411’s TV Renewal Predictions: Lethal Weapon’s Days Are Numbered

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2018 – 2019 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and we’re back for a third year or predicting which shows will live to see another season. The fall season began its return this past week, and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

We missed last week due to unforeseen complications, but that just means that there’s more news for this week! We’re now approximately three weeks into the season and a lot of shows’ futures are beginning to take shape. As a result, a lot of shows have moved out of “Too Early To Tell” status. That said, it is still early in the season and fortunes can change on a moment’s notice at this point. So expect many of these predictions to change until they even out toward the end of the fall.

* ABC

ABC is sitting in somewhat better shape than it had at this point last year. There are still some rough points on the schedule, but all in all it does look to be a better year. However, that strength is based on some veteran shows, and not necessarily their new ones. Grey’s Anatomy, Modern Family, and The Goldbergs are easily leading the way, and all of them are now likely renewed. These aren’t shows that ABC can rely on forever, obviously. Grey’s is in its fifteenth season, Modern Family is in its tenth and Goldbergs is in its sixth. But they’re definitely holding up the ship while the network rebuilds.

Less encouraging for ABC is its Friday night lineup. After last year’s genre-heavy offering, the network switched back to comedy with Fresh Off the Boat and Speechless. Both are usually reliable comedies that, if not hits, were at least consistently fine. However, they have run up against FOX’s giant in Last Man Standing. And in a little bit of karma that Tim Allen has to love, Standing is crushing the sitcoms on the network that previously cancelled him. Friday night gets extra leeway from networks because of the smaller audience that watches television on a Friday, but Boat and Speechless are at slightly less than half of ABC’s scripted average. There’s still room for them to turn around, but right now they’ve moved to the Bubble.

As for the network’s newer shows, there’s a pretty wide variance. It’s fair to say that The Conners is probably safe, though I’m waiting until next week to see how hard the drop is. The Roseanne spinoff brought in a 2.3 on Tuesday, the second-best comedy episode rating this season, but that’s well below where the Roseanne revival started last week. Add in the high likelihood that some people just tuned in to see how Roseanne died, and this one could fall heavily. Nathan Fillion’s new cop series The Rookie didn’t start off amazingly, but if it can hold on than a 1.0 could be a good enough premiere to survive at 10 PM. Sophomore dramas Station 19 and The Good Doctor are not blowing anyone away with their numbers, but they are still solid. And the same can be said for new show Single Parents. All of those shows are still too early to call. So is A Million Little Things, a freshman comedy. I separate that from the pack because Little Things is noticeably below the other three. It’s still not in too much trouble, but it’s still early in its first season and ratings often drop. This one could easily find itself in trouble if it drops.

* CBS

There is a lot going on at CBS, but most of it falls in the “disappointment” range. Let’s start off with the good, though. Young Sheldon, NCIS, and Mom are all pretty safe bets to come back for another season at this point. Sheldon is performing pretty well thus far, holding onto Big Bang Theory’s numbers well enough that it would take a major drop-off for it to get the axe. And NCIS and Mom remain mainstays for the network as it tries to find new series to replace their aging, phasing-out shows.

However, when you move away from those shows, CBS starts to look a lot drearier. Revival Murphy Brown and reboot Magnum, P.I. both jump to the Bubble this week, along with sophomore SWAT. Magnum started off better than Murphy Brown, but has quickly lost a fair bit of its audience. Meanwhile, the revived Brown started off low but is holding on well. Based on current trends, I’d say Brown has better odds, but it’s a long season and things could change.

SWAT and its fellow second-season drama SEAL Team have been in rough shape for the first few weeks, never even hitting a 0.9. But one positive here is that SWAT has been consistently gaining viewers (its premiere was a brutal 0.68), while SEAL Team is following suit. They aren’t in good shape, but they aren’t doomed either. Madame Secretary’s numbers are dire, but they always have been and I’m not ready to call it a likely cancellation yet.

In terms of the other newbies, The Neighborhood is in the best shape. The sitcom has lost about 30% of its premiere in subsequent weeks, but is still performing decently at sits right at CBS’ scripted ratings average. New procedural FBI is an interesting one, because on one hand it is performing solidly and has received a full season order — normally a very good sign. On the other, late last week it underwent its second showrunner change in less than three months. When creative talent is switching that quickly, it’s usually a sign of network dissatisfaction. But if FBI stays above water ratings-wise, CBS won’t stress the creative issues behind the scenes.

There’s not much to say about the rest of the lineup, which is neither looking excruciating nor stellar. Freshmen God Friended Me and Happy Together are doing “just okay,” right alongside the two NCIS spinoffs and the Friday night lineup. Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods are still synergized well with MacGyver and that show’s success (thanks to the syndication rule) may well help carry the others along, particularly if Magnum, P.I. falls apart.

* NBC

Things are mostly looking good for NBC as usual, though there are a couple very noticeable holes in their ratings armor. But we’ll get to those in a minute. First off, the obvious: This Is Us isn’t going anywhere soon, and it has some company. Manifest did take a couple of the traditional hefty week-to-week drops associated with its genre, but appears to have stabilized at the 1.5 range or so. That is way stronger than last year’s Monday night show, The Brave, stabilized at. Manifest should, barring catastrophe, avoid The Brave’s fate and live to see a second season.

And while it hasn’t yet stabilized, New Amsterdam appears likely to join it. The medical drama does have to find an even point, as it is starting to catch a worrying level of drop-off from This Is Us, but it’s still looking very good overall. The fact that it was picked up for a full season already (and doesn’t have FBI’s behind-the-scenes issues) definitely helps. NBC also has to be happy with the Chicago trio, which have nicely shored up their Wednesday night lineup.

On the downside, I Feel Bad becomes the network’s first likely cancellation this year. The comedy started out mediocre in the ratings and have only gotten worse from there. In four episodes, it has already lost half its audience. It will be lucky to make it another few weeks, and could be the first official cancellation of the season. Also likely to be cancelled is Blindspot. The show made it to season four thanks to international profits and the promise of syndication, but it started with a 0.5. Unless things seriously turn around, not even airing on Fridays will be a good enough excuse to save it.

* FOX

It’s nothing but feast or famine over at FOX, who have some of the biggest hits and the biggest problems this season. Let’s look at the issues first, starting with Lethal Weapon. The show is in its third season and, under most situations, would be a very likely renewal as it could pretty much get the sweet spot of episode count for syndication. However, it’s just getting hit with problem after problem. In addition to Clayne Crawford’s departure, Damon Wayans announced last week that he would leave after thirteen episodes. The network then ordered an additional two episodes and worked out a deal with Wayans to stay on through them. However, that just brings it more or less in line with The Gifted for episode count. If FOX wanted to renew the series, they would have given it a show of faith early on to boost hopes with a full season order. Add in the fact that the show just isn’t performing well, and it’s hard to see it coming back.

FOX’s other big problem on the schedule is Rel. The comedy got a great preview before the season began, earning a 1.9 rating after a Sunday Night football game, but has since plummeted during the regular season. Its most recent number was an unsustainable 0.5 and that was another major drop for the series. Barring a miraculous comeback — and soon — this one’s going to go. Meanwhile, The Gifted is also in very sketchy shape ratings-wise, but is more or less on par with Lethal Weapon without that show’s creative problems. It’s not safe, but neither is it doomed quite yet.

Fortunately for the network, it has some things to be happy about. Notably, Last Man Standing is in full-fledged hit range. The show did take the predictably heavy fall after its premiere (take note, The Conners), but even with that it is the network’s third-best show. And it airs on Fridays. It also seems likely to pull The Cool Kids across the finish line. That sitcom has also taken some hefty drops almost directly correlating to LMS, but a 1.0 (its most recent number) is good enough for most nights these days, not to mention Fridays.

And what about the Sunday night animated block? The Simpsons is still reliably delivering, and Bob’s Burgers and Family Guy aren’t in terrible shape. I’ve only moved Simpsons out of Too Early to Call right now, because the fall is always very dependent on football for FOX and those numbers will fluctuate until winter.

* The CW

The CW’s biggest news is that it expanded to Sundays this week…and pretty much nothing has changed numbers-wise. To be fair, they didn’t suddenly get more market penetration (The CW airs in fewer households than the Big Four), so that wasn’t expected. Things don’t look much different from last season, with The Flash and Riverdale leading the pack while Arrow, Supernatural, and Supergirl are holding up the upper-middle.

Perhaps the biggest concern among the returning DC shows is Black Lightning, which took a hefty fall from last season with a 0.4. That’s not a death knell on The CW, to be fair. In fact, it puts the show right near the scripted average. But it is something to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, Fridays look truly painful, with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’s last season starting off incredibly low and Dynasty’s season premiere at a 1.6. Frighteningly, that’s actually UP from last season’s 1.0 finale. In most situations, I would say Dynasty is doomed, but it got renewed last season with a 0.19 average thanks to overseas deals, so you never know.

We have two new shows so far, and they’re on opposite sides of the ratings rankings. Charmed got off to a very good start with a 0.54, making it the second-highest show on the network right now. Of course, it’s a reboot of a genre series and was very heavily promoted, so it could fall significantly. I’m not yet moving it out of Too Early to Call, but it’s looking good. All-American, on the other hand, can be called right now. It started off with a 0.19 rating, and that’s not going to save any series for any reason. A show about high school football won’t have much international draw, so that lifeline is not available. Stick a fork in that one, folks.

ABC

Prediction Record:

0-0

Renewed:
None

Likely Renewal:
* Grey’s Anatomy (1.73)
* Modern Family (1.48)
* The Goldbergs (1.34)
* American Housewife (1.13)

Bubble:
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.78)
* Fresh Off the Boat (0.53)
* Speechless (0.50)

Likely Cancellation:
None

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
* The Conners (2.40)
* The Kids Are Alright (1.40)
* Station 19 (1.20)
* The Good Doctor (1.17)
* Single Parents (1.14)
* Black-ish (1.00)
* The Rookie (1.00)
* A Million Little Things (0.93)
* Splitting Up Together (0.90)
* For the People (Premieres Midseason)
* Whiskey Cavalier (Premieres Midseason)

CBS

Prediction Record:

0-0

Renewed:
None

Likely Renewal:
* Young Sheldon (1.75)
* NCIS (1.36)
* Mom (1.32)
* Bull (0.81)
* MacGyver (0.73)

Bubble:
* Murphy Brown (1.00)
* Magnum P.I. (0.97)
* Seal Team (0.83)
* Criminal Minds (0.77)
* SWAT (0.74)
* Madam Secretary (0.60)

Likely Cancellation:
None

Cancelled:
* Big Bang Theory (2.31) – Final Season Already Announced

Too Early to Call:
* The Neighborhood (1.18)
* FBI (1.13)
* God Friended Me (1.10)
* NCIS: New Orleans (0.95)
* Happy Together (0.94)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.93)
* Blue Bloods (0.82)
* Hawaii Five-0 (0.82)
* Instinct (Premieres Midseason)
* Life in Pieces (Premieres Midseason)
* Man With a Plan (Premieres Midseason)

NBC

Prediction Record:

0-0

Renewed:
* Will & Grace (0.91) – Renewed Before the Season Began

Likely Renewal:
* This Is Us (2.47)
* Manifest (1.75)
* New Amsterdam (1.50)
* The Good Place (0.94)

Bubble:
None

Likely Cancellation:
* I Feel Bad (0.76)
* Blindspot (0.50)

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
* Chicago Fire (1.30)
* Chicago Med (1.28)
* Chicago PD (1.18)
* Law & Order: SVU (1.01)
* Superstore (0.85)
* Midnight, Texas (Premieres October 26th)
* Good Girls (Premieres Midseason)
* AP Bio (Premieres Midseason)
* The Blacklist (Premieres Midseason)

FOX

Prediction Record:

0-0

Renewed:
None

Likely Renewal:
* 9-1-1 (1.69)
* Empire (1.69)
* Last Man Standing (1.52)
* The Simpsons (1.38)
* Star (1.31)
* The Cool Kids (1.20)

Bubble:
* The Gifted (0.72)

Likely Cancellation:
* Rel (0.97)
* Lethal Weapon (0.75)

Cancelled:
* Gotham (Premieres Midseason) – Final Season Previously Announced

Too Early to Call:
* Bob’s Burgers (1.10)
* Family Guy (1.07)
* The Resident (1.02)
* The Orville (Premieres September 30th)

The CW

Prediction Record:

0-0

Renewed:
None

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.74)
* Riverdale (0.53)
* Supernatural (0.47)
* Supergirl (0.45)

Bubble:
None

Likely Cancellation:
* All-American (0.19)

Cancelled:
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.13) – Final Season Previously Announced
* iZombie (Premieres Midseason) – Final Season Previously Announced
* Jane the Virgin (Premieres Midseason) – Final Season Previously Announced

Too Early to Call:
* Charmed (0.54)
* Arrow (0.40)
* Black Lightning (0.35)
* Dynasty (0.16)
* Legends of Tomorrow (Premieres October 22nd)
* Legacies (Premieres October 25th)
* The 100 (Premieres Midseason)