411 Box Office Report: The Nun II Retains Top Spot As Expend4bles Bombs

The Nun II maintained its hold at the top of the box office this weekend, thanks to The Expend4bles opening with a dull thud. The latest film in the Conjuring Universe spent a third week atop the box office with $8.4 million. That’s a drop of 42% from last weekend’s number as the sequel continues to rake in money for Warner Bros. The film now has $69.2 million domestically and $204.2 million worldwide, all against a $38.5 million budget. The film is now looking likely to close in the $85 million to $90 million range.

The big news of the box office was just how disastrously Expend4bles opened. The fourth film in the action series grossed just $8.3 million to start off, well below the mid-teens number that was expected going into the weekend. It’s barely over half the $15.9 million that The Expendables 3 opened to in August of 2014, and a far cry from the openings of The Expendables ($34.8 million in 2010) and The Expendables 2 ($28.6 million in 2012).

Now to be clear, it’s not just that the film opened low. No one expected the fourth film in this series to do anything close to the numbers the first two did. The cost is the problem. Despite the constant diminishing returns of this franchise, the budget has remained the same and Expend4bles cost $100 million to produce, plus marketing costs. There’s no happy news here; it goes without saying that $8.3 million doesn’t cut it for a film with a nine-figure budget. (Lionsgate, who distributed the film in the UK and US, is in for a much lower but still not great $20 million on the budget and $20 million in marketing.)

So why did this open so low? Let us count the ways. First off, it’s been almost 10 years since the last Expendables film, and even that flick showed quite clearly how long in the tooth the franchise had become. This franchise got buzz because it was all the 1980s and 1990s action stars squaring off against each other. Most of those stars have since moved on and the fourth film resorted to supplementing mainstays Sylvester Stallone and Jason Statham with the action credentials of 50 Cent and Megan Fox.

Second, the film is garnering abysmal reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes aggregated score is at a dismal 16%, a new franchise low. And the audience reaction is a weak 69% on RT and a B- on CinemaScore. That means no one wanted this film and most people who went to see it don’t like it. That’s bad for word of mouth, which is something this film will desperately need to stem the money hemorrhage.

Now, the previous films all made most of their money overseas. (By example, Expendables 3 grossed just $39.3 million domestically but $209.5 million worldwide.) Can the overseas numbers save this one? Not likely. Global numbers aren’t in yet, but the film opened last weekend in China – a reliable territory for the franchise – with just $10.7 million. And remember, studios get about 25% of the gross from China unless it’s co-produced with a Chinese studio. There could always be a shocker here on the other overseas territories, but it’s not likely. The domestic gross isn’t likely to go much higher than $20 million, putting a near-certain end to this franchise.

A Haunting In Venice had an expected fall, down 56% in its second weekend to $6.3 million. Kenneth Branagh’s latest Hercule Poirot film is now up to $25.4 million domestically and $71.6 million worldwide, still on a long road toward profit against a $60 million budget plus marketing. It can get there if the overseas grosses continue to come in, but its domestic total still looks likely to to end in the $40 million to $45 million range.

The Equalizer 3 was off 35% in its fourth weekend to $4.7 million. The Denzel Washington flick is now at $81.3 million domestically and $148.7 million worldwide, targeting a small amount of profit against its $70 million production budget. The film’s probably stateside final is around $90 million.

Barbie remains the big film that can, as it was down just 16% in its tenth weekend with $3.2 million. The comedy is now at $630.5 million domestically and $1.428 billion worldwide. It now sits as the #11 domestiuc grosser of all time and is likely to end its run at around $638 million domestically, a huge hit against its $128 million budget.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 was down 37% in its third weekend to take in $3 million. The third film in the romcom series now has $23.8 million domestically and $29.3 million worldwide, a shadow of the previous two entries. There’s still no word on its budget but it still looks likely to end its stateside run at about $30 million or so.

Opening at #7 was NEON’s It Lives Inside. The horror film took in $2.6 million, slightly above the $2.5 million that NEON’s Infinity Pool opened at in January. It Lives Inside is doing decent enough business, and should top Infinity Pool’s $5 million domestic total. No word on the film’s budget, but its profit margin will be determined by home video revenue.

Sony’s Dumb Money began a limited expansion after a very small opening last weekend. The film about the GameStop stock short took in $2.5 million on the back of very good reviews (an 84% RT aggregated score), bringing its domestic total to $2.8 million. It will be expanding wider this coming weekend and that’s when the money will start coming in more significantly. No word on the budget yet.

Blue Beetle was down 28% in its sixth weekend to $1.8 million. The DCEU film reached $69.8 million domestically and $122.9 million worldwide, still a money loser against his $120 million budget and marketing. It still seems likely to close out its US run with about $73 million.

Oppenheimer closed out the top 10 with $1.6 million, off 22% from last weekend. The Christopher Nolan-directed biopic has reached $321.2 million domestically and $925.9 million worldwide, aiming for a $325 million domestic final gross. It’s a major hit for Universal against a $100 million budget.

Next weekend should finally see a new #1 with a crowded new release schedule. Gareth Edwards’ sci-fi action thriller The Creator has the edge with an expected $18 million to $20 million start, while PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie is looking at a mid-teens opening. Saw X is hoping for the low to mid-teens, while Dumb Money’s expansion should hit the $8 million to $10 million

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. The Nun II – $8.4 million ($69.2 million total, $204.2 million WW)
2. The Expend4bles – $8.3 million ($8.3 million total, $19 million WW)
3. A Haunting In Venice – $6.3 million ($25.4 million total, $71.6 million WW)
4. The Equalizer 3 – $4.7 million ($81.3 million total, $148.7 million WW)
5. Barbie – $3.2 million ($630.5 million total, $1.428 billion WW)
6. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 – $3 million ($23.8 million total, $29.3 million WW)
7. It Lives Inside – $2.6 million ($2.6 million total, $2.6 million WW)
8. Dumb Money – $2.5 million ($2.8 million total, $2.8 million WW)
9. Blue Beetle – $1.8 million ($69.8 million total, $122.9 million WW)
10. Oppenheimer – $1.6 million ($321.2 million total, $925.9 million WW)