411’s Box Office Report: Avengers: Infinity War Smashes Domestic and Worldwide Opening Records

It was a historic weekend at the box office, as Avengers: Infinity War set new records for both domestic and worldwide opening weekends. The latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe brought in $250 million on the domestic front and a stunning $630 million worldwide to easily claim the top spots in both metrics. The film’s opening (based on current Sunday estimates) beat out the $248 million first weekend of Star Wars: The Force Awakens and shattered the previous worldwide record of $541.9 million set by The Fate of the Furious in April of last year.

There’s a lot going on here, so let’s get into it. Looking first at the domestic numbers, Infinity War translated its $106 million first day start into a very good 2.35 multiple for the weekend thanks to a great 22% slip on Saturday and then 27% on Sunday. If you take out the $39 million that are rolled into Friday as part of Thursday previews, Infinity War actually had a 20% bounce from Friday to Saturday that indicates a strong family presence. That’s not too incredibly surprising, mind. Infinity War had one of the highest awareness and first-choice scores of all-time in pre-release research, ahead of The Force Awakens, Black Panther, Star Wars: Last Jedi and Jurassic World.

Everyone knew this was going to be huge, but even then it overperformed. Expectations going into the weekend were in the $225 million to $235 million, but with only an outside chance of topping The Force Awakens. The critical reviews are good for Infinity War but not off the charts, sitting at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s the audience reaction and corresponding word of mouth that is making a difference. The film has an A CinemaScore, matching the scores for the other two Avengers films and Captain America: Civil War. That provided the boost the film needed to get over the top.

As for the worldwide numbers…well, they’re pretty shocking. Avengers was always going to be big, but few expected to surpass Fate of the Furious much less blow past it. A big reason for the doubt comes in the fact that Infinity War did not open in two large markets yet: Russia and, more importantly, China. Furious had a higher international take at $444.2 million, but the much lower domestic opening ($98.8 million) meant it lost out on the whole.

With numbers this big, it’s always tough to predict where the film will finish. The average MCU multiple is 2.74, but with the exception of Black Panther and the original Avengers the really big openers have had somewhat weaker legs than the average. Panther was an outlier phenomenon and Avengers was the first of its kind. It seems more likely that Infinity War will hue closer to somewhere between Age of Ultron’s 2.4 and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’s 2.66. That would give it a $600 million to $660 million final domestic gross, which is a conservative but safe bet. If the drop next weekend is lower than usual (i.e. in the 50% range), it could go higher. Needless to say, its a huge hit.

A Quiet Place weathered the storm fairly well, dropping 49% in its fourth weekend to $10.7 million. The John Krasinski-directed horror thriller is now up to $148.2 million domestically and $235.4 million worldwide, great numbers on a $17 million budget. It will be a huge money maker, with a probably $175 million domestic final take.

Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty held onto the #3 spot, down 49% to $8.1 million. The romantic comedy was moderate but serviceable as a counter-programming option to Infinity Wars. As of this point, Pretty sits at $29.6 million domestically with its international rollout not really begun. It should be able to make it to $45 million to $50 million in the US, with international money pushing it to a minor profit on its $32 million budget.

Rampage was wiped out by Infinity War, dropping 65% in its third weekend to $7.1 million. This was entirely expected, as audiences flocked to the latest blockbuster rather than revisit this one. The Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson-starring video game adaptation is up to $77.9 million domestically and $334.6 million worldwide. The budget for this one was high at $120 million, and Warner Bros. spent heavily on the marketing, but it’s done well enough that this should be profitable for the studio. It should make it to $95 million domestically.

Black Panther saw its box office boosted by the release of its fellow MCU film, slipping just 11% in its eleventh weekend with $4.4 million. The superhero film is now up to $688 million domestically and $1.331 billion worldwide and should end up with $695 million domestically. The budget was $200 million.

Super Troopers 2 proved to be incredibly front-loaded, dropping a rough 76% to $3.6 million in its second weekend. The sequel to the 2002 comedy brought its total to $22.1 million domestically, with no international releases yet. The film should make it to $35 million and will be a profit. New estimates on its budget have it at $13.5 million, with little spent on marketing.

Truth or Dare was down another 59% to $3.2 million in its third weekend. The Blumhouse horror film has brought its totals to $35.3 million domestically and $47.8 million worldwide. It should end its run at around $45 million domestically, enough for a decent profit on a budget of just $3.5 million.

Blockers tallied up $2.9 million in its fourth weekend, down 57%. The R-rated ensemble comedy is up to $53.2 million domestically and $75.3 million worldwide. It should be able to make it to $65 million domestically and will be a profit on a $21 million production budget.

Ready Player One sunk hard in its fifth weekend, off 67% with $2.4 million. The blockbuster adaptation of the sci-fi novel now stands at $130.7 million domestically and $545.2 million worldwide. The film’s expensive $175 million budget eats into its budget, but it should be profitable still. It should finish out at $140 million in the US.

Traffik closed out the top ten with $1.6 million, down 59% in its second weekend. That’s not the drop that Lionsgate wanted, though the film is looking like it will meet expectations and finds profit in the ancillary market. It stands at $6.8 million thus far and should make it to around $10 million domestically from a $4 million budget.

Infinity War has a pretty empty field next weekend, as it will dominate for #1 again. Electric Entertainment’s horror thriller Bad Samaritan should open in the mid-single digits range, while comedy remake Overboard is targeting $10 million. Jason Reitman’s comedy Tully starring Charlize Theron is aiming for the same range as Bad Samaritan.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Avengers: Infinity War – $250 million ($250 million total)
2. A Quiet Place – $10.6 million ($148.2 million total)
3. I Feel Pretty – $8.1 million ($29.6 million total)
4. Rampage – $7.1 million ($77.9 million total)
5. Black Panther – $4.4 million ($688 million total)
6. Super Troopers 2 – $3.6 million ($22.1 million total)
7. Truth or Dare – $3.2 million ($35.3 million total)
8. Blockers – $2.9 million ($53.2 million total)
9. Ready Player One – $2.4 million ($130.7 million total)
10. Traffik – $1.6 million ($6.8 million total)