What to Do After Cejudo vs. Dillashaw

Well, that wasn’t how it was supposed to go.

T.J. Dillashaw went to 125-pounds seeking history. He wanted to become MMA’s fifth major dual weight-class simultaneous champion (joining Dan Henderson, Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, and Amanda Nunes). Unlike the others, Dillashaw aimed to secure his second title by moving down a weight class. He’d even started talking about wanting to challenge Max Holloway for the 145-pound strap.

Henry Cejudo wanted a big name on his resumé, and he wanted to save the endangered UFC flyweight division.

To the UFC, the winner wasn’t so important. If in fact they do plan on removing the flyweight division from its ranks (which certainly appears to be the case), either result could get them to that end game. Dillashaw winning the flyweight title would make it easy to close the division. Cejudo winning would open the door for him to move up to bantamweight to challenge for Dillashaw’s belt there. These were the logical splintering paths based on Saturday night’s result.

But then the result complicated those paths.

Henry Cejudo beat T.J. Dillashaw in a way few predicted: a 32-second TKO win. It was only Cejudo’s second stoppage victory of his ten-fight UFC run. Dillashaw had only been stopped once before, suffering an early career TKO loss to future flyweight contender John Dodson in his first official UFC fight. Those that predicted a Cejudo victory likely would have expected a competitive decision win, not a 32-second fireworks show.

Now, where the paths were once relatively clear, there are questions going forward. There is some minor controversy regarding an early stoppage, but the result is the result, and it will influence the UFC’s decision making.

It’s exceedingly rare to see an immediate championship rematch following a first round stoppage, happening only twice in UFC history. The first time was in 2004, when Vitor Belfort’s punch missed Randy Couture, but the seam of his glove sliced Couture’s eyelid. The cut ended the bout in 49 seconds, giving Belfort a fluky title victory. Because Belfort’s victory was generally regarded as dumb luck, the UFC ran it back right away, with Couture retaining his title.

The second time occurred in the strawweight division, where Joanna Jędrzejczyk dominated for more than two years. In 2017, Rose Namajunas pulled off a major upset and knocked Jędrzejczyk out in the first round. Since Jędrzejczyk was easily the biggest star in the division (Paige VanZant’s fame aside) and had dominated its ranks, the UFC motioned to put the two back in the cage. Namajunas won again, leaving no doubt that she deserved her status at the top of the division.

Now, the question becomes whether the UFC will make T.J. Dillashaw its third exception.

The most significant consideration in determining that is whether the UFC will proceed with closing down the flyweight division. If the answer is yes, then they have no choice but to do the rematch. Despite the accomplishments of bantamweights light Raphael Assuncao and Marlon Moraes, Cejudo became the bantamweight title’s most deserving challenger as soon as he knocked out its holder.

What’s more, it will be difficult to Dillashaw to move forward as champion and build his star power with this loss hanging over him. Although he is the legitimate bantamweight champion, if he doesn’t avenge the loss, it will loom over his reign and detract from whatever he accomplishes during it.

On the flip side, if the UFC decides to—at least for now—keep the flyweight division, the water becomes murkier. What is the sense in having Cejudo compete at bantamweight if you keeping the division? With a second victory over Dillashaw, Cejudo could permanently move up in weight and leave flyweight completely devoid of stars (which would likely result in the UFC shutting it down anyway). While a loss to Dillashaw in a rematch shouldn’t hurt Cejudo badly (with the idea that each fighter won on his home turf), it would stall his momentum.

When it comes down to it, the UFC is likely going to go with the biggest fight they can feasibly make for Dillashaw and Cejudo. Dillashaw’s top bantamweight contenders are Raphael Assuncao and Marlon Moraes, neither of whom means anything in terms of drawing. Cejudo’s top contender is Jussier Formiga, followed closely by Joseph Benavidez. The Benavidez fight would be a minor attraction, as it’s a rematch of Cejudo’s last loss, while the Formiga fight wouldn’t move any numbers.

That leaves the rematch at bantamweight. It’s the biggest fight for both Dillashaw and Cejudo, and still makes sense despite how quickly it went at flyweight. Most likely, that’s the direction the UFC will go toward.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.