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411 Box Office Report: No Time to Die Leads Way With $56 Million Opening

October 10, 2021 | Posted by Jeremy Thomas
NO TIME TO DIE

Daniel Craig ended his run as 007 with a #1 box office start as No Time to Die won the weekend. The 25th James Bond film grossed $56 million in its domestic opening, coming in around where most rational analysts predicted it to do coming into the weekend. There were some wild predictions suggesting that the film could top $100 million, but those were never based in reality. No Time To Die represents the lowest start for a Bond film of Craig’s tenure, but is the fifth-highest opening of the pandemic-hobbled year that was 2021.

There may be some pontificating on how No Time to Die is a failure, but pay that no heed. This is a decent start for the movie, which targets an older moviegoing crowd than the MCU or Fast franchise. And older moviegoers have been the most hesitant to return to theaters. This was always the true expected opening window for the film, and United Artists/MGM are perfectly happy with where it landed. Even if this wasn’t released during a pandemic, you have to remember that the Bond franchise has never broken records at the box office. No Time to Die came into the weekend with some strong hype that was bolstered by good reviews; review aggregate site Rotten Tomatoes has it at an 84% positive, and moviegoers enjoyed it at an A- CinemaScore which is on par with Spectre and Casino Royale.

If there’s anything for the studio to be concerned about, it would be the day to day hold. No Time to Die dropped 22% on Saturday, more than your average Bond film, and then eased 20% in Sunday projections. We’ll have to see how that factors in to the film’s overall box office legs, but one imagines a 3.0 multiple as being entirely achievable. That would put it in the $160 million domestic range, which seems very doable and something the studio will be happy with — especially since it has already grossed $257.3 million overseas (for a $313.3 million worldwide cume to date). With a $250 million production budget, it’s not in the black yet but it will get there.

No Time to Die did take a bite out of Marvel and Sony’s symbiotes, as Venom: Let There Be Carnage slipped 64% in its second weekend to $32 million. That is an expected result, considering how much the film overperformed last weekend. The Venom sequel has now grossed $141.7 million domestically and $185.6 million worldwide, with its international rollout limited to just 13 markets so far (it begins expanding next weekend). Let There Be Carnage is still on par for at least $220 million domestically and perhaps more, making it a big hit against its $110 million budget.

Addams Family 2 scared up $10 million in second weekend, down 42% from last weekend’s total. That’s a solid hold for a film that is also available on digital through online marketplaces. The animated comedy has grossed $31.1 million domestically and $35.7 million worldwide, with $55 million to $60 million still its ultimate goal in the States. Its budget isn’t yet known.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings continues to hang in there, down 31% in its sixth weekend with $4.2 million. The MCU film has now grossed $212.5 million domestically and $401.6 million worldwide, surpassing Thor: The Dark World’s domestic gross and primmed to top Ant-Man and the Wasp’s $216.6 million shortly. It is looking likely to close out around $225 million or so and is a smash for Marvel against a $150 million production budget.

The Many Saints of Newark took the expected heavy fall in its second frame, off 69% to $1.5 million. The Sopranos prequel suffered a hit that has been traditional of the HBO Max day-and-date releases, as audiences who don’t rush out to see it in theaters first weekend are more likely to view at home. Many Saints is now at $7.4 million domestically and $10.3 million worldwide. It won’t make back its $50 million budget in theaters ($12 million is the likely domestic end), but considering it is reportedly responsible for a big boost in HBO Max viewing WarnerMedia will consider it a success.

Free Guy was down 43% in its ninth weekend, bringing in $1.3 million. The video game-inspired action-comedy is now up to $119.7 million domestically and a great $322.6 million worldwide, hugely profitable against a $100 million budget. It should be able to end its run north of $125 million.

A24’s latest film came in at #7 in the drama Lamb, which took in $1 million. The Noomi Rapace-starring horror-tinged drama about a couple who raise a strange sheep born in their barn as their own delivered decently, trading largely on an attention-getting trailer and A24’s reputation of delivering a particular brand of horror. The film hit the highest opening ever for an Icelandic film in the domestic market, thanks to strong reviews (84% on RT) and a lot of buzz coming out of the Cannes Film Festival in July.

The question here is, how high can Lamb climb? Honestly, that depends on how A24 handles the platform release. The movie started off in 583 theaters, and that middle range of limited release doesn’t always lead to being expanded — especially considering the crowded slate of films coming in the next few weeks. There’s no word on Lamb’s budget, but it should be able to be successful according to A24’s business model, even if it won’t be the breakout smash that films like Hereditary and The Witch were.

Dear Evan Hansen is racing its way out of the top 10, as it slipped another 60% in its third weekend to $1 million. The Broadway musical adaptation now has $13.7 million and is unlikely pass $20 million in the US. With a $27 million production cost plus a heavy marketing campaign, Evan Hanson is a flop.

Candyman fell 45% in its seventh weekend with $700,000. The Nia DaCosta-directed horror sequel film has now tallied $60.1 million domestically and $76.3 million worldwide against a $25 million budget, making it a hit for Universal. The film is aiming for around $65 million as its endgame.

Jungle Cruise ends its run in the top 10 next weekend, as it slipped 70% this frame to close out the top 10 with $214,000. The adventure film has already made its mark though, having grossed $116.5 million domestically and $206.9 million worldwide, plus the amount its made on Disney+ Premier Access. Even with a $200 million budget, this is profitable once all profit avenues are tallied.

Next weekend will see likely see Michael Meyers invade as Halloween Kills arrives. Even with a day-and-date release on Peacock, the film is expected to do around $40 million domestically. Meanwhile, Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel should start off in the low to mid teens.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. No Time to Die – $56 million ($56 million total)
2. Venom: Let There Be Carnage – $32 million ($141.7 million total)
3. The Addams Family 2 – $10 million ($31.1 million total)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – $4.2 million ($212.5 million total)
5. The Many Saints of Newark – $1.5 million ($7.4 million total)
6. Free Guy – $1.3 million ($119.7 million total)
7. Lamb – $1 million ($1 million total)
8. Dear Evan Hansen – $1 million ($13.7 million total)
9. Candyman – $700,000 ($60.1 million total)
10. Jungle Cruise – $214,000 ($116.5 million total)