0.63)
* Riverdale (0.42)
* Jane the Virgin (0.37)
* The 100 (0.36)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.20)

Likely Renewal:
* None

Bubble:
* The Originals (0.38)

Likely Cancellation:
* Frequency (0.27)
* No Tomorrow (0.26)

Cancelled:
* The Vampire Diaries (0.38) – Series Finale Aired
* Reign (0.21) – Previously-Announced Final Season

Too Early to Call:
* iZombie (Premieres April 4th)