411 Box Office Report: The Predator Tops The Nun To Claim #1 Spot

It was hunting season at the box office this weekend, as The Predator beat out The Nun to reign at #1. The Shane Black-directed continuation of the Predator franchise scored $24 million, which was slightly softer than predictions heading into the weekend but good enough for the top spot. Fox probably isn’t quite ecstatic at this number; it ranks well below the franchise record of $38.3 million set by Alien Vs. Predator in 2004 and is even a touch below the 2011 Predators’ $24.8 million launch. Still, it’s not the worst number imaginable by a long shot.

There are a couple of asterisks to be applied to this opening. First off, the number is an obvious estimate, being a very round number at exactly $24 million. As such, the final number may well end up slightly lower once final numbers are released tomorrow. Secondly, The Predator had a much higher budget than Predators at $88 million vs. the 2011 film’s $40 million. That is going to be a point of concern for the studio, who will be likely watching closely to see how the film holds from weekend to weekend before making any franchise decisions.

The Predator’s biggest challenges heading into the weekend were self-inflicted. The film didn’t exactly capture critics’ imagination, for one thing. Rotten Tomatoes’ consensus or critic reviews aggregates the average at a sketchy 34%, a number that appears to have had an impact on the movie’s start. There was hope early in the weekend that the film would survive those reviews for a higher opening, but audiences weren’t keen on it either with a C+ CinemaScore. That would have been okay if The Predator was a horror film, but this entry plays like an action blockbuster. And in that genre, anything below a B is a misstep.

Can the film make it into a profit zone? It’s still possible, to be sure, but the odds are not great. A film that saw its first weekend soften throughout the weekend like this one did is generally going to be looking at higher than average week-to-week drops. Predators also had a C+ CinemaScore, and it barely reached a final gross doubling its opening weekend. The Predator has the benefit of weaker competition going forward (at least until it hits Halloween on October 19th), and it could end up at around $70 million domestically. It would still then need a big number overseas, likely over $200 million from just foreign grosses. It isn’t off to a great start there either, with $30.7 million for a $54.7 million worldwide take. It is currently difficult to see a path to profitability here, though stranger things have happened.

The Predator pushed The Nun to the #2 spot, where the horror flick nailed down another $18.2 million. That’s down 66% from last weekend, which reps the worst second-weekend drop for a Conjuring universe film yet. The previous high was 63% for The Conjuring 2. Don’t cry too many tears though; The Nun is still making pretty significant box office bank for Warner Bros. It has $85.1 million domestically thus far and $228.7 million worldwide on a budget of just $22 million. The movie should be able to top $125 million at this point and, if it holds on better next weekend, still has a shot at The Conjuring’s $137.4 million.

Paul Feig’s A Simple Favor was the big bright spot of the box office weekend. The Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively-starring dramatic thriller scored $16.1 million, beating out the low-teens projections most had. A Simple Favor was an effectively-marketed film, teasing some of the story’s plot twists and playing on Kendrick and Lively’s star power. That set things up nicely, and the reviews drove it home. RT has the film at a 82% average, and audiences who saw it enjoyed it with a B+ CinemaScore.

A Simple Favor may seem like a modest success now, but this is the kind of film that will leg out nicely. More adult-oriented thrillers tend to have longer runs at the box office, as older audiences discover the film through word of mouth and the critical buzz. And again, there isn’t much direct competition as we head into October. The movie is looking likely to finish off with at least $50 million and could go a fair bit higher. International grosses (currently at $3.5 million in a smattering of markets) will push this one to profitability for Lionsgate on a $20 million budget.

Meanwhile, White Boy Rick fell flat. The drama, which stars Matthew McConaughey and is based on a true story, had a quiet $8.8 million start. Studio 8 was hoping that this would be a possible awards contender, but critics weren’t entirely swayed and that kept audiences away. The RT score is a mild 63%, enough for a “Fresh” rating but not enough to excite anyone, and the B CinemaScore isn’t what you want for a lower-key drama that would be looking for repeat business and recommendations.

The big problem that White Boy Rick has comes in the fact that true stories about lesser-known public figures don’t typically play well overseas. That shows in the fact that this one is currently only scheduled for about thirteen international markets, though more may be on the way. That means the film will have to reap most of its box office here in the US. With a likely $35 million final gross, it will be another loser for Studio 8 against its $29 million budget.

Crazy Rich Asians keeps on rolling even as it made way for the new releases. The romantic comedy brought in $8.7 million, down just 34% from last weekend, to bring its totals to $149.6 million domestically and $187.5 million worldwide. The film should continue its run for a little while longer and is aiming for around $170 million to $180 million domestically once it’s done. Needless to say, that’s a huge number. The film is a huge hit on a $30 million budget.

Jennifer Garner’s action-thriller Peppermint fell predictably after its moderate start last weekend. The revenge tale chalked up $6.1 million, down 54%, and now sits at $24.3 million domestically and $25.6 million worldwide. The film looks unlikely to make it above $40 million stateside, which means that its staggered overseas rollout will need to bring in the bacon if it wants to make much money against the $25 million budget.

The Meg grossed $3.8 million in its sixth weekend, down a solid 38% from last weekend. The action film has been defying expectations throughouts its run, and has brought its totals to $137.1 million domestically and a stellar $505.3 million worldwide. Warner Bros. is very happy with this film, which should end its domestic run around $150 million. The budget was $130 million.

Screen Gems’ techno-thriller Searching is holding onto its position in the bottom of the top ten with encouraging regularity, as it was down just 30% to $3.2 million in its fourth weekend. The critically-lauded film is up to $19.6 million domestically and $45.8 million worldwide. The budget on the film isn’t known, but is likely quite small (the similarly-shot Unfriended and its sequel Dark Web cost just $1 million). It continues to roll on toward a $28 million to $30 million domestic total.

Pure Flix’ latest faith-based drama Unbroken: Path to Redemption opened predictably low, with $2.4 million. That is right around where most expected the 1940s-set film to be. Unbroken is following the faith-based playbook of playing to a narrower audience as it fails with critics (25% on RT) but scores with its targeted demographic (A CinemaScore). Still, films like this tend to be front-loaded and it should end its run around $7 million to $8 million domestically. That won’t be enough for profit on a $6 million budget.

Mission: Impossible: Fallout closed out the top ten with $2.3 million, down 40% in its eighth weekend. The action film has now topped Mission: Impossible II to become the highest-grossing film in the franchise domestically at $216.2 million, and has topped the series’ worldwide scale as well with $760.9 million. It is a huge money-maker for Paramount on a $178 million budget, and should finish its run close to $225 million in the US.

Next weekend should see The Predator give away the #1 spot to The House with a Clock In Its Walls. The adaptation of the 1973 novel is aiming for around $20 million. Also opening this coming weekend is Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 11/9, targeting a mid-single digits start. Amazon’s Life Itself and Neon’s black comedy Assassination Nation. Both those films should be in the low- to mid-single digits.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Predator – $24 million ($24 million total)
2. The Nun – $18.2 million ($85.1 million total)
3. A Simple Favor – $16.1 million ($16.1 million total)
4. White Boy Rick – $8.8 million ($8.8 million total)
5. Crazy Rich Asians – $8.7 million ($149.6 million total)
6. Peppermint – $6.1 million ($24.3 million total)
7. The Meg – $3.8 million ($137.1 million total)
8. Searching – $3.2 million ($19.6 mililon total)
9. Unbroken: Path to Redemption – $2.4 million ($2.4 million total)
10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout – $2.3 million ($216.2 million total)