411 Box Office Report: A Quiet Place: Day One Opens Big, Inside Out 2 Stays #1

A Quiet Place: Day One opened with big numbers this weekend, but it had to settle for #2 at the box office behind Inside Out 2. The Inside Out sequel held onto the #1 spot for a third weekend with $57.4 million, down just 43% from last weekend’s $101.2 million take. The numbers add up to the eight-best third weekend of all time at the box office, just short of The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s $59.9 million third weekend from April of last year.

Inside Out 2 is continuing to pace ahead of all other Pixar films; the highest-grossing Pixar movie of all-time, The Incredibles 2, was at $440 million at this point, while Inside Out 2 has $469.3 million domestically and has passed the billion-dollar mark worldwide with $1.014 billion. That strongly suggests that the movie will be able to top Incredibles 2’s $607.9 million domestic total, though it’s not a sure thing yet. Either way, this is a massive hit for the studio against a $200 million budget.

Meanwhile, A Quiet Place: Day One wasn’t far behind. The horror prequel scared up $53 million, passing the first film’s $50.2 million start for the best opening for the franchise to date. It’s an overperformance for a film that was expected to take in $45 million to $50 million heading into the weekend and speaks to the strength of the franchise’s goodwill with moviegoers.

There were reasons to suspect that Day One might open a touch lower. Prequels don’t often outperform the originals, especially when there’s an entirely new cast; look at Furiosa for a good example of that. But Paramount marketed this film very well and Lupita Nyong’o has been building her horror and general box office cred for some time between Us and the Black Panther movies. The lack of direct competition helped as well, with the only direct demographic competitor (Bad Boys: Ride or Die) being in its fourth week. The positive critical buzz (an 84% aggregated score on Rotten Tomatoes) didn’t hurt, and word of mouth is quite solid at a 74% RT audience score and a B+ CinemaScore.

A Quiet Place: Day One is already well on the path to profit, with an additional $45.5 million overseas for a worldwide $98.5 million start against a $60 million budget plus marketing. While it has some horror competition coming next week in MaXXXine, this film should be able to pass $160 million in the US and will be a profitable venture for Paramount.

The weekend box office news was far less positive for Kevin Costner, whose Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 opened with an expectedly low $11 million. That’s right in the $10 million to $12 million projected for it coming into the weekend. That’s less than half the opening weekend of last year’s big western Killers of the Flower Moon, which got off to a $23.3 million start, and below the $14 million opening of the last western Costner directed, 2003’s Open Range.

Westerns have been a hard sell at the box office for many years at this point; the last to become a big-budget hit was Quintin Tarantino’s Django Unchained in 2012. But this has long been a 20-year passion project for Costner, who put up money to finance the film and waived his fees to get made. The film is the first part of a planned four-film series from the actor/director with filming on the sequel already completed.

Warner Bros. is not on the hook for any of the budgeting or marketing; that was all Costner. And it’s a substantial amount; the budget is reported to be $50 million to $100 million (it isn’t clear whether the latter number refers to the whole franchise or not).

Either way, that’s a tall order for the film to make back considering its start. The biggest problem, outside of the genre, is that people just aren’t excited about the movie. Critical reaction is middling with a 40% RT aggregated score, and audience reaction is not the best either with a 70% RT audience score and a B- CinemaScore.

Long story short: Horizon has a ways to go before it will see any profit. It hasn’t yet opened overseas, and as a point of comparison Open Range hit $58.3 million in a different era of the movie business on better reviews and with a slightly higher opening weekend. Horizon: Chapter 1 is probably going to close out with around $35 million or so, not enough for a hit no matter how you slice it unless overseas markets suddenly begin appreciating American westerns.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die was down a solid 45% in its fourth weekend to $10.3 million. The action film has now grossed $165.3 million stateside and $332 million worldwide, a full-on box office hit for Sony against a $100 million budget. As it currently stands, it should finish off with around $190 million to $200 million in the US.

Indian cinema hit at the box office this weekend, first with Kalki 2898 AD which opened at #5 with $5.4 million. The Telugu language sci-fi film is up to $11 million total in the US after having opened on Wednesday. That’s a strong start for a film that needs it, being India’s most expensive film ever made with a reported $72 million budget. Kalki should be in fine shape; though it will (as usual with Indian cinema) leave the US charts quickly, it’s rolling to good numbers overseas with $49.4 million worldwide thus far.

The Bikeriders had a rough second weekend, falling 66% to $3.3 million. That’s a hefty drop for a drama, a genre that tends to be much less frontloaded than blockbusters. Bikeriders has grossed $16.2 million domestically and $23.7 million worldwide, meaning that it will need to stay strong internationally if it wants to have a hope of making back its $30 million budget. It should finish out with around $25 million in the US

The Garfield Movie was down 47% in its sixth weekend to $2 million. The animated family film is a hit at $89.6 million domestically and $239.9 million worldwide against a $60 million budget. It is still on course for around $95 million by the end of its domestic run.

Kingdom Of Planet of the Apes was down 55% in its eighth weekend, bringing in $1.7 million. The 20th Century Studios film is now at $168.1 million domestically and $387.3 million worldwide, a big hit against a $160 million budget. It still seems likely to end its domestic run at around $175 million.

The second Indian film in the top 10 landed at #9 with Jatt & Juliet 3, the latest entry in Friday Entertainment’s romantic comedy franchise. The film has totaled $1.5 million domestically and $2.9 million worldwide thus far.

Closing out the top 10 was Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film Kinds of Kindness. The triptych film is Lanthimos’ follow-up to Poor Things and is not going to get to that film’s numbers, having brought in $1.5 million in its expansion from 5 to 490 theaters. But it’s still in fine shape for now, with $2 million domestically and $3.2 million worldwide with plenty of room to spread out. Lanthimos’ movies tend to find their profit on home viewing and that should be the case here unless Searchlight Pictures platforms it up well; the budget was $15 million.

Next weekend will see a new #1 as Despicable Me 4 takes Inside Out 2’s spot. The latest film in the Universal/Illumination franchise is looking at $60 million to $85 million over three days and over $100 million for the five-day weekend (including 4th of July).

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Inside Out 2 – $57.4 million ($469.3 million total, $1.014 billion WW)
2. A Quiet Place: Day One – $53 million ($53 million total, $98.5 million WW)
3. Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 – $11 million ($11 million total, $11 million WW)
4. Bad Boys: Ride Or Die – $10.3 million ($165.3 million total, $332 million WW)
5. Kalki 2898 AD – $5.4 million ($11 million total, $49.4 million WW)
6. The Bikeriders – $3.3 million ($16.2 million total, $23.7 million WW)
7. The Garfield Movie – $2 million ($89.6 million total, $239.9 million WW)
8. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – $1.7 million ($168.1 million total, $387.3 million WW)
9. Jatt & Juliet 3 – $1.5 million ($1.5 million total, $2.9 million WW)
10. Kinds of Kindness – $1.5 million ($2 million total, $3.2 million WW)