411 Box Office Report: Taylor Swift Trips Up The Smashing Machine, Soars To #1

Taylor Swift scored her second box office #1 this weekend as The Official Release Party of a Showgirl knocked out The Smashing Machine on its way to the top spot. The half-documentary, half-commercial for Swift’s new album reigned this weekend with a fantastic $33 million. That’s the highest start for a non-narrative film since – well, since Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour bowed in October of 2023.

While Showgirls’ start is peanuts compared to the $93.2 million start of The Eras Tour, the two aren’t comparable for a number of reasons. For one, The Eras Tour is a concert film depicting what the most popular concert tour of all-time while Release Party of a Showgirl is simply a companion film/theatrical listening party for Swift’s new album. The demand for the earlier film was always going to be far higher. For another, Eras Tour was announced weeks in advance, while Showgirl was announced two weeks ago and had less promotion.

The point is, Showgirl is another example of Swift’s pop culture power and ability to dominate the box office at a relative whim. The film was powered by heavy pre-sales numbers as opposed to walk-up business; not many people decided at the theater last minute that it was the movie they were going to watch. Reviews literally mean nothing to this movie; Swift fans were going to see it or not regardless of what critics thought. That said, the few reviews for it are strong and the Swift audience loved it with a 96% RT audience score and A+ CinemaScore.

Generally, audience ratings are good metrics to determine what kind of box office legs a film will have. No worries about that here; Showgirl leaves theaters after Sunday. But it’s been a very profitable venture; there’s no word on the budget but the film consists of a music video for lead track “The Fate Of Ophelia,” behind the scenes of shooting the video, and lyric videos from the rest of the album with Swift introducing each one so the budget is all part of the marketing for the album — which, by the way, has sold 2.7 million copies since its Friday release. That’s the second-highest sales week in the modern (post-1991) era, behind only Adele’s 25.

The film also added $13 million internationally for a $46 million total gross. Long story short: Swift has reasserted her spot as pop culture’s reigning queen and has likely unlocked a new revenue stream that she can keep doing every time she releases a new album. It’s very unlikely that this will be the last Taylor Swift theatrical listening party.

In non-Swiftie box office news, One Battle After Another had a decent enough hold in its second weekend. The Paul Thomas Anderson drama brought in $11.1 million, down 49% from its opening weekend numbers. That’s a big improvement over the 60% drop for Killers of the Flower Moon, which opened at about the same as this one.

As we noted last week, One Battle After Another has a hefty $140 million production budget to make back. As such, this decent hold is music to Warner Bros.’ ears. The film now has $42.8 million domestically and $101.7 million worldwide and will need to keep going if it wants to have any chance of profit before home video. The studio is hoping this plays well enough that it can get some additional money during awards season. As it currently stands, the film is looking likely to top $70 million to $75 million.

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s The Smashing Machine opened softly, as the MMA drama took in just $6 million in its first frame. That’s well below the $10 million to $12 million that A24 hoped for coming into the weekend, to say nothing of the initial $20 million tracking figures weeks back. That’s the lowest opening weekend for the actor and WWE star, behind the previous low of Faster’s $8.5 million start back in 2010.

In a lot of ways, Johnson can blame his friend Swift for the problems. While there’s not a lot of crossover between the two films’ audiences, Release Party of a Showgirl ended up taking most of the Premium Large Format (PLF) screens that tend to goose grosses. That was a blow that A24 didn’t expect, but it also doesn’t explain why the film sank as low as it did.

The bigger answer is simply that Smashing Machine is a film that plays way outside of Johnson’s traditional wheelhouse and while he’s earned a ton of praise for the role, it doesn’t mean his Moana and Fast & Furious fans were going to follow him to this. Smashing Machine also found itself up against One Battle After Another, which is targeting a similar demo. And while the reviews are good, a 78% RT critic aggregated score is not “you have to drop everything to see this movie” good.

Ultimately, this is definitely a money loser in theaters. The film cost $50 million to produce and while international numbers haven’t begun coming in yet, it’s exceedingly unlikely to be able to save the film before it hits digital. That said, A24 has long relied more on home viewing revenue for profit than larger studios. Still, at this point the film seems likely to close at around $20 million which just won’t cut it.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie also got its ass kicked by the Swifties, as the animated family film dropped 60% to $5.2 million in its second weekend. That’s not great for a film that scored well with critics and is a genre that tends to have good box office legs. The film has $21.6 million domestically and $32.5 million worldwide, looking less likely to be profitable before digital with a $38 million budget. But remember, this film is less about theatrical grosses than it is a play for merchandising related to the franchise.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rolled its way into October with $4.1 million, down 40% in its fifth weekend. The Warner Bros. horror film is now up to $167.8 million domestically and $458.2 million worldwide, a massive hit against a $55 million budget. It’ll close out at around $175 million total stateside.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle continued to fade away as expected with $3.5 million, down 51% in its fourth weekend. The anime film is a blockbuster hit with $124.6 million domestically and $633 million worldwide. It’s aiming for around $130 million to $135 million.

The re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water was rather quiet, taking in $3.2 million. The 2022 film’s re-release was to help raise awareness for Avatar: Fire and Ash in December (and bring in a bit more money, of course). This is all extra money for Disney/20th Century Studios, of course. The film has a total of $687.6 million domestically and $2.33 billion worldwide and will be gone from the top 10 next weekend.

Lionsgate got some decent news for The Strangers: Chapter 2 after the horror sequel opened quietly last weekend. The second film in the new trilogy scored $2.8 million, down 52%. That’s a slightly better drop compared to Chapter 1, which was down 53%.

Of course, the first chapter also opened with twice as much as Chapter 2, so let’s not break out the champagne yet. Chapter 2 has $10.7 million domestically and $11.6 million worldwide against an $8.5 million budget. It will likely end up being profitable enough to make Chapter 3 worth a promotional push and while an $18 million domestic total won’t be anything to brag about, Lionsgate needs all the good news it needs of late.

IFC Films had a solid start for Good Boy, which came in at #9. The canine-led horror film grossed $2.3 million, right about where it was expected to going into the frame. That’s comparable to the openings of IFC’s films Late Night With the Devil ($2.8 million), In a Violent Nature ($2.2 million), and only a bit behind the $3.6 million start of Clown in a Cornfield from sister company RLJE in May.

Good Boy was originally planned for a very small theatrical release before arriving on digital, but IFC changed their plans when the film garnered buzz coming out of film festivals thanks to its high concept, strong trailer and critical praise. It was never expected to become a box office smash, but a $2.3 million budget is fantastic for this low-budgeted film. How high it ultimately climbs is dependent on IFC’s release plans, but it seems likely for at least $8 million which will be more than enough for profit.

The Long Walk closed out the top 10 with $1.7 million, down 49% in its fourth weekend. The Stephen King adaptation is up to $31.9 million in the US and $40.6 million worldwide. It will be profitable in theaters against a $20 million budget and should close out domestically with about $35 million.

We’ll have a new #1 next weekend as Taylor Swift exits theaters and Tron: Ares takes its place. The latest entry in the franchise is looking at around $40 million to $50 million. Also opening next weekend is Paramount Pictures’ Roofman and Sony’s Soul on Fire, which should both open in the single digits somewhere.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl – $33 million ($33 million total, $46 million WW)
2. One Battle After Another – $11.1 million ($42.8 million total, $101.7 million WW)
3. The Smashing Machine – $6 million ($6 million total, $6 million WW)
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie – $5.2 million ($21.6 million total, $32.5 million WW)
5. The Conjuring: Last Rites – $4.1 million ($167.8 million total, $458.2 million WW)
6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle – $3.5 million ($124.6 million total, $633 million WW)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water – $3.2 million ($687.6 million total, $2.33 billion WW)
8. The Strangers: Chapter 2 – $2.8 million ($10.7 million total, $11.6 million WW)
9. Good Boy – $2.3 million ($2.3 million total, $2.3 million WW)
10. The Long Walk – $1.7 million ($31.9 million total, $40.6 million WW)