mma / Columns

Mayweather vs. McGregor Matches Fact Against Hype

August 22, 2017 | Posted by Dan Plunkett
Floyd Mayweather Conor McGregor Mayweather vs. McGregor - Leonard Ellerbe

The countdown to perhaps the biggest fight in 20 or more years has ticked under one week.

On Saturday, Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor will box in front of some 20,000 frivolous spenders in Las Vegas and millions more around the world. The outcome is a foregone conclusion: Mayweather, the 49-0 boxer who even at forty is significantly faster than his opponent, will route McGregor and likely stop him.

The fight is a farce of the most epic proportions, a fact everyone with hand in the large pie wants to obfuscate. The more people that believe McGregor can or will do the impossible, the more people that will buy the fight.

Showtime’s All Access preview series shows Mayweather visiting his family, going horseback riding, and hanging out with comedian James Corden. Last week, he travelled to Los Angeles for an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live. If you have followed this build, the message is clear: Floyd Mayweather is not training seriously for Conor McGregor. This lie is being propagated so more people will buy into McGregor’s chances.

As Mayweather angles to make it seem like his head isn’t in the game, the other side of the equation boasts about the danger McGregor poses. UFC President Dana White, one of the bout’s head swindlers, speaks of his personal turnaround on McGregor as a boxer. White, who dismissed the fight even happening earlier this year, recently touted McGregor’s supposed sparring domination of an ill-prepared and retired Paulie Malignaggi. He released brief clips of sparring footage from the final two rounds, showing McGregor battering Malignaggi and ultimately knocking him down.

On Wednesday, the Nevada Athletic Commission voted to approve eight ounce gloves for the bout, lighter than its own rules allow. The bout contract had specified ten ounce gloves. Mayweather called for eight ounce gloves on social media on August 1, likely – and correctly – feeling that lighter gloves would make people believe McGregor has a better chance at catching him.

The promotional strategy appears to be working well thus far. The odds on Mayweather have fallen to -400 at some sports books, down from around -800 when the fight was announced, and around -2000 when the fight was first discussed. On pay-per-view, five million buys, a figure well above the top-selling pay-per-view of all-time (4.6 million buys for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao) and double number two on the list, is within striking distance. At the gate, it is already the second-highest combat sports gate of all-time, and may end up topping the $72 million from Mayweather vs. Pacquiao.

In the final days before the fight, the promoters will aim to move the odds closer and therefore the sales higher. According to the Boston Herald, a special titled How Conor McGregor Wins may air on Fox this week. The promoters will battle ramped up media coverage calling the spade a spade (although many will surely tote the promotional lines), and their level of success in the battle may determine whether the fight breaks the pay-per-view record or not.

But what is fact and what is fiction in this promotion? Is this tower of hype built with cards, or does it have a sturdier foundation?

To start with the favorite, Floyd Mayweather is surely more confident heading into this fight than he has been for any bout in his career. He is one of the best boxers ever fighting a relative novice. The push for eight ounce gloves is a testament to both his confidence and a stroke of promotional genius. The discussion point around the lighter gloves will be how it helps McGregor, not how it will help Mayweather as he attacks McGregor’s body before moving upstairs.

Is Mayweather taking the fight seriously? I have little doubt that Mayweather, whose work ethic is legendary, is training hard for McGregor. He is not a fighter that picks and chooses which fights he takes seriously. The All Access features and the Kimmel interview were well-calculated. Traveling to Los Angeles for an interview during the final days of training camp is not common, but it is only an hour’s flight from Las Vegas.

On the underdog’s side, there is little to glean from McGregor’s sparring sessions with Paulie Malignaggi from the outside. McGregor is not completely incompetent as a boxer, nor will he find himself unable to touch Mayweather a single time. The point is that he is far below Mayweather’s league. His lack of real fight experience in a boxing ring is going to hinder him rather than work as an unorthodox tool in his favor.

Does Conor McGregor have a chance? The easy answer is that everyone has a chance, but that brings more hope to McGregor’s cause than is present in reality. While the betting odds are much closer, McGregor’s chances of victory are less realistic than Buster Douglas had against Mike Tyson. There have been matchups with larger skill disparities in both boxing and MMA, but none on this scale.

McGregor defeating Mayweather would have a well-earned spot atop lists of the biggest upsets in sports history. That is McGregor’s chance. It is not a good one.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.