411 Box Office Report: Wicked, Gladiator II Dominate the Weekend

It wasn’t quite at Barbenheimer levels, but Wicked and Gladiator II still delivered a one-two punch at the box office this weekend. Wicked ruled over the weekend with a $114 million opening weekend, marking the third-best opening of 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine’s $211.4 million start and Inside Out 2’s #154.2 million opening.

The start is slightly lower than the $120 million to $130 million that analysts were predicting coming into the weekend, but that shouldn’t be surprising. As huge as Wicked is, it was never going to be Barbie and expectations were a bit high for a nearly three-hour part one of a musical, a genre that has a spotty track record at the box office. For every Wonka or Greatest Showman that scored with audiences, there are several West Side Stories (2021 edition), In the Heights, Cats, Dear Evan Hansens, and The Color Purples that didn’t strike box office gold. Obviously no one was expecting Wicked to bomb, but the point is that the indications were there that this one might not do what some hype-buying analysts were expecting it to do.

Any way you slice it, Universal is going to be very happy here. Wicked is a cash cow they can bank on, both now and when the second part arrives next November, and they put a lot of effort into this with a strong marketing campaign. That paid off when the buzz came in strong; the film has a fantastic 90% aggregated critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. More importantly, audiences love it. The RT audience score is a phenomenal 97%, with an A CinemaScore.

All of that indicates a strong box office run for the film, which has already broken records as the highest start for a Broadway musical adaptation both domestic and globally, with $164.2 million worldwide. It was a spendy film at a $150 million production budget, but this one is going to play strongly throughout the holiday season as a family-friendly four quadrant blockbuster. $350 million domestic is pretty much a sure thing, and it could climb much higher if the the film holds even better than expected.

Meanwhile, Gladiator II was a distant but very respectable #2. The Ridley Scott-directed sequel to his 2000 blockbuster ground in $55.5 million, again slightly below the $60 million some expected for it. Like Wicked, Gladiator II came with a bit of baggage – in this case, being a legacy sequel of a film that no one expected a sequel for and missing that original film’s main star in Russell Crowe.

Despite those negatives, Gladiator II performed quite well all in all. There is no fair comparison to Gladiator — we’re in an entirely different time, and outperforming that film’s $34.8 million start is the absolute least it could have done. It also won’t have Gladiator’s heft box office legs because films are just more front-loaded now than they were in 2000.

There is another reason it won’t have those legs – it’s not as beloved thus far. That’s not to say that Gladiator II sunk with critics or fans; it’s at a fine 71% RT critic aggregate, an 84% RT audience rating and a B CinemaScore. But those are merely “okay” numbers for a prestige pic like this. The sequel is not in any danger for a number of reasons, including the holiday season and the overseas numbers where it’s at $165.5 million for a $221 million worldwide total thus far.

Ultimately, Gladiator will need to perform very well considering the massive budget that stands at $250 million. But it should be in fine shape all in all, with a domestic total in the $160 million range or so and the overseas numbers pushing it to solid results.

Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans’ Red One took a slightly bigger than expected hit in the face of the so-called “Glicked” duo, as it fell 59% to $13.3 million in its second weekend. That drop is the same as Black Adam’s second weekend slip and higher than the falls of Jungle Cruise (55%), Jumanji: The Next Level (55%), and Skyscraper (54%). It puts the film up to $52.9 million domestically and $117.1 million worldwide against a budget of $200 million.

Red One will be subsidized to a degree by the Prime Video revenue when it debuts exclusively there, so Amazon MGM isn’t worrying too hard about this one; it reportedly only needs to make back the $100 million marketing spend to break even. Will it get there? We’ll see. Domestically it is looking likely to make it to around $100 million, and it will need to bring in a bit more from the international numbers to wipe out any potential red ink.

Coming in at #3 was Angel Studios’ latest film, Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin.. That awkwardly-titled faith-based biopic brought in $5.1 million, a very solid result for the film considering it was flying largely under the radar. The start is slightly below that of March’s Cabrini ($7.2 million) but better than July’s Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot ($3.1 million).

Unlike Angel Studios’ other two productions this year, Bonhoeffer came into the weekend with middling critical regard at a 59% RT aggregate. Like those films (and most faith-based entries) though, the audience reaction is strong with a 91% RT audience rating and an A CinemaScore. We do not have a budget for the Todd Komarnicki-directed movie, but it should be able to do just fine and will likely hit around $15 million domestically.

Venom: The Last Dance continues to post solid numbers, down 45% from last weekend with $4 million. The trilogy-closer is now at $133.8 million domestically and $456.4 million, making it profitable against a $120 million budget. It should land at $140 million in the US by the end of its run.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever had the best hold in the top 10, off just 33% in its third weekend with $3.5 million. Lionsgate’s holiday comedy has totaled $25.5 million stateside and $25.6 million worldwide against a $10 million budget, with a $35 million final domestic gross expected.

Heretic slipped 55% in its third weekend to bring in $2.2 million, drawing its tallies to $24.8 million domestically and $31.9 million worldwide. It’s profitable against a budget of less than $10 million and is charting for a $30 million domestic total.

The Wild Robot showed mortality at last as it fell 53% in its ninth weekend to $2 million. That puts the family film at $140.7 million domestically and $317.4 million worldwide, a very profitable against its $75 million budget. It’s will likely register around $147 million by the end of its domestic run.

Smile 2 dropped 62% to gross $1.1 million in its sixth weekend. The horror sequel has a stateside total of $67.8 million and $135.9 million worldwide against a budget of just $28 million and marketing. Its domestic total will land at about $70 million.

Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain was down 50% in its fourth weekend to $1.1 million (just $1,000 behind Smile 2). The road trip dramedy’s totals are at $5 million domestically and $5.6 million worldwide, and should end its run short of $10 million.

Next weekend will likely see a new #1 as Moana 2 opens over Thanksgiving weekend. The animated Disney sequel is looking at around $80 million over the three-day weekend.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Wicked – $114 million ($114 million total, $164.2 million WW)
2. Gladiator II – $55.5 million ($55.5 million total, $221 million WW)
3. Red One – $13.3 million ($52.9 million total, 117.1 million WW)
4. Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin – $5.1 million ($5.1 million total, $5.1 million WW)
5. Venom: The Last Dance – $4 million ($133.8 million total, $456.4 million WW)
6. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever – $3.5 million ($25.5 million total, $25.6 million WW)
7. Heretic – $2.2 million ($24.8 million total, $31.9 million WW)
8. The Wild Robot – $2 million ($140.7 million total, $317.4 million WW)
9. Smile 2 – $1.1 million ($67.8 million total, $135.9 million WW)
10. A Real Pain – $1.1 million ($5.0 million total, $5.6 million WW)