411’s AEW Double Or Nothing 2022 Preview

Hello 411 guys, gals, enbies, and everyone else! Welcome to 411’s AEW Double Or Nothing preview! I’m Jeremy Thomas as always, and my oh my I hope you’ve staked some time out for this, because AEW has packed their biggest show of the year to the absolute max. The company is known for going out for this PPV, but they may have outdone themselves this year with THIRTEEN matches on the card (including the Buy-In). Nearly every title is on the like plus the men’s and women’s Owen Hart Foundation Tournaments, some big grudge matches and much more. I could babble on but really, I have enough to write as it is so let’s just jump in, shall we?

The Buy-In Match
HookHausen vs. Tony Nese & Mark Sterling

Image Credit: AEW

First up we have our Buy-In pre-show match, and this shouldn’t be tough. I know that Danhausen isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but even if you don’t love the wackiness of this kind of character you kind of have to appreciate the fact that his segments with HOOK have been really fun. HOOK has been a guy that the AEW fanbase has rallied around hard in his tenure thus far, in part because he’s a guy with a lot of in-ring potential who just comes in, kicks ass, and leaves. That is great, but it’s also a character type in wrestling that can really easily lose momentum when the mystique eventually and inevitably wears off. Putting him opposite a character like Danhausen was a risk, but one that’s paid off for both performers and it’s gotten Danhausen more over with the fans while also adding some new dimensions to HOOK’s persona. All that is to say that this team has been working remarkably well and that makes their match against Tony Nese and Mark Sterling have an obvious result. There’s no disrespect toward Nese and Sterling, who are great in their roles, but this is basically just a showcase to get HOOKhausen their first win as a team which is perfect for the Buy-In. Should be a hijinks-heavy match with an obvious result.

WINNER: HOOKhausen

Ethan Page, Scorpio Sky, & Paige VanZant vs.
Frankie Kazarian, Sammy Guevara, & Tay Conti

Image Credit: AEW

Man, I see what AEW is trying to do with Sammy and Tay but I don’t think it’s working at all. That’s not really on AEW’s shoulders; I don’t think Tony Khan could have expected to know the fans would turn on the two. And they did try to course correct, but they still want to keep Sammy in the TNT Title scene and Tay has her issues with Paige VanZant so they felt like they had to see this through. That means that Sammy and Tay had to take on tweener roles, which is always a difficult alignment to do and I don’t think it’s worked as well as it needed to. This match was set up on Rampage when Sammy, Tay, and their frenemy Kazarian stole some title belts from American Top Team and challenged Men of the Year and VanZant to come get them at the PPV. The stipulation from Sky is that if his team wins, Guevara and Kazarian are done challenging for the TNT Championship. If Kazarian wasn’t involved, I could see this happening but I don’t think that the Kaz/Sky storyline is quite done. I like all five competitors that we’ve seen in this match and VanZant is the X-factor, but I think even if she isn’t quite ready the others should be able to hold up their end. Ideally Men of the Year and VanZant would win so that Sammy and Tay can move on, but I don’t see AEW doing that right now.

WINNER: Frankie Kazarian, Sammy Guevara, & Tay Conti

Darby Allin vs. Kyle O’Reilly

Image Credit: AEW

This was set up in short order by way of the attack on Sting’s leg at AEW Dynamite last week, which led to Allin putting the blame on O’Reilly and challenging to a match at Double or Nothing. I’ve seen worse justification for matches, and these two should match up well so I’m down. Allin has generally had the Stinger out there for his matches, but he’ll be on his own on this one. Meanwhile, KOR has been delivering alongside Bobby Fish in the tag division, and recently made his case for a solo run as a competitor in the Owen Hart Tournament. I don’t think reDRagon are done yet though, and KOR will have plenty of chances for singles action if they do every split. Allin is one of AEW’s golden boys and that makes this a pretty simple prediction for me; unless they’re setting up reDRagon vs. Allin & Sting (which is admittedly always possible), this should end with a Coffin Drop and a pinfall.

WINNER: Darby Allin

House Of Black vs. Death Triangle

Image Credit: AEW

The House of Black has been on a roll since they arrived in AEW, even if they’ve stayed firmly in the midcard. That’s not a bad thing; you need reliable performers at that level, and putting too many people at the top of the card can be a problem. They’ve been engaged in a great little program with Death Triangle, which has done some solid work further establishing both teams. And while there’s no doubt that this match will be on fire from a workrate perspective, I also don’t think there’s much doubt as to the result. While Death Triangle is great, they’re still pretty clearly a lower priority than Malakai Black and company right now. Getting the House of Black a win her allows them to move on to something else, while Death Triangle will still be an instant threat to win the Trios Titles when they eventually get introduced. Should be a great match, and I’m pretty confident our heels are going over here.

WINNER: House of Black

The Hardys vs. The Young Bucks

Image Credit: AEW

The same last sentence for the above match can be applied to this one. The Hardys vs. The Young Bucks is one of those natural feuds that has absolutely needed to happen since the second Jeff Hardy joined his brother in AEW. Now that it’s here, I don’t see it ending with just one match. I don’t think the Bucks need to have a torch passed to them, but on a thematic level that is essentially what this is. And while it hasn’t been a bad feud or anything, it does feel like a rivalry that is really just getting started. Pitting these two teams against each other should be a blast; even at their slower state these days, the Hardys are always entertaining in the ring and they’re perfect opponents for Nick and Matt Jackson. A loss doesn’t even scuff the Hardys, especially if some Elite shenanigans come into play. I expect to see the Bucks pick up the win here to set up a bigger match between the two teams, whether immediately or later down the road.

WINNER: The Young Bucks

AEW TBS Championship Match
Jade Cargill vs. Anna Jay

Image Credit: AEW

Jade Cargill’s continued ascension has been great to see. AEW has done a fine job of building up Cargill as she gets better and better in the ring, and her dominant reign as AEW TBS Champion has really grown her mystique as an unbeatable force. Anna Jay, for all her talent, isn’t going to be the person to change that. AEW has been working to really develop their women’s division and there are women that I could see taking the title off Cargill, but at least right now Jay isn’t one of them. She will provide a solid choice for someone to provide a good fight before going down to Cargill, but this is an easy prediction. When the bell rings, the Baddie section will be standing triumphant.

WINNER: Jade Cargill (STILL AEW TBS Champion)

Anarchy in the Arena
Jericho Appreciation Society vs. Blackpool Combat Club,
Eddie Kingston, Santana, and Ortiz

Image Credit: AEW

There’s a surprising amount of intrigue in this match, which is sure to be a chaotic spectacle. One one hand, the Blackpool Combat Club has had some tension between them as they prepare to battle Chris Jericho and his minions thanks to the collective egos on display. On the other hand, would AEW really book Moxley and Danielson to lose their first big tag team match, even as part of a greater five-person team? The Jericho Appreciation Society is a group, like Jericho’s previous stable, is one that can probably always lose without losing any momentum — but then again, how often can we say that before it stops being true? There is a ton of talent in this match and it should be a wild mix of sports entertainment and top-notch wrestling; the fact that it’s surprisingly hard to pick a winner just makes me more interested here. I’m leaning toward the babyfaces to pick up the win because the BCC is too hot to derail them even a little bit with a loss, but this is definitely one where I could be wrong.

WINNER: Blackpool Combat Club, Eddie Kingston, Santana, and Ortiz

Wardlow vs. MJF

Image Credit: AEW

This match, on the other hand, is the easiest to predict on the show. That doesn’t mean it won’t be good, though. Wardlow and MJF’s storyline had a slow and effective build, and he’s provided a different dynamic to the MJF boilerplate feud than people like Chris Jericho and CM Punk did. More to the point, this has absolutely elevated Wardlow in a major way thanks to his stepping up and MJF’s always-stellar work. AEW has been building to this point for so long that it’s really hard to see how it’s anything other than Wardlow’s ascension, especially with the stipulation that Wardlow can never sign with AEW if he loses. Obviously that’s not going to happen and Wardlow is defeating his boss here, earning his freedom in the process. The match should have an incredibly hot crowd and while the feud may or may not be over with this match, there’s no real chance that Wardlow doesn’t stand victorious in the end.

WINNER: Wardlow

Women’s Owen Hart Foundation Tournament Finals
Britt Baker vs. Ruby Soho

Image Credit: AEW

For a lot of people, the smart money here is on Britt Baker as a chance to build her back up after her Women’s World Championship loss to Thunder Rosa. But does Baker really need to be rebuilt because she lost her title after a lengthy reign? I mean, there’s no doubt that winning this match would put her right back on course toward a rematch with Rosa, but that’s a big part of why I’m skeptical she’s the choice to win here. I feel like if AEW is thinking clearly, they’re holding off on a Baker vs. Rosa rematch because that’s a feud you can always pull out of your back pocket and you don’t want to overexpose it. Meanwhile, Ruby Soho has been delivering good matches in AEW but she has been needing something to get her over the top because she’s come up just short in too many instances. These two had a great match against each other at AEW Grand Slam Dynamite in September of last year, and I’ve little doubt that they can do it again. But while I absolutely can see the idea of Baker winning here, I am going to go with Soho because I think the victory will do more for her than it will the good D.M.D.

WINNER: Britt Baker

Men’s Owen Hart Foundation Tournament Finals
Adam Cole vs. Samoa Joe

Image Credit: AEW

This one is a little easier to predict for me. As much as Samoa Joe is the man, this bout really should be Adam Cole’s to win. AEW has gone a long way toward building Cole as a main event player in the company and he’s been rebuilding a bit since losing his feud to Hangman Page. A win in the Owen Hart Foundation Tournament puts momentum back in his corner as Forbidden Door looms. Meanwhile, while Samoa Joe is obviously great I don’t really think he needs the win her. Joe has been delivering since he debuted and feels like a strong competitor with momentum already — and you can’t discount the idea of shenanigans on the part of Jay Lethal and his posse. I’m excited to see what Joe and Cole do to each other in this match, but Joe already has ROH gold on his side and it absolutely feels like Cole needs this win more, which makes him my pick.

WINNER: Adam Cole

AEW World Tag Team Championship Match
Jungle Boy & Luchasaurus vs. Ricky Starks & Powerhouse Hobbs
vs. Keith Lee & Swerve Strickland

Image Credit: AEW

While I’m excited for this match, I do think it feels a little bit thrown-together considering most of the other bouts on the card. And that’s too bad, because it has the potential to be a sleeper candidate for match of the night if everything breaks the right way. Jungle Boy and Luchasaurus have been great tag team champions and have come through shining in some damned good matches against impressive opponents. While I enjoy Team Taz and the team of Lee & Strickland, this does again seem like a situation where a story was built between two teams and then they were put in a three-way with the champions (see also: the AEW Revolution tag title match). My confidence in Jungle Boy and Luchasaurus winning is slightly qualified by the fact that Christian Cage has been teasing some heelish things and there’s always the chance that he does something that costs the champs the titles to further that, but as it stands I see that being played out a bit more later. The champions are more likely to retain in this situation, perhaps with some Christian-ference.

WINNER: Jungle Boy & Luchasaurus (STILL AEW World Tag Team Champions)

AEW Women’s World Championship Match
Thunder Rosa vs. Serena Deeb

Image Credit: AEW

The big story around this match from a booking perspective is that it’s the first major PPV in a while where Britt Baker is not anchoring the World Women’s Championship match. That’s no statement against either of these women though, both of whom are obviously great workers. Rosa is still early in her reign has champion, having defeated Baker for the title just back in March. She’s already been in the process of establishing herself as a great champion, and putting her against Deeb makes since as they feuded over the NWA Women’s World Championship previously. All that is to say that this is a great match to book as Rosa’s first title defense — but to be clear, it is destined to be the first of many (or at least more than one). Rosa’s road to the championship lasted way too long to end after just barely over two months and while I love Deeb, taking the title off Rosa at this point would make zero sense. Rosa retains in one of the most obvious picks of this PPV.

WINNER: Thunder Rosa (STILL AEW Women’s World Champion)

AEW World Championship Match
Hangman Page vs. CM Punk

Image Credit: AEW

And here we come to the main event. Hangman Page’s AEW World Championship reign has been viewed by some as a disappointment, and while I don’t fully agree I can understand the argument as Page hasn’t had the most memorable feuds even if I would argue he’s constantly delivering on his end. Meanwhile, CM Punk has been having great feuds with a variety of opponents. From a brand name perspective, it’s hard not to argue that Punk brings more recognition to the company than Page currently. On the other hand, there is a point to be made that a win over Punk would absolutely help elevate Page’s name. We know we don’t have to worry about mat5ch quality, because these guys are both great and they should be able to go against each other once the bell rings. As it currently stands, while I can understand the argument for keeping the belt on Hangman I think moving it off of him resets him a little bit and there’s zero doubt in my mind he’ll be the champion again. Meanwhile, Punk makes a very marketable champion who can lead the AEW charge into the Forbidden Door PPV against NJPW, and brings a lot of new main event matches to boot. While this could go either way, I feel like we have a new champion once the dust settles.

WINNER: CM Punk (NEW AEW World Champion)

And that’s all we have for AEW Double or Nothing! “All we have,” I say, as if that’s not enough for two PPVs. This is a beyond-stacked card and I hope that AEW can deliver without the show seeming too overcrowded; as long as they can avoid that trap this should be a spectacular affair. Thanks once again for reading and remember that we will have live coverage of the show courtesy our own Scott Slimmer right here on 411mania.com. Now, I have to go before Tony Khan decides to kick up another storm with a tweet about WWE…

Image Credit: AEW