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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
WELCOME:
It’s champion vs. champion as light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier challenges heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 226! In the co-main event, heavy hitters collide as Francis Ngannou faces Derrick Lewis. At welterweight, Paul Felder battles “Platinum” Mike Perry. Plus, Michael Chiesa faces Anthony Pettis, Gokhan Saki vs. Khalil Rountree Jr., and more!
THE STAFF:
https://youtu.be/DddLtQDHxKA
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First two prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Strawweight Bout: Jamie Moyle vs. Emily Whitmire
Robert Winfree: Jamie Moyle, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Moyle, Decision
Lightweight Bout: Dan Hooker vs. Gilbert Burns
Robert Winfree: Dan Hooker, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Burns, Decision
Welterweight Bout: Curtis Millender vs. Max Griffin
Robert Winfree: Curtis Millender, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Millender, Decision
Lightweight Bout: Lando Vannata vs. Drakkar Klose
Robert Winfree: Lando Vannata, TKO, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Vannata, TKO, Round 2
Bantamweight Bout: Raphael Assuncao vs. Rob Font
Robert Winfree: Raphael Assuncao, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Assuncao, Submission, Round 2
Middleweight Bout: Uriah Hall vs. Paulo Costa
Robert Winfree: Paulo Costa, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Costa, TKO, Round 2
THE MAIN CARD:
Light Heavyweight Bout: Gokhan Saki vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Robert Winfree: Just let it end fast. Rountree has power but doesn’t have near the striking credentials or technique of Saki and if he wants to be successful here he should be faking a lot of double legs and then come up swinging. All in all I like Saki to take this but it really comes down to who lands first.
Winner: Gokhan Saki, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Saki is better on the feet, so the power-punching Rountree will need to switch things up to win. Like Robert, I think Saki takes it early.
Winner: Saki, TKO, Round 1
Catch-weight (157.5 lbs.) Bout: Michael Chiesa vs. Anthony Pettis
Robert Winfree: Pettis is the more dynamic fighter but he’s probably going to hamper himself in a few ways here. First he prefers to fight opposite stance to his opponent despite having essentially always been better from the southpaw stance, and Chiesa fights southpaw so Pettis is likely to fight orthodox. Second is Pettis’ footwork, because Chiesa is going to push forward and if Pettis isn’t prepared to constantly circle and angle to avoid getting his back on the fence he’s going to wind up clinched and from there Chiesa is almost certainly going to get him down. The most interesting thing in this fight is Chiesa’s back control against Pettis’ escapes from back mount, because Pettis has an uncanny ability to escape when someone has his back. I liked Chiesa when this fight was first booked and haven’t seen much reason to change my stance on it.
Winner: Michael Chiesa, Submission, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Chiesa hasn’t fought in more than a year, which is partially attributable to Conor McGregor throwing a dolly at a bus window. Prior to his last to Kevin Lee in June 2017, Chiesa was on an excellent run, winning five of his previous six fights (the lone loss was a cut stoppage). Pettis has had a rough few years since Rafael dos Anjos beat him off a Wheaties box. He’s lost five of his last seven, and I tend to think he’ll have a tough time on Saturday. Chiesa will wrestle him and I expect he’ll be able to control Pettis on route to the win.
Winner: Chiesa, Decision
Welterweight Bout: Paul Felder vs. Mike Perry
Robert Winfree: We should all pay attention to the cautionary tale that is becoming Paul Felder’s UFC run. Here’s a guy willing to fight, do so in a fan friendly style, frequently on short notice or at a minimum against dangerous opponents, does commentary for the UFC, and somehow still gets the short end of the stick. Case in point here, Felder was to fight James Vick at an event later this year but Vick moved in to the main event of an upcoming card against Justin Gaethje and Felder now finds himself on a shorter time table and up a weight class against a violent brawler who’s a natural welterweight. It just bears noting that being a company man rarely pays off, unless you can get some serious long term benefits out of it. With that out of the way, this fight should be a violent affair and both men have no trouble using every available offensive weapon. The size different could play a role here if they get close, and both men have some sizzling elbow work in the clinch, but I think Felder will try to stick and move more than just brawl and show off his leg kicks. Felder is the all around more skilled fighter, but counting out Perry would be a huge mistake.
Winner: Paul Felder, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Perry traditionally falls to more disciplined, skilled strikers. Felder is certainly more skilled, but he can put himself in dangerous spots. Against Charles Oliveira in December, Felder willingly went to the ground with Oliveira—basically the best thing Oliveira could hope for—and beat the hell out of him. Both are exciting fighters, so I think we’ll see both fighters in moments of danger here, but I have more faith in Felder pulling it out in the end.
Winner: Felder, Decision
Heavyweight Bout: Francis Ngannou vs. Derrick Lewis
Robert Winfree: Again, just let it end quickly. Both men have seriously questionable gas tanks, though Lewis tends to go into power saving mode for surges later as the fight wears on. Both guys prefer to strike, surprisingly Ngannou might be more technical, and I expect a quick slugfest likely with Ngannou landing the cleaner shot first.
Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: These two are similar in their finishing abilities but differ in their approaches. Ngannou is a fast finisher and more of an urgent hunter. Lewis is more patient, and his fights tend to drag into the second or third round before we see a finish. I think the length of the fight will mostly be determined by Ngannou. If he’s aggressive and looking to end it early, then it should end early one way or the other. If he’s more tentative after fighting Miocic, hell, we could go all three rounds. My pick comes down to durability, and Ngannou ate tremendous shots against Miocic, while Lewis has been stopped a few times. For that reason, I lean toward Ngannou.
Winner: Ngannou, TKO, Round 2
UFC Heavyweight Championship Bout: Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier
Robert Winfree: This fight comes down to distance management. If they fight in the clinch or on the mat, Cormier should have the advantage but if they’re at distance Miocic likely wins things. I tend to see this fight playing out like a hybrid of Miocic vs. Nelson and Cormier vs. Gustafsson. Miocic has great foot work and angling when he chooses to use it, he can jab and flurry well and I think he’ll spend a lot of time jabbing, turning, and landing combinations on Cormier as Cormier tries to close distance. That isn’t to say Cormier can’t win, his wrestling is maybe the best in the UFC and the longer this fight goes the more I like his chances, but on the whole I like Miocic here.
Winner: Stipe Miocic, TKO, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: This is a really interesting matchup. Cormier has to get really close to Miocic, which is dangerous because even at fairly close range, Miocic has the power to end the fight. When (or if) Cormier gets in really close is where my questions begin. Can he control Miocic against the fence? Can Cormier, at 39 and dealing with a longer fighter that is agile for a heavyweight, wrestle Miocic to the ground with some consistency? If the answer to those questions is yes, the most likely outcome might be a dominant performance from Cormier.
There are also questions about Cormier’s chin holding up against Miocic’s big heavyweight power. Miocic can certainly knock Cormier—or any heavyweight—out with the right punch, but even if Cormier is going to win a wide decision, he will eat some big punches along the way. I think the added size and lack of a weight cut will help Cormier in this regard, but he’s been hurt in most of his recent light heavyweight bouts. To his credit, in all but one case, he showed excellent recovery.
Ultimately, Miocic is the safer pick here. My feeling is that if it goes into the third round, that probably means Cormier’s game is working and he’ll be able to wear Miocic down. But even if his game is working, he’ll be in a serious danger zone for two or two-and-a-half rounds, which is why I’m going with Miocic.
Winner: Miocic, TKO, Round 2
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