411 Box Office Report: Wolf Man Stumbles, Mufasa Wins MLK Weekend

The Wolf Man tripped up at the box office this weekend, allowing Mufasa: The Lion King notch an MLK Day weekend win. The Disney “live-action” sequel returned to the top of the box office over the four-day weekend with $15.5 million projected through Monday ($11.5 million through Sunday) as it continued to show its long box office legs. The three-day to three-day drop was just 19%.

The sequel has now become a bonafide success for Disney despite those low opening weekend numbers. It has grossed $209.8 million domestically and $592 million worldwide against a $200 million budget and has nearly sextupled its opening weekend in domestic numbers. It should easily be able to top $225 million and perhaps more – not holding a candle to the previous film, but still a worthwhile financial endeavor for Disney.

The top grossing new release over the weekend wasn’t horror as expected, but instead comedy as One Of Them Days brought in $14 million over four days for #2. Sony Pictures’ Keke Palmer and SZA pairing outperformed its projections of a high single digits start for the three-day weekend and in fact won the Friday to Sunday box office with $11.6 million. It marks the best start for a pure comedy since Barbie opened to its box office-smashing numbers back in July of 2023 – and that was obviously a film on a different level.

Expectations were modest for this film for a number of reasons. For one, comedy is not considered a reliable performer in the theatrical arena anymore unless it’s a cross-genre film like an action comedy, animated comedy, etc. You can sell a comedy on big names, but Palmer and SZA are not known for opening films on their own. For another, the film had largely flown under the radar with very targeted marketing. However, the buzz for this shot up the charts when reviews came in very hot at a 97% critic aggregate at Rotten Tomatoes. And fan response has been equally strong with an A- CinemaScore and a 92% RT audience score.

This is all great news for Sony, who have a hit on their hands. The film had a $14 million production budget and that should be easy enough for the film to make back considering the strong word of mouth and a dearth of direct competition. As it stands, the film should be able to top $30 million to $35 million without breaking a sweat domestically and will prove to be a winner for the studio.

Universal sadly can’t say the same for Wolf Man, which landed with a thud. Leigh Whannel’s reimagining of the Universal horror classic brought in just $12 million over four days and $10.6 million over three. Those numbers are about half what it was expected to score. In a word, ouch. That’s a far sight from Whannell’s The Invisible Man, which grossed $28.2 million in its opening weekend. It falls more along the lines of Renfield, The Last Voyage of the Demeter and Abigail, all of which were box office disappointments and started with between $6.5 million (Demeter) to $10.2 million (Abigail).

What was the problem here? There were a few, really. For one, werewolf films just aren’t generally hits. The last non-animated werewolf film to score at the box office was Underworld: Blood Wars which was more about its IP than its lycanthropes. For another, Universal did not do the best job of promoting the film, which kind of gave it the feeling of being a traditional “dumped in January” horror miss.

It also should be noted that while critics were merely mediocre on Wolf Man (59% on RT), audiences weren’t impressed. The film has a low 53% RT audience score and a C- CinemaScore. That explains why it hasn’t had strength throughout the weekend. And it hasn’t delivered overseas either where it has just $4.8 million for $16.8 million worldwide through Monday. Universal didn’t break the bank on it as it cost just $25 million, but it may struggle to make that back before it hits digital. A $35 million or so domestic total seems to make the most sense.

Sonic The Hedgehog 3 brought in $11 million over four days in its fifth weekend with $8.6 million over three days, down 24%. That puts the threequel’s numbers at $218.9 million in the US and $422.4 million worldwide, making it the highest grosser of the franchise by both metrics. It’s a sizable hit for Paramount against a $122 million budget and should finish out in the $235 million range or higher.

Moana 2 passed a new worldwide benchmark it brought in $8.4 million through Monday and $6.1 million through Sunday, down just 7% in its eighth weekend. The Disney sequel now stands at $445.1 million domestically and $1.012 billion worldwide. It’s on course for around $460 million domestically, very successful against a $150 million budget.

Den Of Thieves 2: Pantera took an expected hit in its second weekend. The action sequel rang up $7.8 million over four days and $6.6 million over three, down 56% from last weekend’s #1 start. That’s a higher drop than the first movie, which was off 43% in its sophomore frame.

The film is still not in bad shape though. As it stands, it has $27.3 million domestically and $32.4 million worldwide against a $40 million budget with several international markets left to open. It should be able to hit $40 million in the US.

Nosferatu continues to deliver as it spooked up $5.1 million through Monday. The three-day total was $4.3 million, down 38%. Robert Eggers’ film is now at $90.2 million domestically and $156.4 million worldwide, quite profitable against a $50 million budget with a $100 million US total still likely.

A Complete Unknown added $4.6 million to its coffers through Monday and $3.8 million through Sunday, down 26% in like-to-like comparison to last weekend. The Bob Dylan biopic has now $58.4 million and is closing in on a $70 million final take with international openings still ahead of it. It should be okay (depending on the overseas grosses of course) against a $70 million budget.

Wicked grossed $4.6 million over the four-day weekend and $3.6 million over three, down 31% from last weekend. The musical has $465.5 million stateside and $709.7 million worldwide against a $145 million budget. The film Is likely for around $475 million and is a megahit.

A24’s Babygirl hung in the top 10 for one more frame with $2.5 million through Monday and $2 million through Sunday (down 34%). The erotic drama has $25.8 million domestically and $31.1 million worldwide with a likely $30 million US total. The budget was $20 million.

Next weekend should see a new #1 as Lionsgate tries for another action-thriller hit with Flight Risk, which is taking aim at around $10 million. Angel Studios’ latest film Brave the Dark is looking at a mid-single digits start, while the Steven Soderbergh ghost film Presence should also come up below $10 million

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Four-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Mufasa: The Lion King – $15.5 million ($209.8 million total, $592 million WW)
2. One Of Them Days – $14 million ($14 million total, $14 million WW)
3. Wolf Man – $12 million ($12 million total, $16.8 million WW)
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 – $11 million ($218.9 million total, $422.4 million WW)
5. Moana 2 – $8.4 million ($445.1 million total, $1.01 billion WW)
6. Den of Thieves: Pantera – $7.8 million ($27.3 million total, $32.4 million WW)
7. Nosferatu – $5.1 million ($90.2 million total, $156.4 million WW)
8. A Complete Unknown – $4.6 million ($58.4 million total, $58.4 million WW)
9. Wicked – $4.6 million ($465.5 million total, $709.7 million WW)
10. Babygirl – $2.5 million ($25.8 million total, $31.1 million WW)