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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor

October 6, 2018 | Posted by Dan Plunkett
Conor McGregor Khabib Nurmagomedov UFC 229

WELCOME:
It’s shaping up to be the most lucrative fight in MMA history as Conor McGregor returns to the cage to challenge Khabib Nurmagomedov for the UFC lightweight title! In the co-main event, Tony Ferguson takes on Anthony Pettis. At light heavyweight, Ovince Saint Preux looks to curb Dominick Reyes’s momentum. Plus, Derrick Lewis fights Alexander Volkov, Michelle Waterson vs. Felice Herrig, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’s 411’s Jack of All Trades, Jeffrey Harris!

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • And your host, Dan Plunkett:

    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
    First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
    Welterweight Bout: Ryan LaFlare vs. Tony Martin

    Jeffrey Harris: Ryan LaFlare, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Ryan LaFlare, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: LaFlare, Decision

    Lightweight Bout: Gray Maynard vs. Nik Lentz

    Jeffrey Harris: Nik Lentz, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Nik Lentz, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Lentz, TKO, Round 2

    Bantamweight Bout: Lina Lansberg vs. Yana Kunitskaya

    Jeffrey Harris: Lina Lansberg, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Yana Kunitskaya, Submission, Round 1
    Dan Plunkett: Kunitskaya, Submission, Round 1

    Lightweight Bout: Scott Holtzman vs. Alan Patrick

    Jeffrey Harris: Alan Patrick Decision
    Robert Winfree: Alan Patrick, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Patrick, Decision

    Bantamweight Bout: Aspen Ladd vs. Tonya Evinger

    Jeffrey Harris: Aspen Ladd, TKO, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Tonya Evinger, TKO, Round 3
    Dan Plunkett: Evinger, Decision

    Welterweight Bout: Vicente Luque vs. Jalin Turner

    Jeffrey Harris: Vicente Luque, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Vicente Luque, Submission, Round 1
    Dan Plunkett: Luque, Decision

    Flyweight Bout: Sergio Pettis vs. Jussier Formiga

    Jeffrey Harris: Sergio Pettis, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Jussier Formiga, Submission, Round 2
    Dan Plunkett: Formiga, Decision


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Strawweight Bout: Michelle Waterson vs. Felice Herrig

    Jeffrey Harris: I’ve got to go with the Karate Hottie here. Felice Herrig did make some improvements to her game and had a nice winning streak before her loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, but I don’t see her posing too many problems to Michelle Waterson. Overall, I see Waterson dominating this fight and catching Herrig in a submission.
    Winner: Michelle Waterson, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: If Herrig is smart here she should win, she’s bigger and a lot of her game plays well against Waterson. Waterson is good on top and is one of the few women in the UFC who’ll actually wrestle rather than just clinch and go for that awful head and arm throw but she’s undersized at strawweight and that’s started to come into play over her last few fights. Herrig isn’t great, but if she corrals Waterson and imposes her game plan she should win.

    Winner: Felice Herrig, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: Waterson fought very closely with Cortney Casey in April in a fight I thought Casey won, but the judges went the other way and Waterson avoided a three-fight losing streak. I just think Waterson is fighting uphill in this division, as she’s better suited for atomweight.

    Winner: Herrig, Decision


    Heavyweight Bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Alexander Volkov

    Jeffrey Harris: Say what you will about Derrick Lewis, but he’s still 11-3 in the UFC. The guy clearly has talent, and he’s very resilient in longer fights. His cardio and striking skills aren’t world class, but the later rounds are tend to be when he wakes up and has some of his best moments. I see this being a lot like the Viktor Pesta fight. He will try to take down Lewis and grind him. That might work for a round or two, but Volkov will eventually tire and fall prey to the heavy hands of Lewis. Lewis has this in the back and smashes Volkov in the later rounds.
    Winner: Derrick Lewis, TKO, Round 3

    Robert Winfree: Normally I just wish for heavyweight fights to end quickly, but in this case we’ve got a couple of guys who can actually fight. Derrick Lewis has been on a great run recently, despite some of the flaws in his game. Lewis manages his cardio well, which isn’t to say he doesn’t tire but he’s good about taking breaks and getting back to fighting when he’s able. Volkov is another quality heavyweight, he’s the superior technician though he lacks a bit of the raw firepower that Lewis brings. Lewis tends to excel when countering his opponents, be that punishing them for taking him down or clipping them on the feet when they get sloppy, which leads me to favor Volkov. If Volkov keeps this technical he should be able to break down Lewis and take the fight. If things get into brawling territory though Lewis should have an edge.

    Winner: Alexander Volkov, TKO, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: Derrick Lewis is the best, but I really don’t trust his back, which has affected him in two of his last three fights, and once caused him to retire. I think Volkov will outwork Lewis here, but Lewis will see the final bell.

    Winner: Volkov, Decision


    Light Heavyweight Bout: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Dominick Reyes

    Jeffrey Harris: The UFC is throwing Dominick Reyes into the Top 10 waters to see if he can pan out as a prospect for the light heavyweight division. The 28-year-old Reyes is unbeaten in the UFC and MMA, and he could be something the division sorely needs right now. At this point, that budding young prospect is not Ovince Saint Preux. That being said, while Preux generally wilts in the bigger, more important fights, he’s still an experienced and skilled fighter and grappler. Reyes has yet to fight the caliber of an opponent like Ovince Saint Preux, who in his last fight made short work of a young up-and-coming prospect in Tyson Pedro by submission. I see Saint Preux utilizing his grappling and submission skills to get Reyes to the mat and catching him with a submission.

    Winner: Ovince Saint Preux, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: This division is a wasteland. Dominick Reyes is the only prospect left at this point, though I’m not going to totally rule out Cirkunov or Krylov turning things around, and now he’s got a shot to prove himself. Saint Preux is the best opponent he’s fought by a wide margin, but it’s still winnable for him. Saint Preux is a very awkward guy, he never seems to have his balance quite right and gets hit a lot. That’s a bad thing against Reyes. I’m picking Reyes here, but this could be a case of too much too soon and Saint Preux takes him out.

    Winner: Dominick Reyes, TKO, Round 1

    Dan Plunkett: As Robert indicated, Reyes is one of a few fighters that can breathe some life into the stale light heavyweight division. He’s a finisher—unbeaten in nine fights, he’s stopped eight of his opponents. He looked good defeating Jared Connonier earlier this year. Saint Preux is an established good-not-great fighter, and therefore is a good test for Reyes getting to the next level. I’m picking Reyes, more out of hope of something fresh than anything else.

    Winner: Reyes, TKO, Round 2


    Lightweight Bout: Tony Ferguson vs. Anthony Pettis

    Jeffrey Harris: Tony Ferguson should arguably be facing one of the two fighters in the main event. The man has truly lived up to his nickname of El Cucuy. He has been a boogeyman for the lightweight division and has been toppling opponents left and right. He has one of the best winning streaks in the UFC, and he will get another win at UFC 229. Anthony Pettis is a good striker, and he might even be a better counter-striker than Ferguson, but Ferguson is a monster inside the Octagon. Ferguson is more powerful than Pettis. He’s a better grappler than Pettis, and he’s definitely a better wrestler. This is a nightmare of a match-up for Pettis, and it’s going to be a long night for him. Ferguson is going to beat him up and eventually finish him off.

    Winner: Tony Ferguson, Submission, Round 3

    Robert Winfree: This is a solid fight. Ferguson returns after a pretty nasty knee injury but should be able to get back on the winning side of things here. Pettis is a dangerous sniper, but he’s never excelled in combinations or at dealing with pressure and Ferguson tends to do both of those things. Pettis is also very accepting of being on his back, it’s not that hard to imagine Ferguson getting him there via a traditional double leg or more likely through a snap down from a front head lock. Expect blood, but I think Ferguson comes out on top.

    Winner: Tony Ferguson, TKO, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: Pettis looked tremendous in July. For the first time in four years, he seemed like he was firing on all cylinders. But Tony Ferguson is a different animal than Michael Chiesa. Ferguson hasn’t lost in ten fights, and while he’ll need to be careful everywhere against Pettis, I don’t think there will be any position in which he’ll be uncomfortable. He puts the pressure on Pettis and takes the win.

    Winner: Ferguson, TKO, Round 3


    UFC Lightweight Championship Bout: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor

    Jeffrey Harris: Provided this fight happens, because there is still time for it to fall apart, I’m going all in for Khabib Nurmagomedov. Now, let me preface that prediction that if Nurmagomedov fights stupid and chases Conor McGregor around, that could make it a short and bad night for him. McGregor’s takedown defense is bad, and it’s always been bad. He should be focusing on that. Take McGregor to the mat and start pounding him out. He shouldn’t try and stand with McGregor. Granted, McGregor tends to fight stupidly as well a lot, and he likes to fight with his chin wide open. That’s a mistake Nurmagomedov has made before as well and needs to avoid here. Otherwise, Nurmagomedov is basically going to get McGregor to the mat and smash him on the ground for five rounds.

    Winner: Khabib Nurmagomedov, Decision

    Robert Winfree: I love this fight. I hate that we have no idea what’s going to happen. Neither man has fought anyone like the other. In the case of Khabib he’s not fought a dangerous and accurate striker like McGregor and McGregor hasn’t fought a strong wrestler in years, much less one with Khabib’s abilities. It’s not hard to imagine either man winning, for McGregor he baits Khabib into closing distance badly and cracks him with a left to the chin. For Khabib, he either avoids that blow or eats it and bulls into the clinch then drags Conor down and mauls him. McGregor’s cardio is still an issue, but Khabib’s only five round fight was contested almost entirely at his own pace and against a much lower level of opposition. I’ve gone back and forth on this a lot and if I was writing this yesterday I’d be going the other way.

    Winner: Conor McGregor, TKO, Round 1

    Dan Plunkett: Earlier today (Friday) I decided that I favored Khabib. Hours later I decided that I favored McGregor. I have no idea. Khabib is excellent at forcing the fight to play out the way he wants it to play out. We’ve never really seen things go drastically wrong for Khabib. However, when the going has gotten a bit tough, he’s still perceived. McGregor has been in rough spots, and while he’s mentally equipped to fight out of them, sometimes his body hasn’t responded the way he wanted it to. Right this second, I’m thinking Khabib has proven to be durable and so I’m leaning his way, but this is very well-matched (even though two of the most likely results are one-sided fights).

    Winner: Nurmagomedov, Submission, Round 3


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