411 Box Office Report: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 Conquers The Weekend

Tom Cruise took over the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 missed projections but still easily claimed #1. The seventh film in the action blockbuster franchise brought in $56.2 million for the three-day weekend, below the $70 million expected three-day take. It ranks as the third-highest three-day opening of the franchise (behind Mission: Impossible Fallout’s $61.2 million start and Mission: Impossible 2’s $57.8 million). That said, it is still the best five-stay start of the franchise, having opened on Wednesday and reached $85.5 million.

The Mission: Impossible franchise has become a reliable box office performer for Paramount; though it never opens with the kind of eye-popping numbers that MCU films or the like start with, they’ve always delivered – particularly internationally. Expectations were high for Dead Reckoning Part 1 for several reasons. For one, the hype around it was very high; it has some of the best reviews of the franchise at a 96% aggregated Rotten Tomatoes score, topped only by Mission: Impossible – Fallout at 97%.

Perhaps the more important reason that expectations were high falls not on the films’ shoulders, but the box office as a whole which has seen a number of notable disappointments or outright flops including The Flash, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Many were hoping Cruise could work the same magic that he did with Top Gun: Maverick, but that film was a once-in-a-generation situation.

While Dead Reckoning Part 1’s start isn’t a flop by any means, it is lower than analysts expected, and Paramount has to be somewhat concerned given the budget. The film is another that cost in the $300 million range ($290 million in this case), which means at this point it will have to rely on a combination international grosses and very good box office legs to reach profit. Fortunately, both should be in play; Dead Reckoning Part 1 is off to a great start overseas with $155 million to bring its total to $235.4 million through Saturday, and audience word of mouth has been stellar (94% RT audience rating, A CinemaScore). The last couple of Mission: Impossible films have been able to garner a 3.5 multiple of their opening weekends, which means that Dead Reckoning Part 1 should be able to get to around $200 million domestic. If the overseas numbers deliver, then it should still be profitable. That said, it should be the latest in a long example of warnings to the studios about oversized budgets.

While Dead Reckoning Part 1 took the weekend, the other big star of the box office this weekend did something unprecedented – it significantly topped its numbers from its opening weekend. That’s Sound of Freedom , which was up an astounding 37% from last weekend’s start to gross $27 million. That the first time a wide release film has jumped over 35% in its second weekend outside of holiday weekends and speaks to the efforts Angel Studios has made promoting the Jim Cavaziel-led thriller.

At this point, Sound of Freedom has grossed an extremely impressive $85.5 million, all domestically, making it a massive hit against a $14.5 million budget. It seems likely that it will drop off next weekend but in truth all bets are off here. $120 million seems to be an easy goal for it to reach and perhaps even further, depending on how much more attention it brings in in the following weeks.

Insidious: The Red Door slipped to #3 in its second weekend with $13 million. That’s an expected drop of 61% from the previous weekend, putting it smack dab in the middle of the horror franchise for second weekend holds ahead of the second and third film’s 68% and 66%, and behind The Last Key’s 58% and the first film’s 29%. The Last Door has totaled $58.1 million domestically and $122.6 million worldwide, making it a nice hit against a $16 million budget. Domestically it is still on par for around $75 million.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was down 56% in its third weekend with $12 million. The final film in the franchise now has $145.4 million domestically and $302.4 million worldwide, big numbers but not big enough to counteract a $300 million budget. The film is going to be a money loser and is still looking at around $165 million for its final domestic gross.

Elemental is proving to be much more resilient than people expected as it fights to minimize its losses. The Pixar film was down just 13% in its fifth weekend to bring in $8.7 million. The animated film has now grossed $125.3 million domestically and $311.7 million worldwide; it is still a money loser due to its $200 million budget but it’s not nearly as bad as people initially feared. It is looking on par to gross around $150 million in the US.

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse slipped 25% in its seventh weekend to gross $6.1 million. That brings the animated film to a summer-best $368.8 million domestically and $663.5 million worldwide, and it’s looking at around $380 million or more in US. The budget was only $100 million, making this a huge hit.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts may not be a hit, but it’s hanging in there week to week as it was down just 33% in its sixth weekend with $3.4 million. The action sequel is now up to $152.8 million domestically and $421 million worldwide against a $195 million budget. The marketing budget is keeping this one from profit but it’s going to close out with around $160 million stateside.

No Hard Feelings was down 39% in its fourth weekend to bring in $3.3 million. That’s another solid hold for the comedy, which has now grossed $46.6 million domestically and $77.8 million worldwide to date. The $45 million budget is high for a comedy, but this one should still be minorly profitable with a final domestic gross around $54 million.

Joy Ride did not hold on well after its lower-than-expected start. The R-rated comedy was off 56% in its second weekend, bringing in $2.6 million. We don’t know the budget on this one but it is an overall disappointment with $10.6 million domestically and $11 million worldwide despite strong reviews. The final domestic gross should be around $15 million.

The Little Mermaid slipped 36% in its eighth weekend to $2.4 million. The live-action adaptation now stands at $293.9 million domestically and $546.7 million worldwide. It should hit $300 million domestically and won’t lose money, even if it is a disappointment for Disney

Next weekend is the box office battle of the summer as Barbie and Oppenheimer square off. The Greta Gerwig comedy is expected to start with around $120 million or higher, while Christopher Nolan’s thriller is looking at $50 million to $55 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 – $56.2 million ($80 million total, $235 million WW)
2. Sound Of Freedom – $27 million ($85.5 million domestically, $85.5 million WW)
3. Insidious: The Red Door – $13 million ($58.1 million domestically, $122.6 million WW)
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny – $12 million ($145.4 million total, $302.4 million WW)
5. Elemental – $8.7 million ($125.3 million total, $311.7 million WW)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – $6.1 million ($368.8 million total, $664.5 million WW)
7. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts – $3.4 million ($152.8 million total, $421 million WW)
8. No Hard Feelings – $3.3 million ($46.6 million total, $77.6 million WW)
9. Joy Ride – $2.6 million ($10.6 million domestically, $11 million WW)
10. The Little Mermaid – $2.4 million ($293.9 million total, $546.7 million WW)