411 Box Office Report: The Upside Claims Surprise #1, Aquaman Hits $1 Billion Worldwide

The Upside captured an upset at the box office, surpassing expectations to claim the #1 spot for the weekend. The Kevin Hart and Bryan Cranston dramedy brought in $19.6 million for the top spot, surging well ahead of the $10 million to $14 million that it was expected to do. That’s great news for STX Entertainment, which scored its second-best opening of all-time behind only Bad Moms’ $23.8 million launch in July of 2016.

The Upside headed into the weekend with only a moderate amount of heat. The film, a remake of the 2011 critically-acclaimed French film The Intouchables, wasn’t loved by critics (40% Rotten Tomatoes consensus) and audiences tend to pay more attention to critics when drama is involved. The film had a lower awareness profile than most of Kevin Hart’s films, and with Hart’s controversy over past homophobic tweets made his promotional profile a bit lower than he usually is. But audiences were looking for something new at the box office, and this film was the primary beneficiary. It also helps that those who saw it generally loved it with an A CinemaScore, which helped word of mouth.

With a strong first weekend, the film is now poised to become a more likely success than it otherwise would have. Hart’s comedies generally gross about triple their opening weekends at the box office, and it seems to be a good bet that this one will too. That would put it in the $60 million to $65 million range by the end of its run. On a $37.5 million budget it isn’t out of the woods yet, and STX will be hoping for longer legs and some international success too. But for now, studio executives are breathing a sigh of relief.

While Aquaman was denied a fourth weekend at #1, it has nothing to be upset about. The DC Extended Universe film had another solid hold, down 44% to $17.3 million. That brings the CGI-laden film to $287.9 million domestically…but more importantly, it has now crossed the $1 billion mark worldwide at $1.02 billion. That makes it only the fifth film in Warner Bros. history to cross that mark. It’s also the #6 domestic-grossing film of 2018, and the #5 film of the year worldwide.

Aquaman now ranks as the #2 DC Comics film of all-time in terms of worldwide gross (unadjusted, of course), with only The Dark Knight Rises’ $1.084 billion ahead of it. That number could easily be achievable considering that between domestic and international, the film nailed down $45.2 million this weekend and Japan still has yet to open. The film is a huge hit for the studio and should end its domestic run in the $325 million range or so. The budget was $160 million.

Sony’s canine adventure A Dog’s Way Home opened in okay (but not great) shape at #3 with $11.3 million. That’s a bit below the $13 million that was expected for the film, making it another movie having its family crowd siphoned away by Aquaman. The Ashley Judd-starring movie needed something to put it over the top going into the weekend, and mediocre reviews (59% on RT) didn’t help. Audiences liked it of course, with an A- CinemaScore, but opening weekend audiences generally love anything about dogs. The abysmal Show Dogs got an A- CinemaScore, after all.

The one thing Dog’s Way Home has going for it is that its daily holds were pretty solid. That means that this one is likely to finish around a 3.0 multiplier for $35 million or so. The problem is that this won’t be enough to make back the film’s $18 million production budget, plus its marketing costs. Dog-centered films are unpredictable overseas; some of them have bombed or not even opened, while others like A Dog’s Purpose became huge hits internationally. How this one performs in the coming weeks overseas will determine if it hits a profit margin for Sony.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse continued its good run at the box office, boosted by last weekend’s Golden Globe win. The film eased 31% to $9 million, bringing its totals to $147.8 million domestically and $302.4 million worldwide against a $90 million budget. The film is likely to continue its run, especially if it scores an expected Oscar nomination for Best Animated Film next week. As of now, its domestic take looks to be around $170 million, justifying Sony’s plans for a sequel and spin-off.

Escape Room saw a typical horror drop-off, down 51% in its second weekend to $8.9 million. This was fully expected, especially considering how well it overindexed last weekend. The ensemble horror-thriller is well on its way to profit with $32.4 million domestically thus far and $34.9 million worldwide in just fifteen markets. As of now, the movie is looking at a domestic final of around $45 million, with $50 million not out of reach. This will be a success for the studio and will probably enable the sequel that the studio clearly wants to become a reality. The budget was just $9 million.

Mary Poppins Returns dropped off a fair amount, down 55$ in its fourth weekend to $7.2 million. The sequel is up to $150.7 million domestically and $287.9 million worldwide against a $130 million budget. While Disney clearly wanted more from this film, it will count as a minor success by the time it leaves theaters with a $170 million domestic final.

Bumblebee was down 49% in its fourth, bringing in $6.8 million. The Transformers prequel continues the recent franchise trend of being a moderate success domestically but a strong hit overseas. Thus far the film has $108.5 million in the US and $364.8 million worldwide. Both numbers are the lowest for the franchise, but on lower production costs as well at $135 million. Domestically, the film’s run should end at around $125 million and if it holds on a little better than that, it would actually top Transformers: The Last Knight’s $130 million domestic final.

Jumping to #8 in its first weekend of wide release was On the Basis of Sex. The Felicity Jones-starring drama, which recounts Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s fight to end sex-based discrimination, chalked up $6.3 million from 1,923 theaters. That’s an okay number, if not necessarily a breakout hit. The film has been hurt by the fact that awards season has snubbed it, though critics generally liked it (while admitting its flaws) with a 71% RT score. This is one that will rely on its word of mouth, which is good at an A CinemaScore. Thus far it has grossed $10.6 million and Focus Features keeps pushing it, a $20 million to $25 million domestic total is possible. That, however, won’t be enough to make a profit considering the $20 million budget.

Clint Eastwood’s The Mule dropped 39% in its fifth weekend to $5.5 million. The drama has brought in a total of $90.6 million domestically and has begun its overseas run with $3.3 million in twenty-eight markets for a $93.9 million worldwide total. It is looking likely to finish domestically with about $100 million and may be able to eke out a slight profit on a $50 million budget.

Vice closed out the top ten with $3.3 million, down 43% in its third frame. The Dick Cheney biopic is now at $35.9 million, with a $45 million to $50 million domestic total possible. With a $60 million budget and iffy overseas prospects, the film probably will not be a money-maker.

Next weekend, it’s all about Glass. The M. Night Shyamalan-directed sequel to Unbreakable and Split is targeting around $50 million. Nothing else is opening new against it.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Upside – $19.6 million ($19.6 million total)
2. Aquaman – $17.3 million ($287.9 million total)
3. A Dog’s Way Home – $11.3 million ($11.3 million total)
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – $9 million ($147.9 million total)
5. Escape Room – $8.9 million ($32.4 million total)
6. Mary Poppins Returns – $7.2 million ($150.7 million total)
7. Bumblebee – $6.8 million ($108.5 million total)
8. On the Basis of Sex – $6.3 million ($10.6 million total)
9. The Mule – $5.5 million ($90.6 million total)
10. Vice – $3.3 million ($35.9 million total)