Latest On Paramount & Netflix Battling Over Warner Bros. Discovery, AEW’s Possible Future

It’s been a busy week in terms of Paramount and Netflix fighting over their attempts to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, with plenty of developments having taken place. As previously reported, Netflix and WBD announced a deal that would see Netflix acquire the other company for $82.7 billion, or $27.75 per share. That was complicated when Paramount announced a bid for a hostile takeover of WBD. Paramount’s made a $30 per share offer that to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders. That deal is worth $108.4 billion. However, that deal is also for the entire company, while Netflix’s bid does not include the cable TV networks. Under Netflix’s deal, WBD would continue with previously-announced plans to spin those off into a separate company.

There are a lot of complexities to this situation, and right now there’s no certainty which deal will ultimately prevail. Analysts have been heavily split as to the possibilities of what will happen. Paramount claims that WBD is overvaluing its TV networks in order to make the Netflix deal looks more attractive. WBD seems to be considering the TV networks group to be worth $2.25 a share, while Paramount argues that it’s about $1 per share.

Adding to the complexity is the fact that Netflix’s offer is mostly cash, with $69.3 billion in cash and $13.4 billion in Netflix stock. Netflix has also committed to a $5.8 billion “breakup fee” that they will pay whether the deal goes through or not. Paramount’s deal, as the WON reports, is an all-cash bid but includes partners from a number of outside sources including $24 billion from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar’s sovereign wealth funds. The deal also includes $54 billion of debt financing from Bank of America, Citi and Apollo Globe Management.

AEW’s Status Amid The Dealing

There’s a lot going on there, and the gist is that for now, as we previously noted, AEW is not affected. Their deal with WBD won’t be affected at the very least until Discovery Global is spun off in the back half of 2026. The wrestling company’s contract with WBD runs through 2027, with an option on WBD’s part to extend to 2028 if desired. When that happens, AEW’s contract would presumably be with both WBD and Discovery Global. WBD would handle streaming, while Discovery Global will hold the contract for the network broadcasts.

As has been noted, Discovery Global is developing a Turner Sports subscription platform for when the split happens. The WON reports that the current belief withi9n AEW is that they would stay on HBO Max and not go on the new service. Keep in mind, this is all still speculative and the reporting only reflects what sources believe right now.

In terms of PPVs, AEW’s PPVs are expected to bring in millions for HBO Max next year. HBO Max gets a cut of the revenue spent on AEW PPVs through the app. AEW would have much greater exposure on HBO Max than on a new service.

Netflix has said that “today,” nothing is changing regarding HBO Max and Netflix, which is obviously true as the companies have not merged yet. Despite reporting and insinuation otherwise, there has been zero indication of whether that will remain the case should the Netflix deal win out, nor when that may happen. WWE has a deal with Netflix for Raw domestically and all weekly shows plus PLEs internationally, so it’s hard to tell what would happen should Netflix and HBO Max merge. Netflix is not believed to have exclusivity in its contract with WWE, so conceivably both AEW and WWE could air on Netflix if a merger happens. But again, this is a matter of “it could” not “it will.”

Paramount and AEW Possibilities

Should Paramount win the war, they will own all of WBD including their TV stations. Paramount has intimated they they will merge HBO Max into Paramount+ and will keep the cable television stations. Should this happen, AEW would likely find its streaming home on Paramount+. While Paramount is carrying UFC programming starting in the new year, that is obviously not wrestling and as such there would be less potential conflict than if Netflix merged with HBO Max. As the WON notes, Paramount would be more likely to buy the PPV business outright, similar to what they did with the UFC.

Long story short (WAY too late), there’s still a lot up in the air. Paramount claims it would have an easier time with regulatory concerns, due in part to its relationship with the Trump administration. That is, for the record, not entirely clear to be the case. Trump has been positive towards Paramount in recent months, particularly since the company merged with Skydance and came under the ownership of the Ellisons. But he has also met with Netflix’s Ted Sarandos and has publicly made no statements explicitly supporting either side. He also got angry at Paramount this week over CBS airing a 60 Minutes interview with Marjorie Taylor Green.

Strap in folks. The wild ride is not over yet by a long shot.