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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC on Fox: Jacare vs. Brunson
WELCOME:
UFC middleweight contenders headline on Fox as Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza looks to get back in the win column against Derek Brunson. In the co-main event, Dennis Bermudez battles Andre Fili. At lightweight, Gregor Gillespie looks to extend his undefeated record against Jordan Rinaldi. Plus, Drew Dober takes on Frank Camacho, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Featherweight Bout: Austin Arnett vs. Cory Sandhagen
Welterweight Bout: Niko Price vs. George Sullivan
Fox Sports 1
Lightweight Bout: Vinc Pichel vs. Joaquim Silva
Flyweight Bout: Justine Kish vs. Ji Yeon Kim
Strawweight Bout: Randa Markos vs. Juliana Lima
Flyweight Bout: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Mara Romero Borella
Featherweight Bout: Mirsad Bektic vs. Godofredo Pepey
Lightweight Bout: Bobby Green vs. Erik Koch
THE MAIN CARD:
Welterweight Bout: Drew Dober vs. Frank Camacho
Jeffrey Harris: This fight’s placement on the card as the opener for the main card on FOX is somewhat questionable. I guess it’s because both guys are coming off wins that they got it. However, you could’ve put a number of better fights on the main card instead, including Erik Koch vs. Bobby Green, Randa Markos vs. Juliana Lima, and Mirsad Bektic vs. Godofredo Pepey. All of them would’ve been better choices for the opener or for the main card then a lot of match-ups for this lineup. Oh well. Camacho is only 1-1 in the UFC, and I’d say his placement on this card is questionable and undeserved. I’m picking Drew Dober here getting a win with his superior knockout power and experience.
Winner: Drew Dober, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: This isn’t a terribly good card, and this being the opener should be an indicator of that. I imagine the thought process here is that these two are strikers and we should get an entertaining fight. Dober is the more technical party but has been gun shy, while Camacho is more of a brawler but has no fear pushing the pace or getting into the action. It’s a bit of a coin toss, but I’ll go with the more technical fighter.
Winner: Drew Dober, Decision
Dan Plunkett: I’ll go along with Robert and say this fight really isn’t any better than your average Friday night Bellator show, which is to say this is a horrendous card for Fox and the worst MMA card that has ever aired on one of the big four networks. This is a low stakes opening bout that UFC hopes will turn into a brawl. Camacho has good grappling credentials, but prefers to strike in the cage. Dober is the more talented fighter on paper, but he’s moving up to welterweight and his opponent has the physical advantage. For that reason, I’m leaning toward Camacho taking in a close decision.
Winner: Camacho, Decision
The staff picks Drew Dober, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Jordan Rinaldi vs. Gregor Gillespie
Jeffrey Harris: This is a bit of a weird choice for the main card, other than maybe UFC thinks the undefeated Gregor Gillespie is some amazing prospect and wants to showcase him here. He’s facing Jordan Rinaldi, who is coming off a submission win via a Von Flue Choke over Alvaro Herrera last August. Gillespie has a Division I NCAA wrestling background, so I think that gives him a considerable edge here. I expect him to walk away with a win.
Winner: Gregor Gillespie, Decision
Robert Winfree: I’m passingly familiar with Gillespie, a great collegiate wrestler who’s undefeated and looks to be a prospect of note in the division, as opposed to Rinaldo who’s 1-1 and his only UFC win was a flukey Von Flue choke against another contestant on TUF: Latin America. Feels like a showcase for Gillespie all things considered.
Winner: Gregor Gillespie, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Gregor Gillespie is one of the biggest favorites on the card, and for good reason. In three bouts with the UFC, he’s shown good wrestling and fight-ending power. Not to mention, between him and Rinaldi, Gillespie is certainly the better fisherman.
Winner: Gillespie, Decision
The staff picks Gregor Gillespie, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Dennis Bermudez vs. Andre Fili
Jeffrey Harris: Andre Fili has been a perennial win one and then lose one fighter in his entire UFC career. Considering he’s coming off a win over a mediocre fighter such as Artem Lobov, I see Andre Fili losing this fight. Dennis Bermudez has lost his last two fights, but I still consider him a very tough opponent at featherweight and an underrated fighter. Bermudez will dominate this fight with his wrestling game and get a dominant decision win.
Winner: Dennis Bermudez, Decision
Robert Winfree: Andre Fili hasn’t won back to back fights in his entire UFC run, and he won his last one so this seems academic. Bermudez has been more consistent and while’s lost his last two they were against a higher level of opposition than Fili presents.
Winner: Dennis Bermudez, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Bermudez only loses to really tough fighters. In his past six fights, he’s fallen to Darren Elkins, The Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Ricardo Lamas, but those are his only losses in the past six years. Fili is dangerous, but Bermudez is more well rounded, more experienced, and has beaten better competition.
Winner: Bermudez, Decision
The staff picks Dennis Bermudez, 3-0.
Middleweight Bout: Ronaldo Souza vs. Derek Brunson
Jeffrey Harris: Derek Brunson is not the same fighter when he came into the UFC. He’s massively improved. Even after going on a two-fight skid against Robert Whittaker and Anderson Silva, he bounced back. He scored back-to-back knockout wins over Dan Kelly and Lyoto Machida. Now he gets a chance to get back into the title mix against Ronaldo Souza. Souza’s title hopes were dashed after he was annihilated by Robert Whittaker in April 2017. That was the first time Souza was finished in his UFC career. Is Souza getting older and getting up there in age? Yes. Derek Brunson also has some heavy hands and knockout power. He’s put out some tough veterans to sleep, but I’m still going for Jacare here. Souza still has some of the most dangerous grappling and submissions in the game. Even with Brunson’s wrestling game, I see Souza getting him to the mat and submitting him early in the fight or by the second round. Jacare wins.
Winner: Ronaldo Souza, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: This is kind of a tough one. Brunson is on a winning streak and his only real loss over the last few years was to Robert Whittaker (I have no idea why Clucky thought Silva won that fight), but he’s still a deeply flawed fighter getting by more on his power than anything else. Souza is a grappling master but his striking arsenal never developed beyond a right hand, he’s also closing in on 40 in a division that doesn’t reward experience the way the two weight classes above this one do. I think Souza is able to get this one to the mat and take out Brunson, but I’m not going to be surprised in the least if Brunson takes him out with a power left.
Winner: Ronaldo Souza, Submission, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Jacare’s age is a concern to me in this fight. Last year, Robert Whittaker routed Souza and finished him in the second round, making the Brazilian look like his time had passed. Jacare is 38-years-old and if he doesn’t show something against Brunson, it probably means his days near the top of the division are over. At his best, Jacare presents tremendous danger to anyone in the division. He is a competent striker with has power in his punches. On the ground, his reputation speaks for itself.
Derek Brunson first ran into Jacare in 2012, when Jacare was already one of the world’s top middleweights, but Brunson had yet to establish himself. Jacare ran through him that time, but Brunson has come into his own in the time since. He’s won six of his past eight fights in first-round stoppages.
Certainly, the momentum is with Brunson here and Jacare is the one that needs to prove himself following such a stunning defeat. In that sense, it’s similar to last week’s Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir fight, only Jacare is no Cormier, and Brunson is more of a known quantity than Oezdemir. This time around, I favor the knockout artist.
Winner: Brunson, KO, Round 1
The staff picks Ronaldo Souza, 2-1.
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