411 Box Office Report: Top Gun: Maverick Edges Out Elvis For Now In Battle For #1

It’s a photo finish at the box office this weekend as Top Gun: Maverick has nosed past Elvis to reclaim the #1 spot. The action sequel and the Baz Lurhmann biopic both came in at $30.5 million for the weekend, with Maverick squeezing out the lead by a made of $176 in the weekend estimates. Obviously that could change when the final numbers come in, but for now Top Gun again ranks as king of the box office.

Maverick was able to pull off the maybe-win by virtue of another great hold, down just 32% from last weekend’s take. In five weekends, the film has held #1 in two of them and now stands at $521.7 million domestically as well as $1.006 billion worldwide. Those are obviously enormous numbers for the legacy sequel, putting the film into megahit territory for Paramount Pictures. $550 million is a sure thing now and $600 million is not at all out of the question. Even against its $170 million budget, this one has made huge money for the studio.

Meanwhile, Elvis’ take is impressive in its own right, even if it’s not assured a profit by any measure as of yet. The biopic about the King of Rock n’ Roll performed right around the $30 million estimate that most expected. It’s the second-biggest opening of the director’s career, behind only 2013’s The Great Gatsby which got off to a $50 million start.

While Elvis is obviously a world-known character, this wasn’t a slam dunk of a box office winner. After all, a two and a half hour film from a style-heavy director like Lurhmann isn’t necessarily a huge draw, no matter who the subject is. And while Tom Hanks was heavily promoted in his role as Colonel Tom Parker, the lead is an unproven box office commodity in Austin Butler. Add in the fact that older audiences have yet to prove they are consistently returning to theaters at the level of younger moviegoers, and Warner Bros. had to be holding their breath here.

Fortunately, the marketing department paid off. Supported with positive critical word of mouth (shown by a 78% aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes) and great world of mouth (an A- CinemaScore and 94% audience reaction on RT), this film got the audiences out for the highest per-theater average in the top 10. The movie added another $20 million in overseas numbers for a $50.5 million first weekend worldwide.

Again, the film does have a lot of money to make before it is a financial success. The production cost $85 million – not on the level of Great Gatsby’s $195 million, but still high. Add in a hefty marketing campaign and the holds will need to be good along with overseas numbers picking up before this hits the black. Music biopics tend to top a 3.5 multiple and if that’s the case here, we’ll be looking at a $105 million domestic total or so.

Jurassic World: Dominion slipped from the top spot in its third weekend, down 55% to $26.4 million. That brings the dino sequel to a solid $302.8 million domestically and $746.7 million worldwide. The film won’t be a hit on the level of the previous two entries, but it’s still a massive money maker against a $165 million budget and should be able to end its domestic run at around $380 million or so.

The Black Phone exceeded expectations, opening with $23.4 million. The horror film from Doctor Strange and Sinister director Scott Derrickson had been predicted for a high teens start, so this is happy news for Universal Pictures. Black Phone is the second-best start for Derrickson in the horror genre, topping Sinister’s $18 million and coming in a little bit below the $30 million start of The Exorcism of Emily Rose in 2005.

Notably, Black Phone’s start means that we had four films bring in at least $20 million in the same weekend for the first time since Thanksgiving weekend 2018, which is something theater owners and studios alike have to be thrilled with. This isn’t rare just because of the pandemic over the last couple years; before 2018, the last time was the weekend ending 23rd, 2017.

Back to the horror film, this movie was riding a wave of positive buzz since it premiered at Fantastic Fest in September of last year. The movie was originally scheduled to open on January 28th, but was pushed back first to February 4th then finally to this weekend. The move allowed it to capitalize on the summer blockbuster season and the reviews helped boost it; it stands at 84% on RT with great audience reception at a B+ CinemaScore (great for horror) and a 90% RT audience rating. The latter in particular has been useful for its hold throughout the weekend as it dropped just 27% on Saturday and 25% in Sunday projections.

This film is another win for Blumhouse, who budgeted it at $18 million and is likely to see serious rewards. In addition to the $23.5 million domestically, it has added $12.3 million overseas for a $35.8 million worldwide take thus far. Horror usually drops quickly, but a lack of competition next week and the positive word of mouth suggests this should be able to at least hit $70 million domestically. That will be more than enough for a hefty profit.

Disney and Pixar’s Lightyear followed up its disappointing start with a pretty hefty fall. The The Toy Story spinoff scored $17.7 million in its second weekend, dropping 65% from last weekend’s start. That is the steepest drop for a theatrically-released Pixar film to date, and doesn’t bode well for how it will perform in successive weeks especially with big competition coming next weekend. The film has now grossed $88.8 million domestically and $152.4 million worldwide against a $200 million cost, making it unlikely to make its money back. The film is now looking likely to close out at around $125 million or so, which is not what the studios wanted by any stretch.

Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness took a hit now that it’s available on Disney+, dropping 61% in its eighth weekend with $1.7 million. The MCU sequel now has $409.2 million domestically and $947 million worldwide, with its sights set on a $415 million total domestically. It’s a huge hit against its $200 million budget.

Everything Everywhere All at Once was off 43% in its 14th weekend with $533,000. The A24 film has now grossed $66.1 million domestically and $89.2 million worldwide, and is looking like it will end its domestic run at around $68 million. It’s a major hit for the studio against a $25 million budget.

The Bob’s Burgers Movie slipped 56% in its fifth weekend, adding $513,000. The FOX animated film is now at $31 million domestically and $33.2 million worldwide, and should finish off with around $33 million stateside. Still no word on how the film’s production budget.

The Bad Guys dropped 56% in its 10th weekend, scoring another $440,000. That brings the Universal film to $95.5 million domestically and $238.6 million worldwide, numbers that Universal Pictures are very happy with. It should reach $97 million or so by the time it leaves theaters and is profitable against a $69 million production budget plus marketing.

Downton Abbey: A New Era closed out the top 10, down 55% in its sixth weekend to $370,000. The sequel is now at $43.3 million domestically and $89 million worldwide. This one isn’t going to be a hit, but it shouldn’t lose Focus Features any money and will end its domestic run at around $45 million.

Next weekend looks will see animated entertainment back on top with Minions: The Rise of Gru the spin-off sequel/prequel is looking to gross in the $75 million range over the four-day weekend. Period drama Mr. Malcolm’s List won’t make much of a splash for Bleecker Street.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Top Gun: Maverick – $30.5 million ($521.7 million total, $1.006 billion WW)
2. Elvis – $30.5 million ($30.5 million total, $50.5 million WW)
3. Jurassic World: Dominion – $26.4 million ($302.8 million total, $746.7 million WW)
4. The Black Phone – $23.4 million ($23.4 million total, $35.8 million WW)
6. Lightyear – $17.7 million ($88.8 million total, $152.4 million WW)
6. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness – $1.7 million ($409.2 million total, $947 million WW)
7. Everything Everywhere All At Once – $533,000 ($66.1 million total, $89.2 million WW)
8. The Bob’s Burgers Movie – $513,000 ($31 million total, $33.1 million WW)
9. The Bad Guys – $440,000 ($95.5 million total, $238.6 million WW)
10. Downton Abbey: A New Era – $370,000 ($43.3 million total, $89 million WW)