411 Box Office Report: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Leads the Weekend

The Potterverse found yet another weekend at the box office, with Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opening at #1. The second film in the Fantastic Beasts spinoff brought in $62.2 million to claim the top spot. That is the lowest opening for a Potterverse film to date and below the estimated $65 million to $70 million that analysts were expected it to gross heading into the weekend. Warner Bros. is likely a little disappointed on how the film did on domestic soil.

That said, the film is by no means a failure by any measure, or even much of a point of concern for the studio. The reason? Overseas grosses. Crimes of Grindelwald opened like a monster, bringing in $191 million in seventy-nine markets. That dwarfs the $145.5 million overseas start of the first Fantastic Beasts. And it must be pointed out that the first film delivered the vast majority (71% to be specific) of its $814 million worldwide take outside of the US and Canada. That’s a testament to the franchise’s worldwide appeal.

The sagging domestic start is due to several factors, mostly scheduling and buzz. The film enters a marketplace that is still drawing from its target demographics, from families (The Grinch) to the fandom crowd and adult audiences (Bohemian Rhapsody). To make things worse, the film has been capturing a fair amount of negative buzz due to lackluster reviews (a 40% consensus average on Rotten Tomatoes). While CinemaScore reports a solid B+ audience rating, that’s below the first film’s A. And RelishMix, which tracks social media reactions, reports a decidedly mixed reaction to the film and its plot twists.

But none of that will kill the film’s bottom line. Crimes of Grindelwald will ultimately finish off domestically well below the $234 million of the first Fantastic Beasts, to be sure. But the domestic grosses will lift the film well into profit margin, even with a $200 million budget. The final domestic tally should be somewhere around $150 million to $170 million.

The Grinch held on quite well in its second weekend in the face of Fantastic Beasts. The Universal animated film brought in $38.2 million, down an impressive 44% from its opening weekend. That’s far better than the 54% for Despicable Me 3 last summer, and even better than The Lorax’s 45% six years ago. The holiday film has $126.5 million domestically and $151.7 million worldwide. It will continue to perform well in the coming weeks, and should be able to top $200 million domestically by the end of its run. The budget was $75 million.

Bohemian Rhapsody continued to show solid legs, down 50% in its third weekend with $15.7 million. Considering the good hold last weekend, this isn’t bad at all. The Freddie Mercury-centered rock biopic now has $127.9 million domestically and a fantastic $384.3 million worldwide on a budget of just $52 million. The film will very likely cross $170 million domestically and is, needless to say, a hit for Fox.

Coming in at #4 was Instant Family. The adoption-themed comedy nailed down $14.7 million, around where analysts expected it to start. This is a fairly solid start for the Mark Wahlberg and Rose Byrne-starring film, which is flying high on critical praise (81% on RT) and audience word of mouth (A CinemaScore). While some of its audience was stolen by the blockbusters, Instant Family took advantage of a marketplace that is lacking in live-action comedies.

Instant Family flew in sort of under the radar. Comedies like this don’t generate the buzz of flashier or higher-concept comedies. But it will likely find its audience in the coming weeks with good legs, as the 28% bump from Friday to Saturday suggests. $45 million seems eminently possible for this film, and if it catches on properly it could end up well over $50 million in the US. It will need overseas grosses to get to a profit margin against its $48 million budget, but it’s not in the worst shape it could be in.

For a big-budget, high-profile film positioned for Oscar season, Widows fell short of expectations. The Steve McQueen-directed crime drama started with $12.3 million, below the high teens opening that most expected it to do. This is bad news for Fox, who were hoping that this film’s high critical buzz (91% on RT) would help carry it into award season looking pretty. But that didn’t seem to happen, as audiences ended up sticking with the blockbusters over the sophisticated thriller.

Worse news for Fox comes in the word of mouth, which may end up being a touch less than sparkling. CinemaScore reports a B rating from audiences, which is not great for a film like this. There’s no nice way to put this; Fox did a poor job marketing the film, relying on the good reviews that rolled in after its Toronto International Film Festival bow in September. Audiences need more than just TV spots telling them how much critics liked the film juxtaposed with the same trailer clips over and over again, and Widows’ marketing campaign proved that.

The big question now is whether the film can find its way to profit. It’s not impossible if the movie catches on, but it will be a challenge. Award season could still provide a life raft, but barring newsworthy holds the domestic total should end up around $45 million to $50 million as a best-case scenario. Overseas the film is just starting and has $7.3 million in a few markets. The budget was $42 million.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms continued to slide its way down the charts, dropping 54% in its second weekend to $4.7 million. It continues the disappointment this film is bringing Disney, with $43.9 million domestically and $116.3 million worldwide against a $120 million budget. The film is still on course to end its domestic total at around $55 million to $60 million and the overseas success won’t be enough to keep this from being a money loser for the House that Mickey Built.

A Star Is Born brought in $4.4 million in its seventh weekend, down 46%. The musical drama had to rep a larger drop at some point, and here we are. It’s obviously still a huge hit, with $185.8 million domestically and $340.7 million worldwide. As award season looms, it should continue to hold on especially if it gets a late-year theater count re-explansion. $210 million seems likely in the US. The budget was $36 million.

Overlord followed its okay first weekend with a hard second-weekend drop. The horror/war film grossed $3.9 million, down 62%. That is a brutal hit for the film, and puts it in a position where a profit while in theaters is very unlikely. The movie has $17.7 million domestically and $32.7 million worldwide against a $38 million budget. It should finish off its domestic run around $25 million.

Also falling on its nose in weekend two was The Girl in the Spider’s Web, which dropped 68% to $2.5 million. If it wasn’t clear before that audiences just had no interest in an American-made Lisbeth Salander film from anyone but David Fincher, it’s obvious now. The action-thriller is sitting at $13.3 million domestically and $26.6 million worldwide, heading to a final gross around $20 million in the US. Sony is losing money on this film, which had a $43 million production budget.

Nobody’s Fool closed out the top ten with $2.3 million, also down heavily from last weekend. The Tyler Perry comedy was down 66% in its third weekend. It sits at $28.9 million domestically and $29.2 million worldwide and will end its run at around $35 million domestically. It will have some issues making back its $19 million budget.

Next weekend will see a new crop of big-budget films hoping to break out over Thanksgiving weekend. Wreck-It Ralph sequel Ralph Breaks the Internet is expected to bring in $50 million over the Friday to Sunday period, while Creed II should bring in $30 million to $35 million and Robin Hood is targeting about $10 million. All three films open on Wednesday, so will have much higher than the three-day totals by the end of next weekend.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – $62.2 million ($62.2 million total)
2. Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – $38.2 million ($126.5 million total)
3. Bohemian Rhapsody – $15.7 million ($127.9 million total)
4. Instant Family – $14.7 million ($14.7 million total)
5. Widows – $12.3 million ($12.3 million total)
6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms – $4.7 million ($43.9 million total)
7. A Star Is Born – $4.4 million ($185.8 million total)
8. Overlord – $3.9 million ($17.7 million total)
9. The Girl in the Spider’s Web – $2.5 million ($13.3 million total)
10. Nobody’s Fool – $2.3 million ($28.9 million total)