411 Box Office Report: Fantastic Beasts 3 Takes #1 With Soft $43 Million Start

The Harry Potter franchise had its slowest box office start with Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, though it still opened at #1 without a sweat this weekend. The third film in the Fantastic Beasts franchise opened to $43 million, coming in below the expected $45 million to $50 million that it was predicted to bring in. This marks the lowest start for a Potter-related film to date, below the $62.2 million start of Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald from November of 2018.

There’s going to be a lot of talk about why this film opened low. Was it in regard to the controversies around Johnny Depp’s removal or backlash against JK Rowling? Was it pandemic-related as cases start to rise again? The truth of the matter is simpler: this series has been on a downward trend for a while. The first Fantastic Beasts opened to $74.4 million in November of 2016 and has been setting new lows with each entry.

People have just not been as interested in the Wizarding World if the Boy Who Lived isn’t involved, and the diminishing returns in quality have clearly been a factor. Secrets of Dumbledore was a better-received film than the largely-disliked Crimes of Grindelwald, notching a 48% aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes compared to its predecessor’s 36%. That’s still not a great score by any stretch, though those who did see it liked it more (85% audience score and a B+ Cinemascore vs. Crimes of Grindelwald’s 54% & B+).

Unfortunately for this film, the word of mouth hasn’t translated well throughout the weekend. Secrets of Dumbledore was incredibly front-loaded with a $20 million Friday followed by a hefty drop on Saturday (down 31%) and a projected heavy drop on Sunday as well (off 35%). That’s not good news for the film’s legs. Overseas numbers have been more encouraging; the film has grossed $150.4 million overseas in two weekends for $193.4 million worldwide. Still, a $200 million budget makes this a very concerning start. Secrets of Dumbledore may top $110 million in the US, but it will likely struggle to hit profit against a $200 million budget and an expensive marketing campaign. Warner Bros. may be rethinking whether it will finish out the planned five-film series at this point.

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 came in at #2 for the weekend, down an expected 58% from last weekend’s impressive take with $30 million. The Paramount Pictures sequel is delivering impressively so far despite the front-loaded nature of video game adaptations and sits at $119.6 million domestically and $231.8 million worldwide against a budget of $90 million. There’s no reason to expect that this film won’t become a serious hit at this point, with a domestic total of $170 million or so looking likely.

The Lost City continued to hold on nicely, down just 28% in its fourth weekend with $6.5 million. The romcom-adventure is up to $78.6 million domestically and $88.3 million worldwide, with more international markets still to come. At this point the film still looks likely to top $90 million stateside and should be profitable for Paramount against its $68 million budget.

The success story of the weekend is at A24, where Everything Everywhere All at Once expanded its theater count to 2,220 and rose 2% from last weekend to $6.2 million. The Michelle Yeoh-led multiversal film is riding a wave of critical and audience love, bringing its totals to $17.7 million domestically and $18.1 million worldwide. It looks likely to continue along its way to over $25 million in the US, which would make it A24’s fourth highest-grossing film in the US ever. Its overseas rollout will matter as this cost a reported $25 million, but the studio should be very happy here overall.

Mark Wahlberg’s foray into faith-based dramas was a quiet one, with Father Stu taking in just $5.7 million in its three-day weekend. The film, which is based on the true story of boxer-turned-priest Stuart Long, opened on Wednesday and has a $8 million take over five days.

Faith-focused films comprise a genre that Hollywood remains inconsistent with in terms of box office. Sony Pictures opened this one this weekend in the hopes of bringing in the Easter crowd, but it doesn’t look to have paid off. We can blame the lackluster critical buzz (42% on RT), but critic scores matter less for this genre’s targeted audience. Those who did see it loved it (as usual for the genre) at an A CinemaScore and a 95% RT audience score. The audience is there, but it can have its limits. Father Stu seems likely to finish out around $20 million; no word on its budget, but Sony was probably hoping for me.

Speaking of Sony hoping for more, Morbius continues its drop down the charts as it brought in $4.7 million in its third weekend. That’s a fall of 54%, better than last weekend’s brutal 74% drop, but still not great. However, the film is still charting its way toward profit as it stands at $65.1 million domestically and $146.4 million worldwide against a $75 million budget. This one won’t be anything to write home about in terms of superhero box office grosses, but it should finish at around $75 million in the US.

Michael Bay’s Ambulance followed up its low start with a mild second weekend, down 54% to $4 million. That puts the action film at $15.6 million thus far, not the numbers that Universal were hoping to see at this point. The film is doing better overseas with a total of $40.5 million worldwide, but with a $40 million budget and an expensive marketing campaign, it has a long way to go in order to see profit. Right now it looks to be landing at around $25 million in the US, meaning that those overseas numbers will have to continue rising for it to hit profit. A China release is coming this coming week, and that should help.

The Batman was down 41% in its seventh weekend to $3.8 million. The DC superhero film is now up to $365 million domestically and $751.1 million worldwide, obviously great numbers. The film hits HBO Max tomorrow and that may accelerate its drops slightly, but it is still progressing its way toward $380 million or more in the US and is a smash against its $200 million production budget.

Indian action sequel K.G.F: Chapter 2 came in at #9 in its opening weekend with $2.9 million. The follow-up to 2018’s Chapter 1 is well above the performance of that film as Indian cinema continues to make its mark at the US box office. As with most films from the country, the US gross is just icing on the cake as its home county grosses will matter more. It will likely be out of the top 10 next weekend.

Uncharted closed out the top 10 with $1.2 million, down 56% in its nineth frame. The Sony video game adaptation is now up to $145 million domestically and $389.2 million worldwide, a very solid hit for the studio against its $120 million budget. It is still aiming for as much as $150 million domestically by the end of its run.

Next weekend should see a second win for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore barring a truly catastrophic drop, as the new releases are highly anticipated but have smaller targeted audiences. Universal and Dreamworks’ animated film The Bad Guys should open in the $15 million range, while Robert Eggers’ Viking action film The Northman and the Nic Cage-starring Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent are both looking at high single digit starts.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore – $43 million ($43 million total, $193.4 million WW)
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – $30 million ($119.6 million total, $231.8 million WW)
3. The Lost City – $6.5 million ($78.6 million total, $88.3 million WW)
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once – $6.2 million ($17.7 million total, $18.1 million WW)
5. Father Stu – $5.7 million ($8 million total, $8 million WW)
6. Morbius – $4.7 million ($65.1 million total, $146.4 million WW)
7. Ambulance – $4 million ($24.8 million total, $40.5 million WW)
8. The Batman – $3.8 million ($365 million total, $751.1 million WW)
9. K.G.F: Chapter 2 – $2.9 million ($2.9 million total, $2.9 million WW)
10. Uncharted – $1.7 million ($145 million total, $389.2 million WW)