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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2
WELCOME:
Cody Garbrandt looks for revenge as challenges T.J. Dillashaw for the UFC bantamweight title in the main event of UFC 227! In the co-main event, flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson looks to extend his record-breaking title reign in a rematch against Henry Cejudo. At middleweight, Thiago Santos faces Kevin Holland. Plus, Polyvana Viana battles JJ Aldrich, Cub Swanson vs. Renato Moicano, and more!
THE STAFF:
https://youtu.be/ykA5WMgy-aU
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Bantamweight Bout: Marlon Vera vs. Wuliji Buren
Jeffrey Harris: Marlon Vera, Decision
Robert Winfree: Marlon Vera, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Vera, Decision
The staff picks Marlon Vera, 3-0.
Strawweight Bout: Danielle Taylor vs. Zhang Weili
Jeffrey Harris: Danielle Taylor, Decision
Robert Winfree: Zhang Weili, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Taylor, Decision
The staff picks Danielle Taylor, 2-1.
Flyweight Bout: Jose Torres vs. Alex Perez
Jeffrey Harris: Jose Torres, Decision
Robert Winfree: Jose Torres, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Torres, Decision
The staff picks Jose Torres, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Matt Sayles vs. Sheymon Moraes
Jeffrey Harris: Sheymon Moraes, Decision
Robert Winfree: Sheymon Moraes, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Moraes, Decision
The staff picks Sheymon Moraes, 3-0.
Bantamweight Bout: Ricardo Ramos vs. Kyung Ho Kang
Jeffrey Harris: Ricardo Ramos, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Kyung Ho Kang, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett:Kang, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Kyung Ho Kang, 2-1.
Bantamweight Bout: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson
Jeffrey Harris: Ricky Simon, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Ricky Simon, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Simon, Decision
The staff picks Ricky Simon, 3-0.
Bantamweight Bout: Pedro Munhoz vs. Brett Johns
Jeffrey Harris: Pedro Munhoz, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Pedro Munhoz, Submission, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Munhoz, Decision
The staff picks Pedro Munhoz, 3-0.
THE MAIN CARD:
Featherweight Bout: Cub Swanson vs. Renato Moicano
Jeffrey Harris: Cub Swanson is coming off back-to-back losses here. However, those losses were to two of the top contenders of the division and two of the best featherweight fighters in the world. Heck, he went to a decision with Frankie Edgar that was actually a lot more competitive than the more one-sided loss he had to Edgar the first time. And Edgar is probably one of the best fighters of all time. I like Swanson’s chances against Moicano here. Moicano is actually a very good prospect for this division. His only loss to date is a submission loss to Brian Ortega. Cub Swanson does tend to be a slow starter, but he’s also a very dynamic striker who comes in at weird angles, which is not a style Moicano is used to facing. I believe Swanson will use that to his advantage to walk away with a win here.
Winner: Cub Swanson, Decision
Robert Winfree: This might look like a gimme for Swanson, who’s on a two fight losing streak but looked competitive in both of those bouts against top level opposition, but it’s not. Moicano is a dangerous up and comer who’s lone loss is to Brian Ortega. Both men are likely going to trade, and both are quite good in that area. Both men are jiu-jitsu black belts but Moicano has a more proven competitive pedigree when it comes to MMA though he’s not inclined to force a fight into that arena. On the feet I like Swanson all things considered, though I’m not counting out Moicano at all, and I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the feet.
Winner: Cub Swanson, Decision
Dan Plunkett Swanson is fighting to keep his top-tier-but-not-quite-elite status here. Moicano has had a strong UFC run and looked very good in April against Calvin Kattar. This is a step back up for him though. I suspect Swanson isn’t quite done yet.
Winner: Swanson, Decision
The staff picks Cub Swanson, 3-0.
Strawweight Bout: Polyana Viana vs. JJ Aldrich
Jeffrey Harris: Two strawweight prospects clash here. Polyana Viana Mota had a successful UFC debut by submitting Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson (the wife of former UFC title contender Joe Stevenson) at UFC Fight Night 125 last February. She faces the JJ Aldrich, who has won her last two fights in the UFC. Viana looked really impressive in her Octagon debut, and she has some strong grappling skills. Aldrich has fought at a higher level for a while, but I think Viana is going to pick up an upset here with her grappling and BJJ skills.
Winner: Polyana Viana, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: I have no idea why this is on the main card of a PPV. Aldrich likely takes another uninspired decision.
Winner: JJ Aldrich, Decision
Dan Plunkett: I think Viana gets the submission.
Winner: Viana, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Polyana Viana, 2-1.
Middleweight Bout: Thiago Santos vs. Kevin Holland
Jeffrey Harris: Thiago Santos faces Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series winner Kevin Holland, who makes his official Octagon debut here. I like Thiago Santos here. He’s a very tough and underrated middleweight. He was knocked out in his last fight by David Branch, but before that he had won four in a row inside the Octagon. Also, he has had nine wins in the UFC. That experience will count for something for Kevin Holland, who is getting thrown into deep waters here. I’m going all in for Santos for this fight. He’s a dangerous striker and knockout artist, and he will eventually put Holland away.
Winner: Thiago Santos, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Thiago Santos can’t quite seem to get over that last hump. He goes on impressive runs over mid level talent but once he takes a step up towards a legitimate top ten guy he seems to falter. It’s a pity because he’s a lot of fun to watch that it seems he’s going to settle into a top ten/fifteen gatekeeper role, but I also don’t like to use that phrase as a pejorative. Kevin Holland has a big chance to make a huge first impression with a win over a guy like Santos, but I can’t pick against Santos against what I think is essentially a rank and file fighter.
Winner: Thiago Santos, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Aside from the top two fights, this is a bad card. Santos takes this one.
Winner: Santos, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Thiago Santos, 3-0.
UFC Flyweight Championship Bout: Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo
Jeffrey Harris: Henry Cejudo is a good fighter, and he’s gotten better since the first fight he had where he got knocked out by Demetrious Johnson. However, I haven’t seen him get to a level that’s going to prove problematic for Demetrious Johnson. I see Johnson cutting off Cejudo everywhere and dictating the pace of the fight. Cejudo will be unable to establish any dominance with his standup or grappling. Johnson wins again and gets yet another title defense for his amazing record-breaking run.
Winner: Demetrious Johnson, Decision
Robert Winfree: I’ve been trying to figure out if I can legitimately pick Cejudo here. Cejudo isn’t the same guy he was when Johnson steam rolled him in the first round of their first fight, he’s worked hard on his striking and adopted a bit of a karate stance and distance closing style, he’s got legitimate power in his hands and he’s still the best pure wrestler in the UFC. In terms of his MMA wrestling he’s still top notch but to be successful here he’s got to force Johnson into just wrestling with him rather than grappling, and Johnson is too smart to play that game. I don’t think this looks exactly like their first fight but Cejudo over five rounds is still an unproven commodity and unless he catches Johnson clean early I don’t like his overall chances of taking the belt away from Mighty Mouse.
Winner: Demetrious Johnson, TKO, Round 4
Dan Plunkett: Is this where Demetrious Johnson’s run stops? I don’t think so. Cejudo is obviously an excellent wrestler and has good hands with above average power for a flyweight. But in Johnson, he fights an athlete that just has too many weapons.
Winner: Johnson, Decision
The staff picks Demetrious Johnson, 3-0.
UFC Bantamweight Championship Bout: T.J. Dillashaw vs. Cody Garbrandt
Jeffrey Harris: Basically, T.J. Dillashaw is going to once again massacre the over-confident and over-emotional Cody Garbrandt. Garbrandt is a dangerous fighter, but he’s not as technical or complete a fighter as Dillashaw. Garbrandt has deluded himself over his last loss to Dillashaw by making excuses, claiming he lost that fight getting off the couch. Fighters always have excuses at the ready whenever they experience a crushing defeat. Dillashaw will be smarter and more technical here. Eventually, he catches Garbrandt like he did the first time and puts him away. Dillashaw retains the belt.
Winner: T.J. Dillashaw, TKO, Round 4
Robert Winfree: This is a tough one to predict. Both men have proven they can win this fight, both men can clearly see the path to victory they need to follow, and both men are operating at the highest level of MMA. For Garbrandt it’s just fighting defense first, he completely shut down Dillashaw in their first fight through the entire first round by doing this but got away from it in the second after getting caught with a kick. For Dillashaw he needs to stay patient, limit the openings he offers and catch Garbrandt guessing. Now, as for who can do that on the night the best, flip a coin. This ultimately comes down to all of the intangibles in fighting, who zigs when they should zag, who falls for a feint, who has what minor physical injury aggravating them and when does it flare up. It’s almost impossible to predict the little things like that. Therefore my pick is based almost entirely on nearly irrelevant circumstance, because if I have to go just on the fighting attributes of both men there’s no real way to call it, they’re just too closely matched.
Winner: TJ Dillashaw, Decision
Dan Plunkett: These two are so well matched that it’s impossible to make a confident pick here. Garbrandt’s hand speed is astounding, and I wouldn’t mind seeing them fight three times, so I’m going with him here.
Winner: Garbrandt, Decision
The staff picks T.J. Dillashaw, 2-1.
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