411 Box Office Report: Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Holds At #1, Napoleon Does Well

It was a second weekend at #1 for Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, which outpaced Napoleon and Wish for the top spot. The Lionsgate prequel to the blockbuster franchise grossed $28.8 million for the three-day weekend, down 35%, with a five-day holiday weekend total of $42 million. That’s a better hold than expected and brings the film to $98.4 million domestically and $197.3 million worldwide.

Those numbers are very promising for the film; it is performing well below the original four films but as noted last week that was always expected. Thanksgiving is always a good weekend for box office holds, and this was no different. As it currently stands, Songbirds & Snakes is looking for an easy profit margin against its $100 million production budget. The domestic total is looking to be around $150 million or so, which will make future films in the franchise likely.

Ridley Scott’s Napoleon overperformed its expectations, grossing $20.4 million domestically over the three-day weekend and $32.5 million. The historical biopic was expected to do in the mid $20 million range for the five-day. That’s a solid piece of business for the film, which is currently outpacing Killers Of the Flower Moon which had $28.2 million through five days.

That comparison is relevant because in terms of financials, Napoleon and Killers Of the Flower Moon are in the same boat. Both were costly films in the $200 million range, and both have always had a long road to any potential profit. Both are also produced through Apple TV+, which can afford to take losses on prestige films like these.

Napoleon came in with a lot of hype, though the critical word hasn’t quite held up. The film has scored a 62% aggregated score on Rotten Tomatoes which is not great for a prestige film, and the 59% audience RT rating isn’t good at all. The B- CinemaScore isn’t encouraging either.

All that said, Napoleon isn’t in bad shape. How is that the case? The overseas numbers. The play for this film was always international and it started off with $46.3 million overseas for a $78.8 million worldwide start. That’s an encouraging international start and while this won’t be profitable in theaters, it could easily break even once it hits home viewing. The domestic total is looking at a likely $90 million to $100 million.

Disney had another stumble as Wish came up short. The animated film grossed $19.5 million through three days and $31.7 million since opening Wednesday. Those numbers are well below the expected high $40 million five-day opening. It’s the second straight Thanksgiving fumble for Walt Disney Animation following last year’s Strange World, which took in just $12.2 million in its three-day start.

Wish is just in bad shape here. Disney’s animation department has fallen on hard times post-pandemic, and Wish had a lot of factors working against it beyond that. To start with, it had very little positive buzz coming into the weekend with a mere 50% aggregate score on RT, the worst for the studio since Chicken Little all the way back in 2005. Wish is also coming at a bad time as it’s up against Trolls Band Together which is performing well and has much higher regard as a whole.

It doesn’t help the film’s prospects that it was an expensive film, costing the studio $200 million in production costs before marketing. The film is doing okay if not great among audiences with an 81% RT audience score and an A- CinemaScore. Those both seem great if you aren’t aware that going below an A is not the norm for family films, nor is going below 90% on RT’s audience score.

Wish is also not doing great business overseas, though it is essential to note that its international rollout is being staggered and there’s plenty of time for that to catch up. Right now it has $17.3 million overseas for a $49.5 million worldwide start. This is going to lose money for the studio and will perhaps gross $80 million domestically unless the week-to-week holds are much better than expected.

Speaking of Trolls Band Together, it was down 42% in its second weekend to $17.5 million and $25.3 million through three days. The animated threequel is now up to $64.5 million domestically and $145.8 million worldwide, decent against a $95 million budget. As the film stands it should still be able to make it to about $100 million or so in the US, which will be enough for a bit of profit.

Eli Roth’s Thanksgiving took advantage of the holiday weekend for a good hold, down 31% in its second weekend to $7.2 million over three days and $11.1 million through five. The slasher film is a hit for Sony with $24.2 million domestically and $29.1 million worldwide thus far against a $15 million budget. The numbers should drop off next weekend post-Thanksgiving but this one is going to be in good shape with a likely $40 million domestic gross, heralding the potential start of a new slasher franchise.

The Marvels stabilized in its third weekend, albeit too little, too late. The MCU film was down 37% to $6.4 million on the three-day and $8.8 million through Wednesday. That puts the movie at $76.9 million in the US and $187.1 million worldwide. International numbers are trying hard, but they can’t lift this $220 million production to profit. It should be able to end its run at about $100 million domestically

Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers continued to expand a bit and brought in $2.7 million over three days, up 2% from last weekend’s number. The five-day numbers were $3.8 million for the holiday-set dramedy. Holdovers has raked in $12.8 million domestically and has not opened worldwide yet. It should still be able to hit around $20 million and will likely need to find its profit on home viewing.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was down 16% in its seventh weekend to $2.3 million. The concert film has now grossed $178.3 million domestically and $249 million worldwide against a budget of just $10 million to $20 million. The film will close out around $182 million.

Five Nights At Freddy’s continued to fade, down 51% in its fifth weekend with $1.8 million. That puts the video game adaptation at a very healthy $136.2 million domestically and $295.4 million worldwide against a $20 million budget. It should finish out with around $143 million in the US, making it a big hit.

Amazon Studios’ Saltburn got off to an okay start, bringing in $1.7 million. That’s not bad for a film currently flying under the radar but expected to get a boost during award season. The Emerald Fennell-directed psychological thriller is doing solid critical business at a 70% RT average, and has a divisive audience reaction at a B- CinemaScore and a 78% RT audience rating.

It’s hard to say where a film like Saltburn goes from here. It’s still in a somewhat limited release, but it also doesn’t have the foundation for mainstream success. There’s no word on the budget but awards attention could help it. As it stands, it has $3.1 million domestically and $6.2 million worldwide, and is looking likely for around $10 million or so in the US.

Next weekend will see the concert film given another data point of success as Beyonce’s Renaissance is opening with an expected $25 million start. Also opening is Toho’s Godzilla Minus One and the holiday action flick Silent Night, both hoping for a high single digit start, and the faith-based sci-fi thriller The Shift which is aiming for the low-to-mid single digits.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes – $28.2 million ($98.4 million total, $197.3 million WW)
2. Napoleon – $20.4 million ($32.5 million total, $78.8 million WW)
3. Wish – $19.5 million ($31.7 million total, $49 million WW)
4. Trolls Band Together – $17.5 million ($64.5 million total, $145.8 million WW)
5. Thanksgiving – $7.2 million ($24.2 million total, $29.1 million WW)
6. The Marvels – $6.4 million ($76.9 million total, $187.1 million WW)
7. The Holdovers – $2.7 million ($12.8 million total, $12.8 million WW)
8. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour – $2.3 million ($178.3 million total, $249 million WW)
9. Five Nights At Freddy’s – $1.8 million ($136.2 million total, $295.4 million WW)
10. Saltburn – $1.7 million ($3.1 million total, $6.2 million WW)