411 Box Office Report: Aquaman Leads Third Weekend, On Course For $1 Billion Worldwide

Aquaman continues to dominate the box office, as it led the crowd for the third week with a $30.7 million gross. The DC Extended Universe film was down a very solid 42% from its previous weekend take, The film is quickly on its way to becoming one of the biggest hits of 2018, with its current $259.7 million domestic gross ranking it at #7 for the year. That’s only $10 million behind The Grinch’s $269.6 million take, a mark it will overcome without difficulty by next weekend.

More importantly, the film continues to rake in money overseas. At $940.7 million worldwide, the movie is easily the highest-grossing DCEU film worldwide; the previous high was Batman V Superman with $873.6 million. Aquaman looks likely to be the first film in the franchise to top $1 billion, and The Dark Knight’s $1.003 billion gross in particular. There is still a chance it can beat The Dark Knight Rises’ $1.084 billion worldwide take to become the highest-worldwide grossing DC adaptation of all-time. Back here at home, the movie looks set to cross $300 million which would put at #4 among DCEU films behind Wonder Woman ($412.6 million), Batman V Superman ($330.4 million) and Suicide Squad ($325.1 million). This is a huge hit by any measure against a $160 million budget and has breathed new life into Warner’s hopes for DC.

Coming in unexpectedly strong at #2 was Columbia Picture’s horror film Escape Room. The Deborah Ann Woll-starring film brought in $18 million, nicely above the $12 million to $13 million that most expected of it. January is often a dumping ground for studios’ horror dregs, in the hopes that they can scrounge up some cash as counter-programming against the proliferation of Oscar bait. The Devil Inside powered its way to $33.7 million back in 2012 despite utter hatred from critics and fans, and Insidious: The Last Key rode on name value to $29.6 million last year.

But Escape Room seems to be legitimately earning its money. The critics may not love the film, but they haven’t been brutal to it with a 52% Rotten Tomatoes average. Among horror, that’s actually a pretty good rating and at least didn’t hurt the film’s box office potential. That allowed good word of mouth to take sway, as CinemaScore reports a B average from attendees. That’s a good score for horror, which tends to average in the C range. It enabled the film to avoid being too front-loaded and put the movie on a course to success.

Columbia has low stakes on this one, so they’re likely to pay off well. The film cost just $9 million to produce, and marketing was moderate at best on this. Even if the film collapses like January horror often tends to, a $40 million to $45 million would lead to profit here. Odds are likely that it hits at least those numbers, with a $50 million to $55 million take very possible.

Mary Poppins Returns was down a spot to #3 in its third weekend, scoring $15.8 million for a 44% drop. That is perhaps a bit higher than Disney was hoping, but the film is not in bad shape regardless. The sequel to the live-action Disney classic now sits at $138.7 million domestically and $257.9 million worldwide against a $130 million budget, putting it still within the path to profit. International play remains strong in Europe, while domestically the film seems on track for $170 million or so. If it can score upsets at the Golden Globes, it could end its run even higher.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse held onto #4 in its fourth weekend, off just 31% to $13 million. The animated Sony/Marvel film now has $133.9 million domestically and $275.4 million worldwide against a $90 million budget, with a good amount of profit on the way for the studios. The film should be able to end its domestic take at around $170 million and possibly more depending on awards love.

Bumblebee is the little Transformer that could, as it continues to fight its way toward the black. The prequel film was down 39% in its third weekend for $12.8 million. That brings the film to $97.1 million domestically, while overseas it is starting to take off with $192 million for a $289.1 million worldwide total. China’s opening can be thanked for the boost, to no surprise; the market was responsible for half of the last two Transformer film’s overseas numbers. With the film seeing good holds from week to week, Bumblebee should end its run in the US at around $125 million and should be able to bring in a bit of money for Paramount.

Clint Eastwood’s The Mule eased 26% in its fourth weekend $9 million. The drama now stands at a very solid $81.1 million and should continue to hold over the next could weeks, with a $100 million total not out of the woods. If foreign grosses can help out (the film has yet to open overseas), it could bring in a bit of profit on its $50 million budget.

Vice held on well in its second weekend, as the Dick Cheney biopic was down 25% to $5.8 million. That’s exactly what Annapurna hoped to see for the film, which got off to a moderate start last weekend. The political drama is up to $29.8 million domestically and, while not exactly a hit with fans or critics, could continue to play out if its awards momentum keeps up. The film won’t have much potential overseas (films about US politics rarely do), so its chances of making its $60 million budget back are low. But it looks more and more likely to top $50 million at least.

Jennifer Lopez’s Second Act was down 33% in its third weekend with $4.9 million. The film is following pretty typical romantic comedy trends and has a total of $32.9 million domestically and $39.5 million worldwide. It seems likely to finish off at around $50 million or so, which should make it profitable on a $16 million budget.

Ralph Breaks the Internet was likewise off a moderate 30%, bringing in $4.7 million in its seventh weekend. Disney’s sequel now has $187.2 million domestically and $404.8 million worldwide against a $175 million budget, making it a fairly profitable venture. $200 million is still the likely endgame.

Holmes and Watson rounded out the top ten, following its dismal opening with a rough 54% drop to $3.1 million. Compare that to the non-holiday drops of Step Brothers (47%) and The House (45%) and you’ll see there isn’t much for Sony to be happy about here. The film has $28.4 million domestically and $35.5 million worldwide against a $42 million budget, and is likely to lose money with a $40 million domestic final take.

It should be a fourth straight weekend at #1 for Aquaman next week, with no major competition for it. The opening films are drama A Dog’s Way Home and dramedy The Upside, each targeting around $13 million, and Keanu Reeves’ Replicas which should make in the low to mid-single digits.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Aquaman – $30.7 million ($259.7 million total)
2. Escape Room – $18 million ($18 million total)
2. Mary Poppins Returns – $15.8 million ($138.7 million total)
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – $13 million ($133.9 million total)
5. Bumblebee – $12.8 million ($97.1 million total)
6. The Mule – $9 million ($81.1 million total)
7. Vice – $5.8 million ($29.8 million total)
8. Second Act – $4.9 million ($32.9 million total)
9. Ralph Breaks the Internet – $4.7 million ($187.2 million total)
10. Holmes and Watson – $3.1 million ($28.4 million total)