411 Box Office Report: Onward Tops Box Office With $40 Million Opening

Pixar’s latest film got off to only a semi-magical start, as Onward ruled the box office with a start on the low end of expectations. The animated fantasy-adventure brought in $40 million in its opening weekend, which toed the bottom of industry expectations of $40 million to $45 million heading into the weekend. That start is the lowest for a Pixar film since The Good Dinosaur opened to $39.2 million back in November of 2015 and is a bit below the starts of the studio’s last non-sequel Coco, which opened to $50.8 million in November of 2017.

While that all sounds doom and gloom-y, it’s not an entirely unexpected start and appears to be around where Disney and Pixar were targeting. While most recent Pixar films have had blockbuster starts, it’s important to remember that they’ve all been sequels of beloved franchises like The Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4, and Finding Dory. Launching an original IP is difficult for any studio, and Onward leaned into that difficulty with an offbeat story set in a modern take on a fantasy land. Critics very much enjoyed the film with an 86% consensus on Rotten Tomatoes, though it must be noted that the bar is very high on Pixar still with the last three films all coming in over 90%. (Before than was Cars 3 at 70%.) The film is doing pretty well with audiences too, coming in at an A- CinemaScore.

There’s a lot of debate about how much affect the coronavirus situation may be having on box office, but that likely wasn’t a factor in Onward’s domestic start. Box office as a whole was $100.8 million, which is actually up slightly from last weekend. Mostly, this film is only viewed as a disappointment in terms of comparison to other Pixar box office hits, and you honestly can’t compare this with Incredibles 2. The fact that it’s opening in March and not a prime movie season like the summer or holidays also played a factor.

Now in terms of international numbers, there’s little doubt that the coronavirus scare has had an affect. Onward brought in $28 million from 47 markets, well below expectations. That’s in the face of sweeping closings of theaters of the kind that have caused MGM to delay No Time to Die. Onward’s budget isn’t yet known, but Pixar hasn’t had a film budgeted below $175 million since 2007 so that gives us a solid estimate. If Onward can make its way to $150 million domestically and the eventual reopenings of theaters overseas lets it pick up there, it should be in decent shape.

Coming in at #2 this weekend was The Invisible Man, which was down 46% from its excellent opening weekend with $15.2 million. That’s a pretty good hold for a horror film, especially one that overperformed in its first frame. Audiences are definitely coming out for the Elisabeth Moss-starring reimagining, which has thus far grossed $52.7 million domestically and $98.3 million worldwide. Those are both excellent numbers for a film that cost just $7 million before print and advertising costs. The Invisible Man is still aiming for a gross in the general $100 million range, which makes it a huge hit for Universal.

Ben Affleck’s latest film came in at #3, as sports-themed drama The Way Back grossed $8.5 million. That’s about where the film was expected to do by most. Sure, it’s not Batman V Superman numbers by a long shot but obviously it’s not that kind of film either. The start is below Affleck’s blockbuster and action fare of course, but ranks above the $5.1 million that his last drama Live By Night started off with in January of 2017.

The Way Back is a story of redemption, and obviously from his interviews it was a very personal film for Affleck. That’s resonated with critics and viewers with a 87% RT aggregate score and a decent B+ CinemaScore. Those are good because this film will need legs in order to hit any kind of profit margin. The drama cost $23 million before marketing and overseas numbers will likely be weak with just $640,000 thus far outside of the US for a $9.1 million start. The final US take should be around $25 million to $30 million, which may not be enough for a profit before the film hits home video.

Sonic the Hedgehog came in at #3, down 51% to $8 million. The Paramount adaptation of the SEGA video game is a hit with $140.8 million domestically and $295.6 million worldwide against a budget of $95 million. It’s slowing down a bit but should still make it to $160 million in the states, a great number considering the risk it carried for the studio.

Call of the Wild was off 48% in its third weekend with $7 million. The literary adaptation now stands at $57.5 million domestically and $115 million worldwide, not nearly enough to make back its $125 million budget plus P&A. The domestic number should finish off at about $70 million, and this film should end up losing at least $50 million for 20th Century Studios (and thus Disney).

Emma expanded wide this weekend and leaped into the top 10 as a result. The Anya Taylor-Joy-starring adaptation of Jane Austen’s 1815 novel nailed down $5 million. That’s a decent wide release start for the film, bringing its totals to $6.9 million domestically and $20.9 million worldwide. The film is has been a hit with critics at 84% on RT, though fans are a bit milder to it with a B CinemaScore. The movie should be on its way to profit though and, depending on Focus Features’ expansion plans, should be able to hit at least $15 million domestically if not much more. No word on its budget.

Bad Boys For Life held on strongly again with a drop of just 30% in its eighth weekend. The action sequel scored $3.1 million and now stands at $202 million domestically and $415 million worldwide. Those are obviously great numbers for the film and make it a megahit against its $90 million budget. It will make it to at least $210 million domestically before leaving theaters.

Birds of Prey continues to make its way toward a bit of profit, as it was down 47% in its fifth weekend. The DCEU film added $2.2 million to its coffers, bringing the tallies to $85.6 million domestically and $195.8 million worldwide. Sure, it’s not a massive hit but it won’t be a bomb either. The film cost $80 million and should finish off in the $90 million range in the US.

truTV’s Impractical Jokers: The Movie fell 49%, a very solid number, to $1.8 million in its second weekend. The comedic reality film based on truTV’ series is holding on better than expected, and is up to $8.5 million domestically thus far with an expected $12 million final take. That’s enough to make it profitable against a $3 million budget and minimal marketing.

My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising closed out the top 10 with $1.5 million. On the surface that’s a terrible number, down 74% from last weekend. But anime always suffers serious drops; Dragon Ball Super: Broly fell 69% in its second weekend. Heroes Rising now has $12.7 million domestically and $29 million worldwide, great numbers for the film which should end its US run in the $10 million range.

Next weekend sees a trio of films opening, none of which will challenge Pixar for the top spot. Vin Diesel’s Valiant comic adaptation Bloodshot and controversial thriller The Hunt are both looking for an $8 million to $12 million opening, while faith-based biodrama I Still Believe looks like $10 million to $15 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Onward – $40 million ($40 million total)
2. The Invisible Man – $15.2 million ($52.7 million total)
3. The Way Back – $8.5 million ($8.5 million total)
4. Sonic The Hedgehog – $8 million ($140.8 million total)
5. Call of the Wild – $7 million ($57.5 million total)
6. Emma. – $5 million ($6.9 million total)
7. Bad Boys For Life – $3.1 million ($202 million total)
8. Birds of Prey – $2.2 million ($82.6 million total)
9. Impractical Jokers: The Movie – $1.8 million ($8.5 million total)
10. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising – $1.5 million ($12.7 million total)