411 Box Office Report: Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker Tallies $175 Million Opening

The final film of the Star Wars saga claimed #1 at the box office, as Rise of Skywalker took off for a $175.5 million weekend. Those numbers, while still obviously fantastic overall, are a relative disappointment considering the film was expected to open in the $200 million range. While the opening still ranks as the third-best Star Wars start of all-time behind only The Last Jedi ($248 million) and The Force Awakens ($220 million), it’s not quite the result Disney wanted to cap off their record-breaking year.

Just to state the obvious here for clarity: this is not some statement that the franchise is dying, nor is the film anything short of a massive hit as expected. It’s simply less of a massive hit than many thought it would. There’s already plenty of ink, digital and otherwise, being spilled in a “what went wrong” capacity, and that’s a bit misleading. Still, there were a ton of factors that went into this less-than-expected start.

To start with, Star Wars has taken a little bit of a beating over the last couple of years. Star Wars: The Last Jedi was a polarizing film and the franchise went into Rise of Skywalker having to deal with the baggage around the mainstream conversation about the film. The Rise of Skywalker press tour took an approach to try and sideline that debate, with director J.J. Abrams and members of the cast largely siding with those who were critical of Last Jedi. That had a little bit of a backlash, which honestly probably didn’t hurt the film’s performance too much; however, it did somewhat dampen enthusiasm, especially since it did little to mollify critical fans.

Then the reviews began rolling in and they were, for Star Wars, lackluster. The movie has a 57% score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is the lowest for a film in the franchise since the disastrous 2008 Clone Wars movie earned an 18%. It’s only slightly higher than the 53% for the much-hated Episode I – The Phantom Menace. That seems to have done a number on the numbers, which started out well but had steeper day-to-day slips than expected. That can also be chalked up to the word of mouth; while a B+ CinemaScore is nothing to trash, it’s again the lowest for a Star Wars film with the exception of Clone Wars’ B-.

There’s an argument out there that Star Wars has become too omnipresent, with films being released too rapidly in a way that results in diminishing returns. There’s even been a theory that The Mandalorian’s well-recieved Disney+ launch made fans stay home to watch the series instead of seeing the movie. That’s all nonsense. Disney+ released The Mandalorian on Wednesday as a counter to that very concern, and a constant flow of films certainly hasn’t hurt Marvel. The difference is that Marvel films continue to keep fans excited, even the few that are polarizing, while Star Wars doesn’t have the same creative cohesiveness around it.

Again, with all that said, Disney’s still going to be raking in the money on this film. In addition to the $175.5 million domestically, the film brought in $198 million overseas for a $373.5 million worldwide start. The traditional Christmas and New Years holds will help the film tremendously, and it is still well on the way to $600 million-plus domestically. The budget was $275 million and even that prohibitive cost will be made up with plenty of money to line the Disney vault left over.

Coming in at #2 was Jumanji: The Next Level, which nailed down $26.1 million in its second weekend. That’s a drop of 56%, which is fairly good considering the film was up against Star Wars and had an overperforming weekend to start its run. The ensemble action-adventure film is currently pacing behind Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, but that film’s first week was the week between Christmas and New Year’s when box office is up all throughout the weekend. The Next Level is now up to $101.9 million domestically and $311.9 million worldwide, well on its way to a hefty profit on its $130 million budget. A final domestic gross of $325 million is still well within reason.

Frozen II held on well in its fourth weekend, down 36% to $12.3 million. The animated sequel is now at $386.5 million domestically and $1.052 billion worldwide. Frozen II is of course a massive hit and is right on course for $425 million domestically against a $150 million budget.

Opening all the way down at #4 was Cats. The Tom Hooper-directed adaptation of the Andrew Lloyd Webber musical was a disaster with $6.5 million. That’s roughly half of the $12 million it was expected to open at coming into the weekend, and even $12 million would have been bad for expensive film. Regarding that budget: while the Guardian claims the film cost roughly $300 million, that’s way off by any estimation; the actual cost is reportedly around $90 million to $100 million (not including marketing, of course). That’s still not good, obviously, and with such a low opening, this is a disaster on every level.

There’s so much to say about how Cats went wrong, it would require its own column. But just to break down the main failings here, the biggest one is that no one was demanding a big-screen version of Cats. It’s one of the most infamously-polarizing Broadway musicals of all-time, a fun but bonkers story that was incredibly popular on Broadway but also rather disdained. It’s also a story that only plays well on the stage because of the medium. Cats has also been out of the spotlight for years; its lengthy run on Broadway ended in 2000 and while there have been revivals, its time had largely passed.

You also have to factor in the mountain of negative buzz the film had. Sure, you can pack in all the stars possible, but they didn’t help the risible reaction to the trailer when it released in July with a serious case of creepy CGI and uncanny valley. Things didn’t get better throughout the marketing of the film, and then when the release hit — well, the critics said it all. Comparisons to furries abounded in reviews that added up to an 18% RT score, complemented by an C+ CinemaScore that is abjectly awful for the musical genre.

All of this means an utter disaster for Universal Pictures — and no, the release of an improved visual effect version won’t help because the smell of failure is all round this one now, and that doesn’t come off easy. Cats has only opened in one market overseas so far, the UK, where it did respectably with $4.4 million. There’s virtually no way the offshore revenues will reach a level that keeps this from costing Universal a lot of money. Domestically it won’t have the holiday legs of a lot of films, and while it could potentially make it to $30 million or more, The Greatest Showman this is not.

Knives Out had another solid weekend, posting $6.1 million for a nice 33% drop. The Rian Johnson-directed ensemble film is now up to $89.6 million domestically and $185.6.5 million worldwide, all on a budget of $40 million. It is still looking at a final domestic gross above $100 million.

Lionsgate’s other film, Bombshell, had a quiet start with $5.1 million. That’s only slightly below the $7 million start that was expected for it. The drama based on the sexual harassment lawsuits filed by Gretchen Carlson and others against Fox News’ Roger Ailes was never expected to be a huge breakout at the start, always relying on the likely award nominations it will earn for Charlize Theron and perhaps Margot Robbie — both of whom have Golden Globe noms — to keep it performing strongly in successive weeks.

Bombshell’s perfectly average performance comes on the back of the best reviews of the weekend at a merely okay 65% RT score, and while there’s no CinemaScore the PostTrak “definite recommend” is at a very solid 70%. This film won’t do much overseas, but Lionsgate already sold off those distribution rights so they’ve made their money there. It should do well throughout the season, with award season determining its final gross. The film cost $32 million.

Things didn’t get much better for Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell in its second weekend, as it followed up a low start with a 45% drop to $2.6 million. This is more bad news for the film, which is shaping up to be Eastwood’s lowest grossing wide-release film since True Crime in 1999. Jewell has $9.5 million against a reported $45 million budget, and it may not even reach $25 million at this point.

Crime drama Queen & Slim continues to do just fine, down 48% in its fourth weekend with $1.9 million. The Universal film is now at $36.6 million domestically against a $20 million budget and a lighter marketing budget. It’s now likely to finish off with about $42 million.

Black Christmas took the traditional horror nosedive, down 58% in its second weekend to $1.8 million. The horror remake is now at $7.3 million domestically and $13.3 million worldwide, which are acceptable but not great numbers against a $5 million budget. The film should still be able to make it to $15 million or so in the US, perhaps a bit higher, which will be enough for Universal and Blumhouse to call it a minor win.

Ford v Ferrari closed out the top ten with $1.8 million, off 56% in its sixth weekend. The racing drama is now at $102 million domestically and $193 million worldwide. It’s nearing the end of its box office run and should make it to $110 million, a minor profit against a $97 million budget.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will rule again next weekend, particularly with few new films running against it. The only wide releases are Greta Gerwig’s Little Women remake, targeting about $20 million, and animated comedy Spies in Disguise which is aiming for a low teens number.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – $175.5 million ($175.5 million total)
2. Jumanji: The Next Level – $26.1 million ($101.9 million total)
3. Frozen II – $12.3 million ($386.5 million total)
4. Cats – $6.5 million ($6.5 million total)
5. Knives Out – $6.1 million ($89.6 million total)
6. Bombshell – $5.1 million ($5.5 million total)
7. Richard Jewell – $2.6 million ($9.5 million total)
8. Queen & Slim – $1.9 million ($36.6 million total)
9. Black Christmas – $1.8 million ($7.2 million total)
10. Ford v Ferrari – $1.8 million ($102 million total)