411 Box Office Report: Avatar: Fire & Ash Leads Crowded Weekend With $88 Million

It was a busy weekend at the box office, with Avatar: Fire & Ash leading the way. James Cameron’s third entry in his blockbuster franchise scored an $88 million start for the frame to claim #1. That is a bit below the $95 million to $100 million start that was hoped for coming into the frame, though still a decent-enough opening.

Fire & Ash scored behind the $134.1 million opening of Avatar: The Way Of Water in December of 2022. However, it was better than the $77 million start for the first Avatar in 2009. It’s not the best opening in the world, but there are reasons Disney isn’t too worried at this point.

Fire & Ash was never expected to hit Way Of Water levels. That film was looked at as a way to reinvigorate the box office as it continued its recovery from COVID, and Disney put out all the stops for it. Fire & Ash had the weight of the Mouse House’s marketing team behind it in full effect, but threequels often tend to dip even when the sequel opened huge. In addition, Fire & Ash is not as beloved as the first two films are. It scored a mildly positive 68% aggregated average on Rotten Tomatoes with critics. Compare that to Way of Water’s 76% and the first film’s 81% Cameron didn’t help matters when he suggested in recent interviews that he’s ready to tell “other stories.” That gave the perception, fair or not, that even Cameron is tired of the franchise.

Audience scores are still strong for it, though. Fire & Ash has a 91% RT audience rating and an A CinemaScore. And Disney is less concerned about opening weekend than the long game. The first two films had incredible box office legs, in part but not just because of the holiday window. Fire & Ash is unlikely to hit the 5.1 or 10.2 multiples of the first two films, but it should perform well enough. Add in a $257 million overseas start for a $345.2 million worldwide total, and the film is doing well enough. It should close out domestically around $350 million or so, and overseas numbers will make it profitable even with a massive $400 million budget.

Coming in at #2 was David. The animated take on the biblical figure broke out with a $22 million opening weekend. That makes it the highest star in the faith-based studio’s history, topping The Sound Of Freedom which started with $19.6 million. The opening is also the top animated faith-based start of all time.

David always looked likely to be a breakout hit. The studio already found animated success with The King Of Kings, which grossed $60.3 million domestically and $80 million worldwide earlier this year. This is the studio’s strategy – survive on minor successes like The Last Rodeo throughout the year and hit on a couple major successes.

Critics are giving David decent enough marks for the genre at a 67% RT aggregate, and audiences as usual love it with a 98% RT audience rating and an A CinemaScore. These films always do well with audience scores because they smartly play to their demographics.

David should do quite well throughout the holiday season. Often faith-based movies are front-loaded, but this should play into the season well enough that it can quite possibly top $80 million unless it falls faster than expected. That will make it a huge hit for the studio.

Paul Feig’s The Housemaid came in at a very respectable #3 with $19 million. That’s more or less where it was expected to land. The psychosexual thriller rode its 1990s vibes to a solid performance for Lionsgate.

There were some predicting that this film would fail because of the presence of Sydney Sweeney, but the moratorium on her career has always been premature. Her critics pointed to the failure of Americana and Christy as evidence that audiences were tuning her out over her jean ads controversy. Those films were always independent movies with niche audiences and play. It The Rock couldn’t turn The Smashing Machine into a box office success, Sweeney wasn’t going to do it with Christy. Audiences just don’t care about controversies and nearly every time a film falls short, there are much easier explanations than “but the actor’s name trended on Twitter for a few days.”

Anyway, I digress. The Housemaid has earned solid reviews from critics (75% on RT) and good audience marks with a 93% RT audience rating and a B CinemaScore. Those helped it during the weekend. The Housemaid had a $35 million budget and barring something unexpected, it should make that back. Domestically, the film should land north of $50 million. International numbers will eventually help it hit the black.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants finished off the top four newbies with $16 million. That’s slightly on the low end of what was expected, but not bad news by any stretch. The animated sequel found strong competition between David and Zootopia 2 for the family crowd.

SpongeBob performed weaker than the two previous non-COVID entries in 2015’s Sponge Out of Water and the 2004 eponymous movie. They started at $55.4 million and $32 million, respectively. But again, this is looking at the long play with the holiday corridor. Critics love it at 88%, and audiences like it okay with an A- CinemaScore and a 77% RT audience rating. Expect this one to leg out well and perhaps top $75 million, more than enough for profit once foreign numbers come in. The budget was reportedly around $64 million.

Zootopia 2 held up well considering all the new competition, down 44% in its third weekend to $14.5 million. The Disney Animation sequel is now at $282.8 million domestically and a huge $1.273 billion worldwide. The final domestic number still looks likely for around $340 million or more, and it’s a massive hit against a $150 million budget.

Five Nights At Freddy’s 2 keeps falling, slipping 63% to $7.3 million in its third weekend. None of this is a surprise. That said, it is in a better place legs-wise than the original. It has already more or less reached the first film’s multiple from its opening weekend at a 1.7 and is doing fine overseas. It has $108.9 million in the US and $201.8 million worldwide against a $51 million budget. FNAF 2 should be able to hit close to $125 million, perhaps more, and is a hit.

Wicked: For Good brought in $4.3 million, down 50% from last weekend. The sequel now has $320.5 million stateside and $484.2 million worldwide. It’s a big hit, even if not as big as audiences expected. It is still on target for $340 million or so by the end of its domestic run.

Dhurandhar continues to hang in there, defying expectations for an Indian film once again. The crime drama had the best hold in the top 10, down just 28% to 2.5 million. The movie now has $12.4 million domestically and an impressive $89.9 million worldwide against a reported $15 million budget. Yash Raj Films has a big hit here.

Coming in very impressively at #9 was Marty Supreme. A24’s sports drama took in $875,000, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that was from just six theaters nationwide. That’s the best limited opening of the year and the best per-screen average of the year.

Marty Supreme is directed by Josh Safdie, whose brother Benny directed The Smashing Machine. Both films are from A24 and right now, Timothee Chalamet is virtually assured of defeating The Rock. Critics love the film with a 95% RT critic aggregate, and A24 will be platforming it up for an Oscar run. No easy way to tell how well it performs, but it should be in fine shape. We’ll know more when it expands.

Finally, Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet moved back into the top 10. The period drama brought in $850,000 to bring its total to $8.8 million. That’s solid enough and it will get an Oscar boost soon, so it should make it to at least $15 million.

The box office continues to get crowded next weekend, but Avatar will continue to reign. Its competition is the meta-comedy take on Anaconda, targeting around $12 million to $15 million. Marty Supreme goes wide and could do similar numbers to Anaconda. And Focus Features’ Song Sung Blue is looking at $8 million to $12 million.

Box Office Top Ten (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash – $88 million ($88 million total, $345 million WW)
2. David – $22 million ($22 million total, $22 million WW)
3. The Housemaid – $19 million ($19 million total, $19 million WW)
4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants – $16 million ($16 million total, $16 million WW)
5. Zootopia 2 – $14.5 million ($282 million total, $1.273 billion WW)
6. Five Nights At Freddy’s 2 – $7.3 million ($108.9 million total, $201.8 million WW)
7. Wicked: For Good – $4.3 million ($320.5 million total, $484.2 million WW)
8. Dhurandhar – $2.5 million ($12.4 million total, $56.7 million WW)
9. Marty Supreme – $875,000 ($875,000 total, $875,000 WW)
10. Hamnet – $850,000 ($8.8 million total, $8.8 million WW)