411 Box Office Report: The Super Mario Bros Movie Threepeats As Evil Dead Rise Scores

It was a third week atop the box office for The Super Mario Bros Movie, who fended off a strong start by Evil Dead Rise to claim #1. The Nintendo game adaptation had another excellent hold as it was down just 37% from last weekend’s numbers to gross $58.2 million. It’s the highest third weekend result for an animated film of all time, continuing the list of records that Universal and Illumination are racking up for the flick.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie now stands at a fantastic $434.3 million domestically and $871.8 million worldwide. It is the fifth-highest domestic box office for an animated film and will easily pass most of those, including the #2 animated film of all-time in 2016’s Finding Dory ($486.3 million). Will it be able to top the $608.6 million final domestic gross of The Incredibles 2? I wouldn’t say that it’s likely, but I also wouldn’t count it out. Right now the film looks likely to at least cross $550 million domestically by the end of its run, and will make it past $1 billion worldwide with ease. Needless to say, this is a massive hit against a $100 million budget.

While it wasn’t near contention for the top spot this weekend, Evil Dead Rise still continued horror’s successful year with a pretty big overperformance. The latest entry in the Evil Dead franchise grossed $23.5 million, well past the mid to high teens start that most predicted coming into the weekend. The result is roughly on par with the 2013 Evil Dead reboot, which grossed $25.8 million.

While the results between the new entry and the 2013 film are comparable, Evil Dead Rise sticks out for a couple of reasons. For one, while it’s been 10 years since the last entry, the fan nostalgia is still not quite as pent up as it was in 2013 when it had been twice as long since Army of Darkness released. For another, Evil Dead opened in a more open marketplace; there was no direct horror film it was competing against whereas Evil Dead Rise is in a crowded horror schedule that includes last week’s The Pope’s Exorcist and Renfield, as well as the last remnants of Scream VI in theaters.

Evil Dead Rise benefitted from a shrewd marketing campaign that really sold the horror of the film, as well as strong critical buzz. The movie has an 84% aggregated score for critic reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, and audiences like it with a B CinemaScore (very good for horror) and an 81% RT audience score.

The film is also off to a solid start overseas, where it has grossed $16.8 million in 58 markets for a $40.3 million worldwide opening weekend. With a budget of just $18 million, Rise will be a success for Warner Bros. and New Line, with a likely domestic gross of at least $65 million and perhaps higher.

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant opened exactly where it was expected to, with $6.3 million. The Jake Gyllenhaal-starring war drama capitalized on good reviews (81% on RT) and then from positive word of mouth, with a 98% RT audience rating and an A CinemaScore.

All that said, this film was never going to be much of a hit – as evidenced by MGM putting Ritchie’s name directly in the title in order to drum up some more buzz for it. War films from the War on Terror era have never done well at the box office, and this one is no exception. $6.3 million is not a bad start, but like most of these films it won’t have a big performance overseas and will be hoping to make profit on its $55 million budget once it hits home viewing. It will likely hold on okay, but it’s not a flashy movie and $25 million domestically is its potential ceiling.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was down just 29% in its fifth weekend with $5.7 million. The action sequel is now at $168.9 million domestically and $358.5 million. It is very close to topping John Wick 3 – Parabellum’s domestic total of $171 million and will do so soon. It is a big hit for Lionsgate with a likely $185 million domestic final. The budget was $100 million.

Ben Affleck’s Air had a good hold in its third weekend, down 29% to $5.5 million. The drama is still needing to show a lot of strength to make back its $70 million budget, but it’s not in awful shape as it stands at $41.8 million domestically and $62.8 million worldwide. It still needs to hold onto those audiences to keep going and will break even at best with a likely $55 million domestic total, but Amazon will be fine with this as it will add value via streaming.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves had the best hold in the top 10 at a drop of just 28% to $5.4 million in its fourth week. The TTRPG-based film has now grossed $82.2 million domestically and $178 million worldwide against a $150 million budget. It will probably not reach the black by the end of its theatrical run, though it will get close to (or perhaps reach) $100 million domestically.

The Pope’s Exorcist had an expected fall from its runner-up spot last weekend, dropping 62% to $3.3 million. That is an unsurprising drop and pretty typical for horror, especially when the horror overperforms. The Russell Crowe-starring exorcism film is now up to $14.9 million domestically and $52 million worldwide. While that doesn’t sound like a huge amount, it is enough for this $18 million-budgeted film to be well on the way to making money. The Pope’s Exorcist seems likely for about $25 million domestically.

Meanwhile, Renfield had a similar drop, though that bodes far less well for the film than it does for Pope’s Exorcist. The horror comedy was off 61% in its second weekend, taking in $3.1 million. That brings the moderately spendy film (a $65 million budget) to $13.6 million domestically and $17.9 million worldwide, making this a money loser for Universal. The film is currently looking at a final domestic gross of around $20 million, which obviously won’t be enough to even come close to making back its budget even if it overperforms in its international openings left to come.

A24 and Ari Aster were back in theaters with Beau Is Afraid, which took in $2.7 million for the weekend. That’s a low start but not a surprising one, considering the film’s prohibitive three-hour runtime and the lack of a strong critical buzz. The film has a merely okay 68% RT aggregate score, and the audience reaction is an equally-solid-but-not-great 74%.

The studio is surely not surprised by this result, as it isn’t easy to market what is being described as a surrealist tragicomedy with horror elements. That’s an eclectic mix that never tends to play well in box office grosses. The strategy with these kinds of films is to get some awareness for it through a theatrical release so that it does well on home viewing. The film hasn’t yet opened overseas but with $3.1 million to date (it opened in four theaters last weekend), it is looking likely to finish out with around $10 million to $12 million domestically.

Sony Pictures had another week in the top 10 for the anime film Suzume, which was down 68% to $1.6 million. The Makoto Shinkai movie is now at $8.4 million domestically, but $297.4 million worldwide. It’s a big hit thanks to the international gross and should finish out domestically around $12 million or so.

Super Mario Bros. should spend a fourth frame at #1 next weekend as two new films go wide. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret is expected to gross in the high teens, while the sports drama Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World is targeting $8 million to $10 million. Focus Features’ Polite Society is also opening but should be in the lower part of the top 10.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie – $58.2 million ($434.3 million total, $876.4 million WW)
2. Evil Dead Rise – $23.5 million ($23.5 million total, $40.3 million WW)
3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant – $6.3 million ($6.3 million total, $6.3 million WW)
4. John Wick: Chapter 4 – $5.7 million ($168.9 million total, $358.5 million WW)
5. Air – $5.5 million ($41.8 million total, $62.8 million WW)
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves – $5.4 million ($82.2 million total, $178 million WW)
7. The Pope’s Exorcist – $3.3 million ($14.9 million total, $52 million WW)
8. Renfield – $3.1 million ($13.6 million total, $17.9 million WW)
9. Beau Is Afraid – $2.7 million ($3.1 million total, $3.1 million WW)
10. Suzume – $1.6 million ($8.4 million total, $297.4 million WW)