411 Box Office Report: Encanto Leads With $40.3 Million Five-Day Start

The Thanksgiving box office was relatively mild, with Encanto taking the win via a five-day $40.3 million opening. The Disney animated film opened to $27 million over the three-day weekend and $40.3 million since opening on Wednesday. That’s about where analysts predicted it to land, with the family fantasy film hit the estimates Disney was hoping for.

It’s impossible to talk about box office without discussing the pandemic of course, and pre-COVID Encanto would have likely been looking at a start in the $60 million to $70 million range. But that’s not the world we’re living in, and Disney knows that. Encanto came into the weekend with a decent amount of positive buzz, rocking a 92% aggregate critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. That buzz was echoed by audience reactions; the film has an A CinemaScore, which should help word of mouth.

One unexpected aspect that theaters and studios didn’t expect to have to deal with was news of a new COVID variant in Omicron, and that appears to have deflated the box office across the field. Encanto is down 35% in its Sunday projection from Saturday’s estimate, and there is some concern that the new variant may slow moviegoing revenue. Encanto will also be arriving on Disney+ in just a month on December 24th, so people may be willing to wait to see it then rather than go out to the theaters.

Either way, Disney’s not stressing this one. This film was spendy at a $120 million production budget plus marketing, but that is well below the budgets of Marvel films or even relatively recent animated Disney/Pixar efforts like Moana, Zootopia, and Soul. The fact that the film drew a strong portion of its box office from Latino moviegoers is also encouraging, because that historically suggests it will do well in Latin America markets overseas. Encanto is off to a solid start internationally and is sitting at $69.6 million worldwide. Domestically it seems likely to pass $110 million, and overseas should make up the rest of the costs plus some.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife had a very solid second weekend, especially considering its opening weekend overperformance. The Jason Reitman-directed franchise revival took in $24.5 million over three days and $35.3 million over five days. It was down 44% weekend to weekend, which is a pretty good hold for a film with a heavy fandom audience.

Afterlife is looking pretty for Sony at this point. It is currently standing at $87.8 million domestically and $115.8 million worldwide, both solid numbers against a $75 million budget. Assuming it continues to show good holds, it should be able to clear $145 million or higher in the US and is well on its path to profit.

Ridley Scott’s latest film opened moderately well, with House of Gucci taking in $14.2 million over the three-day period and $21.8 million over five days. That is the best opening for a pure drama since the pandemic began. The fact-based film lured the audiences in with star power – the ensemble cast features Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Al Pacino, Jeremy Irons, and Jared Leto – and some heavy awards buzz for the film (and particularly for Gaga’s performance).

That said, while the awards buzz was strong the critical buzz was mild at best. Critics were so-so on the film, with scores averaging out to a 61% on RT. Fortunately this is a crowd pleaser with a B+ CinemaScore, and that will be important for the legs this film needs to be a hit. Gucci was expensive at $75 million in production costs and while it should make enough for the studio to be happy (and for Scott to avoid having two bombs in a year – hello, The Last Duel), it will need that awards buzz to make it into a profit margin. It’s added $12.9 million overseas so far for a $34.7 million worldwide total.

Marvel’s Eternals had a good hold in its fourth weekend, down 29% to $7.9 million over Friday to Sunday and $11.4 million over the five-day weekend. The MCU ensemble film is doing just fine with $150.6 million domestically and $368.4 million worldwide. Even against a $200 million budget, this one should end up satisfying Marvel and Disney as it finishes out at around $175 million domestically.

Meanwhile, Sony is less happy about Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City. The reboot of the Resident Evil franchise opened to $5.3 million over the regular weekend and $8.8 million over five days. That’s below even the modest $10 million projections that were being seen heading into Thanksgiving, and puts the film well below the previous franchise low in Resident Evil: The Final Chapter’s $13.6 million start in 2017.

So what went wrong with Raccoon City? To start with, this film had just about zero buzz surrounding it. While Resident Evil has been a reliable cash cow for Sony, the franchise had been steadily going downhill in domestic box office numbers. This franchise was all about international grosses in its final entries, where the overseas numbers pushed them to ever-higher profits.

When the studio decided to continue without Paul W.S. Anderson they went to go back to the source material, but it just didn’t seem to interest fans. Sure, pandemic is a thing here and that needs to be taken into account, but it’s also the fact that the core audience just wasn’t interested. The trailer didn’t capture interest and while this franchise is critic-proof, a 24% RT average didn’t help. Audiences who did see it weren’t impressed with a C+ CinemaScore and that shows.

It’s important that international grosses for the film are off to an okay start at $5.1 million for a $13.9 million total. It is also important to note that this film has a way lower budget than your average action film at $25 million. So it may well make its way across the profit line after all. But domestically, don’t expect this one to get much higher than $18 million to 20 million.

Clifford the Big Red Dog came in at #6 this weekend with $4.9 million over three days (down 40%) and $6.9 million over five. The Paramount family film is now at $42.8 million domestically and $43.1 million worldwide, plus whatever revenue is being counted off its Paramount+ day and date release. The film is now looking at around $65 million or so in theaters from a $64 million production budget.

King Richard didn’t improve its fortunes in its second weekend, nailing down $3.9 million over three days (down 39%) and $4.8 million over five. The good news is that’s a much stronger hold than your typical HBO Max day-and-date release film. The bad news is that it didn’t have much room to fall anyway. The Will Smith-starring sports biopic is now at $11.4 million domestically and $16.6 million worldwide. It should be able make its way to $20 million before award season hits.

Dune was down 32% in its fifth weekend with $2.2 million over three days and $3 million over five, putting the sci-fi film at $102.2 million domestically and $374.2 million worldwide. The action drama is now looking at around $110 million domestically by the end of its run and will be profitable once all revenue streams are counted in, even on a $165 million budget plus marketing.

No Time to Die was off 37% in its eighth weekend with a $1.8 million three-day weekend and $2.5 million over five days. Daniel Craig’s last hurrah as 007 is now at $158.1 million domestically and $758.1 million worldwide. The film is a hit and should end its run at around $163 million domestically. The budget was $250 million.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage tacked on another $1.6 million over the three-day (down 46%) and $2.2 million over five. The superhero film is at $209.5 million in the states and $469.6 million worldwide, quite the hit against its $100 million budget. $215 million still looks to be the final domestic endgame here.

Next weekend will be largely empty for new releases, so Encanto should continue to lead the way.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Encanto – $27 million ($40.3 million total, $69.6 million WW)
2. Ghostbusters: Afterlife – $24.5 million ($87.8 million total, $115.8 million WW)
3. House of Gucci – $14.2 million ($21.8 million total, $34.7 million WW)
4. Eternals – $7.9 million ($150.6 million total, $368.4 million WW)
5. Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City – $5.3 million ($8.8 million total, $13.9 million WW)
6. Clifford the Big Red Dog – $4.9 million ($42.9 million total, $43.1 million WW)
7. King Richard – $3.3 million ($11.4 million total, $16.6 million WW)
8. Dune – $2.2 million ($102.2 million total, $374.2 million WW)
9. No Time to Die – $1.8 million ($158.2 million total, $758.1 million WW)
10. Venom: Let There Be Carnage – $1.6 million ($209.5 million total, $469.6 million WW)