411 Box Office Report: The Meg Knocks Mission: Impossible – Fallout Out Of #1

The Meg delivered well above expectations in its opening weekend, knocking Mission: Impossible – Fallout out of the top spot as a result. The Jason Statham-starring action-thriller scored $44.5 million in its opening weekend, massively overperforming in a weekend where it was predicted to open in the low $20 million range. Needless to say, that’s pretty impressive. The film is easily the best opening for a movie that Statham toplined on its own, the previous high being The Transporter 2 in 2005. It’s also the best opening for a shark thriller ever, even if Jaws is adjusted for inflation.

The reasons for this are many, but it more or less boils down to the fact that the film used savvy marketing to take advantage of the late summer months. The Meg was positioned by Warner Bros. in ads as the last summer blockbuster, and it brought people into the theaters. While critic reviews have been lukewarm on the whole with a 49% Rotten Tomatoes average (and average rating of 5.5/10), audience were clearly charmed by the film. The CinemaScore came in at a B+, which is on par with 2016’s The Shallows and above last year’s 47 Meters Down (which earned a C).

Even with the massive opening, there’s some question of whether the film will ultimately be profitable. The movie was expensive, with the budget estimated at $130 million with another $140 million in marketing. Thanks to the fact that the film’s co-production status with China Gravity, the studio will get a higher cut of the Chinese box office than the approximately 25% most Hollywood movies. Thus, it is believed that a $400 million worldwide take will be enough to get it to profit. As it stands, the movie is at $141.5 million thanks to a $97 million start in forty-two territories (including $50 million in China). With more markets left to open, the foreign grosses should be able to push this one to profitability. Domestically, a $120 million final gross is very doable.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout lost the top spot but still performed well with $20 million, off just 43% from its second weekend. The latest entry in the spy action franchise is now up to $162 million domestically and $437.6 million worldwide, both strong numbers as it continues to pace ahead of its predecessors. Fallout is expected at this point to end its box office run in the $210 range or so, which will make it nicely profitable even with the $178 million budget plus marketing.

In its second weekend, Christopher Robin dropped 49% to bring in $12.4 million. That’s a bigger drop than Disney was likely hoping for, though it’s not a horrifically bad one. The Winnie the Pooh-branded movie is now sitting at $50 million domestically and $62.1 million worldwide. It is in twenty-five overseas markets and will continue to expand in coming weeks. The film has a ways to go before it hits a profit margin thanks to its $75 million budget, and looks to close out with about $75 million to $80 million domestically.

Horror came in at #4 this weekend, as Slender Man slightly overperformed with an $11.3 million start. Most expectations had it in the $8 million to $10 million range, so this is an encouraging sign for the film. Slender Man capitalized on the creepypasta meme effectively enough, though it was not without some controversy. A theater chain in Wisconsin decided not to screen the film due to the high-profile real-life case where two girls tried to kill a classmate in 2014 to try and summon the titular entity. But that very controversy has also helped to push the film’s profile, which may have helped its overperformance.

Critics hated Slender Man, giving the horror film a 15% Rotten Tomatoes average, but horror films are among the most critic-proof movies out there. Less encouraging is the audience reaction. The CinemaScore was a lousy D, which isn’t even good for the traditionally low-scoring horror genre. Slender Man looks likely to make a quick exit from the top ten and $30 million is probably its upper ceiling. On a $10 million budget, it will probably break even or even bring in a small profit for Screen Gems.

Spike Lee’s latest film, BlacKkKlansman, opened at #5 with a very solid $10.8 million. That’s right around where it was expected to do. The drama, which is based on a true story of an African-American detective who infiltrated the Ku Klux Klan, rode a wave of critical acclaim (97% on Rotten Tomatoes) and plenty of pre-release hype. The start is the best for a Spike Lee film since 2006’s Inside Man grossed $29 million in its first weekend.

BlacKkKlansman is also scoring very well with audiences, with an A- CinemaScore. That’s going to help this film gain momentum throughout the month, and it could make it as far as $45 million if it manages to weather the relatively weak month well. The film opened in a smattering of markets overseas for $400,000, bringing its worldwide total to $11.2 million. It won’t likely play incredibly well overseas, but should be profitable on a $15 million budget thanks to a moderate marketing spend.

Action-comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me held on okay in its second weekend, off 46% to $6.6 million. The Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon film is outperforming where word of mouth indicated it might land for the weekend after last weekend’s disappointing start. It has $24.6 million domestically and $26.3 million worldwide and should be able to make it to around $35 million to $40 million in the US. It’s still likely a money loser though, with the budget at $40 million.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was down an impressive 36% in its fourth weekend with $5.8 million. The musical rom-com is now up to $103.8 million domestically and $280.5 million worldwide and is looking to be in good shape. It still won’t beat out the original film, but should hit around $120 million domestically and is a profit on a $75 million budget.

The Equalizer 2 was off 37% in its fourth weekend, bringing in $5.5 million. The action-thriller sequel currently sits at $89.6 million domestically and $99.8 million worldwide in sixteen overseas markets so far. It should end at around $110 million and will make Sony a profit from its $62 million budget.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation slipped 37% in its fifth weekend with $5.1 million. The animated film is up to $146.9 million domestically and $378.3 million worldwide, and is aiming for about $158 million or so in the US. That would put it right between the second film ($169.7 million) and the first ($148.3 million). The budget was $80 million.

Ant-Man & The Wasp closed out the top ten with $4 million, down 36% in its sixth weekend. The MCU sequel now stands at $203.5 million domestically and $448.9 million worldwide. At this point, the movie looks likely to finish off with around $212 million domestically and will be another profitable MCU film on its $162 million budget.

Next weekend will likely see The Meg hold onto #1 as action film Mile 22 and rom-com Crazy Rich Asians fight for #2. Both films are expected to open in the mid-to-high teens, though the latter has been gaining a lot of momentum thanks to pre-release buzz. Also opening next weekend is historical drama Alpha, which should start under $10 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Meg – $44.5 million ($44.5 million total)
2. Mission: Impossible – Fallout – $20 million ($162 million total)
3. Christopher Robin – $12.4 million ($50 million total)
4. Slender Man – $11.3 million ($11.3 million total)
5. BlacKkKlansman – $10.8 million ($10.8 million total)
6. The Spy Who Dumped Me – $6.6 million ($24.6 million total)
7. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! – $5.8 million ($103.8 million total)
8. The Equalizer 2 – $5.5 million ($89.6 million total)
9. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation – $5.1 million ($146.9 million total)
10. Ant-Man & The Wasp – $4 million ($203.5 million total)