411 Box Office Report: Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Dominates, Mufasa Falls Short

Sonic The Hedgehog 3 reigned supreme at the box office, beating Mufasa into submission for the top spot. The video game-based threequel took #1 with ease, scoring $62 million. That is below early estimates of $70 million that started the weekend, but within the $60 million to $65 million that the studio was expecting coming into the frame.

The number is very solid for the franchise if not stellar, ranking behind Sonic The Hedgehog 2’s $72.1 million start in April of 2022 but ahead of the first film’s $58 million debut in February of 2020. It’s understandable that this didn’t set a franchise record, as the second film opened at the start of the summer season and the weekend before Christmas tends to be quieter. Paramount isn’t stressing this, as they have the holiday season’s usual great holds to hang their hats on.

Sonic 3 came into the weekend with a reasonable amount of buzz but also heavy competition. The film scored with critics at an 86% Rotten Tomatoes critic aggregate score, which Paramount knew they would need considering they were up against Mufasa, Wicked, and Moana 2. Fortunately, audiences liked the film too at a 98% RT audience rating and an A CinemaScore, the latter matching the first two films. That kept hype strong for the film.

It is worth noting that Sonic hasn’t yet opened overseas beyond Norway and the UK, the latter of which it’s only had two days as of Sunday. The studio is opening it in most territories on Christmas or next weekend, so we’ll get a stronger idea of how its international business is then. As of now it has $1.4 million overseas for $63.4 million worldwide. Both previous films did well overseas and there’s no reason to expect this one won’t do the same. There’s a bigger budget to make back this time — $122 million as opposed to $90 million for each of the first two – but the film is looking likely for $180 million stateside if the holiday holds are strong, which will have this positioned well to be a hit.

Disney had a stumble with Mufasa: The Lion King which fell flat at $35 million. That’s way below the $50 million to $55 million most expected it to do. By comparison, the first Lion King live-action film opened to $191.8 million in July of 2019. Ouch. This reps the lowest start for a live-action remake of a Disney animated film, beating even Dumbo’s lousy $46 million start in March of 2019.

Disney’s live-action remakes have traditionally been lucrative, but things have changed since the pandemic. The Little Mermaid was ultimately profitable but had to fight to get there, and the majority of the live-action remakes since 2020 have been Disney+ releases like Lady & The Tramp and Peter Pan & Wendy. With Mufasa, Disney thought they had a hit considering the size of The Lion King’s grosses, but not so much as it turned out.

Scheduling was a big problem here. Disney put the film in a weekend that ultimately included the aforementioned Wicked, Sonic 3 and its own Moana 2. You want to get the holiday holds for your blockbusters, but the family demographic is eating too well right now for a sequel to a live-action remake that not many liked, no matter how much money it made based on hype.

It doesn’t help that, like its predecessor, Mufasa didn’t score with critics. The film has a 56% aggregated average at RT (The Lion King had a 51%). Audiences who saw it liked it with an 89% RT audience score and an A- CinemaScore; it’s just that the hype wasn’t there.

The film’s silver lining lies internationally, where it got off to an okay start with $87.2 million for a $122.2 million worldwide start. That may not be enough to save it though; the $200 million production budget is prohibitive, and the international start was also a bit below expectations. The film isn’t completely screwed right now, as those international numbers could save it if they hold well. But as we stand, it’s going to be viewed as a heavy disappointment regardless. Even those holiday multiples will probably only get it to $120 million or so in the US.

Wicked continues to hold on well, with the musical down 40% in its fifth weekend to $13.5 million. The Universal film is now at $383.9 million domestically and $571.3 million worldwide, a massive hit against a $145 million budget. It is easily going to top $400 million stateside and probably more.

Moana 2 had a bit of a heavier fall than Wicked, down 51% to $13.1 million in its fourth weekend. No one’s shedding tears for the film though, as it is up to $359.1 million domestically and $790.2 million worldwide against a $150 million budget. Disney Animation is making bank on this film, which is also heading toward $400 million domestically.

Angel Studios’ latest film opened at #5 as Homestead took in $6.1 million. The post-apocalyptic thriller bowed above the studios’ November release Bonhoeffer ($5 million) and below March’s Cabrini, making it a solid opening for the company. The film didn’t have much buzz – critical consensus is a 38% on RT, and the RT audience score is 77% while the CinemaScore is a B which are mediocre for Angel’s typical films. But it should do well enough to come close to Cabrini’s $19.5 million domestic total.

Gladiator II was down a solid 42% in its fifth weekend with $4.5 million. Ridley Scott’s sequel has totaled $153.9 million stateside and $416.2 million worldwide, clawing its way toward breakeven against a $250 million budget. It will arrive on VOD on Tuesday, and domestically it is probably set for about $160 million to $165 million as a final number.

Kraven The Hunter took a dive after its disastrous opening. The Sony’s Spider-Man Universe film brought in just $3.1 million, down a brutal 72% from its already-bad start last weekend. That’s not the most embarrassing drop of 2024 (hello, Joker: Folie a Deux’s 81%), but it’s close.

Kraven is in full “massive bomb” territory at this point, with just $17.4 million domestically and $42.8 million worldwide against a $110 million budget. For perspective, it has grossed less after two weekends than Madame Web (also a bomb, to be clear) did in its first four days. Kraven probably won’t pass $28 million in the US. There’s a reason Sony has decided not to continue with the live-action SSU, folks.

Red One took a hit at last, down 66% in its sixth weekend to $1.4 million. The holiday action buddy cop movie has $95.4 million stateside and $178 million worldwide, inching its way to breaking even and on course for about $100 million in the US.

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim followed suit with Kraven, down 72% in its sophomore frame with $1.3 million. That’s not good for this film’s already sketchy chances at profit. The animated fantasy film is at $7.4 million in the states and $15.4 million worldwide against a $30 million budget. It is looking at maybe a $12 million final domestically.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever closed out the top 10 with $825,000, down 36% for the best hold (again) in the top 10. The holiday comedy has $38.5 million in the US and $38.7 million worldwide against a $10 million budget, with a $40 million domestic endgame.

Next weekend will Sonic likely remain at #1. A few new releases arrive on Wednesday in Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu and the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, both targeting a three-day of $10 million to $15 million, and Nicole Kidman’s erotic thriller Babygirl which should have a three-day in the mid-to-high single digits.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – $62 million ($62 million total, $63.8 million WW)
2. Mufasa: The Lion King – $35 million ($35 million total, $122.2 million WW)
3. Wicked – $13.5 million ($383.9 million total, $571.3 million WW)
4. Moana 2 – $13.1 million ($359.1 million total, $790.2 million WW)
5. Homestead – $6.1 million ($6.1 million total, $6.1 million WW)
6. Gladiator II – $4.5 million ($153.9 million total, $416.2 million WW)
7. Kraven The Hunter – $3.1 million ($17.4 million total, $42.8 million WW)
8. Red One – $1.4 million ($95.4 million total, $178 million WW)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim – $1.3 million ($7.4 million total, $15.4 million WW)
10. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever – $825,000 ($38.5 million total, $38.7 million WW)