411’s TV Renewal Predictions: Agents of SHIELD and Gotham Are Dangerously Close to Ending This Year

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

This past week saw movement in the predictions in a way that hasn’t been since before the holidays. A good portion of that is due to the debut of several midseason shows, which has started in earnest. But we’ll get to those in a minute. First, let’s look at the shows that premiered in fall, and we’re going to start with Gotham. FOX’s Batman prequel series has been holding on moderately well throughout the season, but that may no longer be the case. The show dipped to its series low, a scary 0.6, to put it in potential trouble.

Some shows can potentially live at the 0.6 range, but it must be remembered that Gotham airs during a peak TV time Thursdays at 8 PM. That’s not a timeslot where a number that low is sustainable. Gotham is also past the stripped syndication sweet spot, and while further seasons increase its value, it may not be worth it for FOX to continue. The prediction on that show hasn’t moved off the Bubble yet, as that 0.6 could end up as an anomaly. But for now, it’s definitely something to be concerned by.

FOX has another couple of show that may also have cause for concern in Ghosted and The Resident. The network pulled it from the schedule early this month in order to facilitate the return of Brooklyn Nine-Nine. (It will return later this season.) Ghosted hasn’t had too worrying of ratings, but yanking a show in favor of a lower-rated series is eyebrow-raising, to say the least. As for The Resident, it makes the move to Likely Cancelled this week after posting a 0.8, its second episode below a 0.9. The ratings on the whole don’t look terrible, but a freshman series hitting numbers this low only seven episodes in isn’t a good sign. The overall ratings number is also inflated thanks to the special Sunday premiere after an NFL playoff game; in its regular timeslot, the show has a 0.93 which would be an easily-cancelled show for its first season.

Another show moves to the lower end of the Bubble in Agents of SHIELD. The Marvel Cinematic Universe series had kept its hopes alive with consistent (if low) ratings in the 0.56 – 0.67 range for several weeks. That’s a rough range, but may have been workable for a recognizable brand given a Friday timeslot. But two 0.5 ratings in a row is not good by any measure. The show is only keeping its Bubble status because of the dire state of ABC’s lineup as a whole and the possibility that the network may provide a final season for brand synergy reasons. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop to Likely Cancelled next week, though.

On The CW, there is a “good news/bad news” situation for its Friday night. First is the good; Jane the Virgin appears to be coming back for season five. We mentioned in the last couple of weeks that with The CW expanding their programming to six days next season, there was a place for lower-rated shows to return. Add into that the fact that series star Gina Rodriguez suggested at SXSW that the fifth season would be its last, and it’s tough to see how this one doesn’t return.

Dynasty, however, is pretty well gone. The show had maintained some stability in its move to Friday in its first episode a couple of weeks ago. Last week, the bottom fell out and it hit a 0.1 demo rating. There is no broadcast network and no primetime slot where that is forgivable. Dynasty was already in our Likely Cancelled category, but there was always a bit of a chance that the CW expansion could allow it to come back next season. At this point, the network will almost surely take a chance on a new pilot rather than roll the dice on bringing back a show with that few people watching.

With the fall show updates done, we move onto the new/returning shows. On NBC we have two premieres to look at in Timeless and Rise. The former of those shows was one of the big renewal surprises of all-time when NBC cancelled the series, then changed its mind days later and brought it back. The time travel series came back last week to a sketchy 0.8 and then sunk to a 0.7 this week. That has to have the network rethinking their decision to bring the show back. Timeless’ production studio Sony reportedly bailed the show out with a big deal to get it a second season, but it won’t be able to do the same this year. Meanwhile, Rise debuted with a decidedly “meh” 1.2. That’s not a losable start during the midseason, but it’s too early to say if it will be able to keep those numbers strong enough for a second go.

ABC’s mideason premieres were not inspiring either. Last night saw the debut of the generically-named Deception, a procedural about a crime-solving magician. To give you an idea how tired of a name that is, NBC used it just five years ago for a soapy prodecural that was supposed to be the next Revenge (but wasn’t). Audiences collectively yawned to the tune of a 1.05 demo rating. The show is starting out on the Bubble right now, but it will need strong retention to come back. Meanwhile, For the People doesn’t even have that hope after debuting last week with a 0.8 against Rise and NCIS: New Orleans. Tuesday at 10 PM has been a deathslot for ABC, and it looks likely to claim another victim unless this show sees a sudden boost in numbers.

Finally, CBS had the premiere of Instinct last night, and the best news they can give is that it wasn’t a complete debacle. It wasn’t promising either though, with a 1.0 start. Much like Rise and Deception, Instinct starts on the Bubble will need to retain most of its audience in order to stand much of a chance of returning. But on the plus side, fans of CBS’ other Bubble series like Seal Team, SWAT and Scorpion may have a better chance of seeing their shows return. The old fantasy adage applies here: “I don’t have to outrun the dragon. I just have to outrun you.”

ABC

Renewed:
* The Good Doctor (1.81)
* Modern Family (1.68)
* The Goldbergs (1.52)

Likely Renewal:
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.05)
* American Housewife (1.25)
* Speechless (1.12)
* Black-ish (1.09)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.02)

Bubble:
* Deception (1.05)
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.94)
* Designated Survivor (0.78)
* Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (0.67)
* Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD (0.57)

Likely Cancellation:
* For the People (0.8)
* Marvel’s Inhumans (0.61)

Cancelled:
* The Middle (1.32) – Final season previously announced
* Scandal (1.20) – Final season previously announced
* The Mayor (0.82)
* Once Upon a Time (0.53)
* Ten Days in the Valley (0.35)

Too Early to Call:
* Alex, Inc. (Premieres March 28th)
* The Crossing (Premieres April 2nd)
* For The People (Premieres March 13th)
* Quantico (Premieres April 26th)
* Roseanne (Premieres March 27th)
* Station 19 (Premieres March 29th)
* Splitting Up Together (Premieres March 27th)

CBS

Renewed:
* Big Bang Theory (2.87)
* Young Sheldon (2.33)

Likely Renewal:
* Mom (1.50)
* NCIS (1.44)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.27)
* Bull (1.20)
* Life in Pieces (1.17)
* Man With a Plan (1.05)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.00)
* Criminal Minds (1.00)
* NCIS: New Orleans (0.99)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.95)
* Blue Bloods (0.94)
* Code Black (Premieres April 25th)

Bubble:
* Seal Team (1.06)
* SWAT (1.00)
* Instinct (1.00)
* Superior Donuts (0.94)
* MacGyver (0.86)
* Scorpion (0.83)

Likely Cancellation:
* 9JKL (0.96)
* Living Biblically (0.73)
* Madam Secretary (0.66)

Cancelled:
* Me, Myself & I (1.00)
* Wisdom of the Crowd (0.91)

Too Early to Call:
* Elementary (Premieres April 23rd)

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (3.07)
* Will & Grace (1.57)
* The Good Place (1.14)
* Superstore (1.09)

Likely Renewal:
* Chicago Med (1.34)
* Law & Order: SVU (1.28)
* Chicago PD (1.20)
* Chicago Fire (1.11)
* The Blacklist (0.98)
* Blindspot (0.66)
* Shades of Blue (Premieres Midseason)

Bubble:
* Good Girls (1.27)

Likely Cancellation:
* Law & Order True Crime (1.05)
* The Brave (0.92)
* AP Bio (0.86)
* Timeless (0.75)
* Great News (0.73)
* Champions (0.70)
* Taken (0.47)

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
* Rise (1.30)

FOX

Renewed:
* The Simpsons (1.80)
* 9-1-1 (1.64)
* The Orville (1.25)
* The Gifted (1.01)

Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.92)
* Star (1.35)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.25)
* Family Guy (1.26)
* Lucifer (0.87)

Bubble:
* Ghosted (1.17)
* Lethal Weapon (1.03)
* The X-Files (0.97)
* The Last Man on Earth (0.88)
* Gotham (0.83)
* The Mick (0.74)

Likely Cancellation:
* The Resident (1.17)
* L.A. to Vegas (0.82)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.68)
* The Exorcist (0.41)

Cancelled:
* New Girl (Final season previously announced, premieres April 10th)

Too Early to Call:

The CW

Renewed:

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.85)
* Black Lightning (0.61)
* Supernatural (0.58)
* Supergirl (0.55)
* Riverdale (0.53)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.50)
* Arrow (0.48)
* iZombie (0.29)
* Jane the Virgin (0.25)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.22)

Bubble:

Likely Cancellation:
* Dynasty (0.21)
* Life Sentence (0.21)

Cancelled:
* Valor (0.21)
* The Originals (Final season previously announced, premieres April 20th)

Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres April 24th)