411 Box Office Report: Predator: Badlands Soars To $40 Million For Top Spot

The Yautja ruled the box office this weekend as Predator: Badlands defied expectations to overperform. 20th Century Studios’ sci-fi action film opened with $40 million to claim the #1 spot with ease. That’s well above the expected $25 million coming into the weekend and represents the best opening for a Predator film to date. The previous high was $38.3 million for Alien vs. Predator in 2004.

The opening marks a big with for the studio and the franchise, the latter of which has been under Dan Trachtenberg’s purview since Prey in 2022. It marks an astounding turnaround for a franchise that last floundered at the box office in 2018. That was for Shane Black’s The Predator, which deeply disappointed at just $52 million domestically and $159.5 million worldwide against an $88 million budget.

20th Century’s marketing should be commended here, but the bulk of the credit goes to Trachtenberg. The filmmaker found success with Prey, but that film was a straight-to-Hulu release. Its strong numbers (both critically and in streaming financials) allowed the director to pitch two films. Predator: Killer of Killers marked another Hulu success earlier this year and Badlands reps a win for the alien hunter on the big screen.

Badlands came into the weekend with a lot of buzz. Critic scores were strong, with an 85% aggregate on Rotten Tomatoes. But it’s the word of mouth that truly lifted it. The film scored a 99% RT audience rating and an A- CinemaScore. The latter is the best in the franchise, topping the original and <>Predator 2’s B+ scores. The word of mouth is what lifted the grosses, with estimates growing throughout the weekend.

It must be said that the film still has a ways to go before it hits profit. Predator: Badlands cost $105 million, the most expensive in the series yet. But with an additional $40 million overseas for an $80 million worldwide start, it’s positioned well. Even with sci-fi action competition next week, it should be able to hit $110 million or so in the US, perhaps higher. That will make this an ultimately successful film.

Impressively, most of the holdovers had small drops from last weekend. Foremost among those is Regretting You. The romantic drama was down a mere 9% from last weekend to pull in $7.1 million. That brings the Colleen Hoover adaptation to $38.6 million domestically and $70.1 million worldwide. Those are great numbers against a $30 million budget. Paramount is looking happy about this film. It should cross the finish line at around $50 million stateside, a sleeper hit for the studio.

Black Phone 2 had a solid hold, dropping just 36% to $5.3 million. That’s almost exactly on par with the first film’s fourth weekend. Black Phone 2 now has $70.1 million in the US and $120.4 million worldwide, a hit against a $30 million budget. It now looks likely to cross $80 million stateside, perhaps a bit higher.

A number of adult dramas tried to counterprogram against Predator Badlands this weekend. The most successful was Sarah’s Oil, which opened to $4.8 million. The Amazon-MGM period drama opened a bit higher than expected despite little media attention and the crowded marketplace.

Sarah’s Oil had very few reviews, but the ones it got were largely positive. Those who saw it loved it, with an A+ CinemaScore and a 99% RT audience rating. It’s not yet clear whether the film will be able to hold on very well. Word of mouth would suggest so, but the lack of attention it has received often results in films fading away. No word on its budget but it should be able to get to at least $10 million to $12 million domestically.

Sony Pictures’ Nuremberg opened at #5 with a soft $4 million. It’s another low-profile release despite a big cast that includes Russell Crowe, Rami Malek and more.

Nuremberg’s muted release was a matter of Sony playing it safe with a politically charged topic; somehow, Nazi trials are controversial these days. Half-joke aside, the fact remains that films about Nazis don’t play well at the box office and haven’t since 2014, when The Monuments Men grossed $158.7 million – and even that was a modest success at best against a $70 million budget.

We also have to acknowledge that Nuremberg didn’t have much buzz around it. It premiered at TIFF and garnered a mildly positive 68% RT critic score. That’s a “wait till home video” number for a movie like this. We don’t know the budget for Nuremberg but it’s likely to vanish quickly from the top 10. $10 million is its likely closing target.

Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc was down 42% in its third weekend. The anime film grossed $3.6 million this weekend. Sony and Crunchyroll are happy with it thus far; it has $38 million domestically and $158 million worldwide. It should close out in the US around $43 million.

Bugonia held on well in its second weekend of wide release. Yorgos Lanthimos sci-fi dark comedy added $3.5 million to its coffers. That lands the film at $12.3 million domestically and $23.2 million worldwide. There’s still plenty of money to make up considering the $45 million budget, but it’s about where the studio saw it. The hope is for awards to boost it so it becomes a home viewing hit. It will end its domestic run around $20 million.

Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s Die, My Love was at the bottom of the new releases in the top 10. The thriller took in just $2.8 million to start. That’s the lowest wide release start of either star’s career.

To be fair, this wasn’t expected to be a box office smash. It’s challenging material about postpartum depression and psychosis, not exactly popcorn fare. And that’s why it has a D+ CinemaScore and a 45% RT audience rating despite a 76% RT critic aggregate. Audiences don’t rate depressing films well as a rule and most recent F CinemaScores went to films that weren’t crowd-pleasers.

Much like the other new drama releases, we don’t know the budget on this Mubi release. But Mubi calculates streaming more heavily into their profit projections than other studios. Die, My Love is destined to drop from the top 10 quickly and probably won’t top $6 million theatrically.

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere stabilized too little, too late as it fell 42% in its third weekend. The music biopic added $2.2 million, a welcome sign from 20th Century Studios but not one that will save the film. Deliver Me From Nowhere now has $20.4 million domestically and $34.6 million worldwide from a $50 million budget. The final domestic take should still be around $25 million.

Tron: Ares closed out the top 10 with $1.8 million. That’s a 41% in the sci-fi bomb’s fifth weekend. Ares has now grossed $71.3 million in the US and $137.3 million worldwide, a big money loser against a $180 million budget. The domestic total is maybe hitting $75 million before it closes out.

We’ll likely have another new #1 next weekend as The Running Man opens. The adaptation of the Stephen King novella should start in the $25 million range. Also opening is Lionsgate’s Now You See Me: Now You Don’t which is looking at a mid-teens start. And finally, Oz Perkins’ Keeper is targeting a high single digit to $10 million launch.

Box Office Top Ten (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)

1. Predator: Badlands – $40 million ($40 million total, $80 million WW)
2. Regretting You – $7.1 million ($38.6 million total, $71 million WW)
3. Black Phone 2 – $5.3 million ($70.1 million total, $120.4 million WW)
4. Sarah’s Oil – $4.5 million ($4.5 million total, $4.5 million WW)
5. Nuremberg – $4 million ($4 million total, $4 million WW)
6. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc – $3.6 million ($38 million total, $158 million WW)
7. Bugonia – $3.5 million ($12.3 million total, $23.2 million WW)
8. Die, My Love – $2.8 million ($2.8 million total, $2,8 million WW)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere – $2.2 million ($20.4 million total, $34.6 million WW)
10. Tron: Ares – $1.8 million ($71.3 million total, $137.3 million WW)