What 1.82 Million WWE Network Subscribers Really Means

Backstory

Here is the deal. I have already posted my WWE WrestleMania 32 review AND my #RawAfterMania review (on another website). Plus, a few days ago, I wrote all about the epic NXT: Takeover Dallas event for 411mania. This Monday night, my next column will be yet another installment of my look at casual fans vs. diehard fans – a VERY interesting look at this past weekend’s WM32 show. Until then though, I figured why not write one more “bonus” column?

Since I am all about numbers and facts backing up business, there is no better topic than the NEW updated WWE Network numbers. Let’s dive in…

Remember When WWE Network Couldn’t Hit One Million Subscribers?

Ah, good times.

All the speculation, all the talk, all the jokes, all the pointing and laughing, all the doubt, all the “hate,” all the early concerns, etc.

Seems so laughable now.

Hey, I plead semi-guilty to some of this as well, but man, you look back at one year ago. WWE Network had just announced they cracked one million subscribers in late January 2015 following the Royal Rumble event, and that was like the biggest shock in the world. Fans at crow (as usual), while the company just kept plugging away – continuing to state that this was a long-term process, and there would be growing pains.

I think, deep down, everybody understood the 2014 losses and budget cuts were just a means to an end. However, that didn’t stop the jokes, the jabs, the cynicism, and all the cries of the WWE Network being a FAILURE(!!!!!) despite only just being launched.

Gotta love hindsight.

Okay, So 1.82 Million Subscribers On April 4th, 2016?!?!

A lot to dissect here.

1. That is the total number. Yes, it is including all of the world and free trials. Therefore, if you are still trying to be a pessimistic jerk and look for the negative, go right ahead and convince yourself this is “bad” news.

2. This is also with a whole bunch of new international markets opening up in earl 2016. Keep in mind in 21014 and 2015 only certain areas had the WWE Network. Again, long-term process. Some folks don’t seem to be able to grasp the concept where you take early losses for a gain down the road. Well, we are now down the road, and the money is pouring in.

3. For those who care, I predicted a 1.5 million figure a week before the numbers were revealed. Hey, taking away the 300,000 or so folks currently on the free trial, that hits the mark!

4. Of course, this is the peak number for all of 2016 and likely early 2017. The next time I expect a higher number or something similar will be 12 months from now after WrestleMania. Not exactly a bold statement. It is like saying the NFL will see its best business for the Super Bowl. Um, yeah. Duh. Thanks for pointing that out.

How Many Will Stick Around Post-WrestleMania Season?

Look, we all know why WWE announced these numbers the morning after WrestleMania 32.

Smart business. Numbers are currently at their peak and are likely not to be near this mark for the rest of 2016. Thus, it is wise to make noise about the WWE Network NOW! let the world know of the 1.82 million subscribers and revel in the great news, and make no mistake folks – it is absolutely great news.

However, even the most positive person in the world knows it is going to drop from here. My guess is WWE does not get near that mark again until the day after WrestleMania 33 – about 12 months from now.

Thus, that begs the question – how many actually do stay subscribed for the rest of 2016?

First off, let’s talk about the 300,000 or so free trial users. Yeah, most of them only signed up because WM was FREE, and it is the one event they will watch all year. No different that the NFL Super Bowl getting over 100 million viewers, but the rest of the games getting nowhere near that number. They tune in for the big finale and don’t care about it otherwise. Simple enough.

Just picking a figure out of the blue, let’s say 200,000 of those 300,000 free trial users stay subscribers. May be a bit more than that using the WWE’s statistics (good luck there!).

However, there is then the pesky “churn” rate that has been eating away at WWE Network subscribers since day one. With no more six month commitment added on, people can come and do as they please each month.

Now, do a large majority of them use back end methods and cheap ways to bypass paying $9.99 per month? No, those are just the usual weasels on the internet who refuse to pay a dime for anything and will illegally steal thanks to fake usernames and accounts…just to avoid paying $9.99.

Like with all things online though, that is the small minority who do not ‘get it’ and never will. The numbers show that the large majority are perfectly content to legally pay the asking fee.

Heck, I will do one step further and look at the 2015 data. Contrary to popular belief, numbers stayed fairly consistent throughout the year. Yes, the WWE Network subscribers peaked after WM31, but after that – it was a decent retention. Despite what some claim, folks are not JUST signing up for Mania and then leaving.

The flip side is if the WWE Network can launch in China or be available to larger populations later in the year, surely the increases will be seen, negating any kind of “churn” that shows up.

Prediction For The Rest Of 2016

Long story short, my prediction is if WWE can stay around the 1.5 million mark for the rest of the year, they should be extremely happy. Continue delivering a top notch NXT product. Keep putting out the rare live specials. As much as they may not be hit or miss, even the Edge and Christian Show, Ride Along, Swerved, and Table For 3 are very important for extra programming during the week that is NOT inside a squared circle.

Oh, and the monthly pay-per-views – advertising them as FREE to new subscribers! During the conference call on Monday, that was made very clear to be sticking around and not going away. As the WWE executive explained, it is working, so why eliminate the successful sales pitch? Netflix offers their free service to new users, Hulu does it, NBA League Pass too. Stone Cold Steve Austin may disagree with WM being a part of that (and I do as well), but if it keeps bringing in new subscribers and hooking them, who am I to argue?

WWE knows exactly what they are doing, and no amount of pointless complaining will change the facts.

Over 1.82 million subscribers…enough said.

What do you think? Is 1.5 million subscribers a reasonable goal for the rest of 2016? Are you surprised at the 1.82 million number considering their 2014 and 2015 growing pains? Let me know below in the comment section!

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