411 Box Office Report: Black Panther Crosses $500 Million For #1 Spot

T’Challa reigned supreme at the box office for a third straight week, as Black Panther crossed the $500 million mark. The Marvel Cinematic Universe blockbuster brought in a stellar $65.7 million in its third frame, scoring the third-best third weekend of all-time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. Panther was off just 41% from last weekend and could, as it has the last two weekends, end up even higher once the actual numbers come in tomorrow.

The tally now brings Black Panther to $501.1 million in just seventeen days. It ranks behind only The Force Awakens (ten days) and Star Wars: The Last Jedi (sixteen days) as the third-fastest to the $500 million mark…and those films had the traditional low drops of the holidays boosting them. The film is now pacing almost $50 million above The Avengers’ $457.7 million at the same time during its run and is on pace to become the highest-grossing MCU film to date without too much difficulty. Overseas it has brought in $396.6 million for a $897.7 million worldwide total thus far. It seems almost a sure thing to top $650 million domestically by the end of its run and could easily climb higher. On a $200 million budget, Marvel has to be exceedingly happy with this one.

As Panther continues to bring in all of the money, two other films tried to make their marks at the box office with mild degrees of success at best. Foremost among the new releases was Red Sparrow, which nailed down a $17 million opening. The Jennifer Lawrence-starring spy thriller performed more or less to the mid-high teen start that analysts were predicting. It’s not a great number for the film, but at least represents a comeback for Lawrence after the divisive mother! disappointed last September with just $7.5 million.

Audiences were clearly more interested in seeing Lawrence in a somewhat more traditional mainstream film than mother!, enough so that they turned out despite a lukewarm critical reception at 51% on Rotten Tomatoes. Attendees liked the film okay but not overwhemlingly, with a B CinemaScore. The film’s biggest challenge was that it just isn’t as action-packed and crowd-pleasing as films like Atomic Blonde or blockbusters like Mission: Impossible, with extreme violence punctuating a quieter, slower tone. It’s doing fine overseas, with $26.6 million in sixty-five markets with some big ones left to go like Russia and France. At this point it should make its way to around $60 million domestically but will need that overseas strength to make money on its $69 million budget plus marketing.

Meanwhile, Bruce Willis’ team-up with Elio Roth fell short of hopes as Death Wish pulled down $13 million. Predictions for the film had it in the same range as Red Sparrow, so this marks the latest underperformer for Roth after The Green Inferno brought in just $3.5 million back in September of 2015. Death Wish was always expected to do much better business than Roth’s usual fare, being a remake of a cult classic and holding a bigger star in Willis. Audiences weren’t biting for this reboot though, especially with marketing that tried to portray the movie as a quippier take on the Charles Bronson franchise.

Death Wish fell far short with critics at just 15% on RT, but Eli Roth’s films never score well with critics. Audiences did like it far better than Roth’s Green Inferno, which had a lousy C- CinemaScore compared to Death Wish’s B+. MGM made this film relatively cheaply with a $30 million budget, but even that may not be enough to get this movie to profit. It has yet to open overseas, but in the US it probably won’t get much above $30 million so it’ll need all the help it can get from other markets for a chance at getting out of the red.

Game Night held solidly in its second weekend, down 37% to $10.7 million. The ensemble R-rated comedy held better than the 40% to 50% drops for other recent adult comedies like Rough Night (41%), The House (45%) and Fist Fight (46%). It is currently sitting nicely at $33.5 million domestically and $49.5 million worldwide, with a likely final domestic gross in the $55 million to $60 million range. Since the foreign numbers are doing okay, it should be a solid success on a $37 million budget.

Peter Rabbit continues to hold well, off 22% in its fourth weekend with $10 million. The live-action/animated hybrid comedy has now scored $84.1 million domestically and has started to expand overseas with $01.9 million worldwide. The family film is now aiming for around $105 million domestically and will make money for Sony on a $50 million budget.

Alex Garland’s Annihilation was down a disappointing 49% to $5.7 million in its second weekend, indicating that the C CinemaScore was an accurate predictor of its word of mouth potential. The well-reviewed but underperforming sci-fi film now sits at $20.6 million domestically, with overseas markets yet to open. It should now be able to nail down $35 million or so, which means it needs a strong overseas run to avoid a loss on a $40 million budget.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is, amazingly, still holding out strong. The action-comedy brought in $4.5 million, down just 20% from last weekend, and has $393.2 million domestically and $928.9 million worldwide at this point. It will make it to $400 million domestically with ease and is, of course, a major hiton a $90 million budget.

Fifty Shades Freed continued to fade away, down 54% to $3.3 million in its fourth weekend. The erotic romance franchise closer continues to pace right along with Fifty Shades Darker and has $95.6 million domestically, along with $346.2 million worldwide. It will finish off at around $100 million domestically and will rely on overseas grosses to surprass Darker worldwide, providing profitable closing note. The budget was $55 million.

The Greatest Showman was down a minor 20% in its eleventh week with $2.7 million. There’s really not much to say about this film, other than to marvel at its strength at the box office. It now has $164.6 domestically and $375.9 million worldwide, and will make it to $170 million in North America. It’s a nice hit for Fox on an $84 million budget.

Orion Pictures’ young adult romance Every Day closed out the top ten with $1.6 million, down a lackluster 48% from its low opening start. The film is aiming for break-even but not too much more than that, with $5.3 million domestically on a $4.9 million budget. It shouldn’t make it past $10 million at this point.

Next weekend sees Black Panther’s first potential competition, althoiugh A Wrinkle in Time may have a tough time wresting #1 away. The adaptation of the Madeline L’Engle novel is looking at a mid- to high-$30 million opening. The horror sequel Strangers: Prey at Night should get close to $10 million. Meanwhile, Entertainment Studios is opening The Hurricane Heist, while STX takes aim with low-budget action-drama Gringo. Neither film should make it above $5 million.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Black Panther – $65.7 million ($501.1 million total)
2. Red Sparrow – $17 million ($17 million total)
3. Death Wish – $13 million ($13 million total)
4. Game Night – $10.7 million ($33.5 million total)
5. Peter Rabbit – $10 million ($84.1 million total)
6. Annihilation – $5.7 million ($20.6 million total)
7. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle – $4.5 million ($393.2 million total)
8. Fifty Shades Freed – $3.3 million ($95.6 million total)
9. The Greatest Showman – $2.7 million ($164.6 million total)
10. Every Day – $1.6 million ($5.3 million total)