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411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Will Brock Lesnar Get UFC 200 The Most PPV Buys of 2016?

June 8, 2016 | Posted by Lorenzo Vasquez
Brock Lesnar USADA Image Credit: UFC

Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA! But, before I move on, I’d like to stop for a moment and send out my condolence to the friends and families of both Muhammad Ali and Kimbo Slice. Professional combat sports took a hard hit over these past few days with both losses. Muhammad Ali took boxing, and combat sports, to a new level and is responsible for perhaps the biggest shift in the game-from fighters working only as nothing more than athletes, to fighters becoming showman and upping the entertainment value of combat sports. Not one single fighter attracted attention and stood up to the establishment like Ali. And, he happened to be one of greatest boxers of all time while getting it done. His craft was unparalleled in his time and he was like no other on the mic.

Kevin Ferguson, best known as Kimbo Slice, while not the craftiest and most well versed mixed martial artist, was a tremendous human being who fought with everything he could absolutely muster each time out, He showed heart and will, determination with a gritty flare. He was not here in search of his own gratification, but instead fought to give his family, specifically his children, a better life and opportunity than he had. Kimbo Slice is responsible for bringing millions of new eyes and fans, a new allure, to mixed martial arts. He is a major part of the equation that helped MMA find a home on broadcast television. He opened the doors and paved the avenue. Both men will be missed and always remembered. Their place in combat sports history is cemented for eternity. Rest in peace Muhammad Ali and Kimbo Slice.

And now, on to this week’s edition of the fact or fiction in wacky and wild world of mixed martials arts! I’m your host, Lorenzo Vasquez III, and thank you for coming back for another round. By the way, thank you for your votes and comments, it’s greatly appreciated. Last week, I stepped up on short notice and bumped heads with the one and only, Evan Zivin. We went toe-to-toe on subjects ranging from Stipe Miocic breaking the UFC heavyweight title curse, Conor McGregor covering up his loss, and soccer kicks in MMA. While, Evan decided to castigate my work, I handed him a beating that is sure to sting until our next meeting. When all was settled, I picked up the 23 to 15 victory.

This week, Jonathan Butterfield makes his way onto the battlefield to challenge 411’s jack of all trades, “The Vile One,” Jeffrey Harris. This is cooking up to be a nice little discussion as they deliberate over Muhammad Ali’s legacy in MMA, Michael Bisping’s champion title win, Brock Lesnar’s return at UFC 200, and much more! Strap in, and get ready for the ride, because it’s time for another round of, 411 Fact or Fiction MMA!!! Let get things rolling…

TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
Jonathan “Butters” Butterfield
Interviewer/Columnist, 411 MMA Zone
0-0-0

VS

BLUE CORNER
Jeffrey “The Vile One” Harris
Contributor, Various 411 Zones
0-0-0

After coming off a year long suspension, then losing by way of technical knockout to Neil Magny, and suffering a total knockout courtesy of Dan Henderson, Hector Lombard will never again be a title contender inside the UFC.

Jon Butterfield: FACT Hector Lombard remains a dangerous fighter, and I’ve no doubt he’ll starch a few more fighters before his UFC tenure is done, but I don’t see him becoming a title contender again. We’ve probably said or thought similar things about other fighters, and the likes of Robbie Lawler, Andrei Arlovski and most recently Michael Bisping have really underlined the fact you cannot write anybody off these days, but Lombard is 38 now and has shown clear difficulty replicating his success in Bellator against the uppermost echelons of the UFC roster. The Tim Boetsch fight may have been one of the dullest in UFC history, but it really showed that if you want, it’s not that difficult to evade Lombard’s brutal power. Once you’re out of the first round and a half, the fight is then anybody’s, and the likes of Magny and Henderson have really taken advantage of that fact.

You just have to be better-rounded and with more gears to be a title contender.

Jeffrey Harris: FACT I vow here and now, that I will never pick Hector Lombard to win a fight ever again. I picked him to beat Henderson, and I so regret that decision now. Even at this stage in his career, I should’ve known better that even Henderson had a pretty good chance to beat an overrated, over-hyped prospect like Hector Lombard. Lombard’s UFC career has been nothing short of mediocre. He’s a counter-striker who moves as slow as molasses. He has trouble with his gas tank and finishing the job. Not to mention, he looks clueless when a fighter circles around him and doesn’t play his game. He doesn’t know how to cut off the cage or throw combinations at all. After an unsuccessful run at welterweight, and losing to Henderson in his return to middleweight, I don’t see Lombard having a big run again at this point in his career. Unless he goes back to Bellator MMA.

With Brock Lesnar returning at UFC 200, Conor McGregor will not hold the record for most pay-per-view buys in 2016.

Jon Butterfield: FACT I’m not sure about this at all, because while UFC 200 is stacked, the UFC will likely push the boat out again to make the most of the spectacle at 202. Conor-Diaz II will definitely draw once more, but my hunch is, Conor really hurt the prospects of the fight when he pulled out of 200. He’s done everything he can to detract from that and indeed the previous loss to Diaz with all this Mayweather nonsense (or maybe it isn’t nonsense, who knows?), but the UFC like their round numbers and the hype behind 200 is already unprecedented, and now Lesnar joins the fray in a veritable shit-storm of hype and questionable media relations that have nonetheless got the whole MMA world talking once again. 202 will be big, of course, likely bigger than 196, but Lesnar-Hunt is an epic freakshow fight perfectly pitched at a huge audience in the US, one that extends beyond MMA fans and into curious – and actively so – WWE fans. Brock isn’t ex-WWE, remember – he’s still very much WWE. Oh, and then there’s just the same matter of Jones-Cormier II, the actual ultra-intense rivalry in the main event, together with a Women’s title fight and Aldo-Edgar and Velasquez-Browne. Even the preliminary card is outstanding.

Jeffrey Harris: FACT I’m saying fact as long as Brock Lesnar staying on at UFC 200 stays intact. That will definitely bring interest from casual fans to the fight. He has a legitimate opponent in Mark Hunt. I expect Lesnar to get thoroughly destroyed by Hunt, but this is a good match-up to draw in the casual fans for this fight card. Now this fight card has a huge title rematch between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. Their first fight did close to one million buys. It has a two other lower level title fights, and it has the MMA return of Brock Lesnar. This is an epic card, and it was already a much better card without McGregor. Lesnar’s name gives this fight the extra star power it probably lost after McGregor was pulled from the event. People will tune into McGregor’s rematch as well. I believe with Lesnar’s return, UFC 200 will probably rival and beat the numbers for UFC 196. The UFC is clearly pulling out all the stops with this event. With the added fight week promotion and cross-promotion on other networks, the intrigue of Lesnar’s return, and that this is the “UFC 200” numbered event, this will be the UFC’s biggest selling event of the year. I don’t see a nonsensical rematch between McGregor and Diaz topping it.

After becoming a victim/witness in an armed robbery and shootout, in which her coach was shot and hospitalized, it would be best for Valentina Shevchenko to postpone her bout with Holly Holm and mentally recuperate.

Jon Butterfield: FICTION I’m also at a bit of a loss to how Shevchenko feels right now. I could guess, but it’s just that; a guess. Meanwhile, her fight with Holm is the best part of a month-and-a-half away, and the stakes are high. Holm is coming off a loss to Tate, Shevchenko coming off a loss to Nunes, but a win for either puts them right back into contention in a somewhat anaemic division. Generally speaking, fighters are resilient people, and when incidents befall them in training they often talk about it or dedicate the fight to it before or after the event, and that’s probably what I see happening here. Shevchenko has a lot to say, no question, after the armed robbery incident left her coach in hospital, but sometimes these things provide that extra motivation and determination. Whether it’s enough to beat Holm, I don’t know, but unless Shevchenko remains shaken and is struggling to cope, I don’t see why she would postpone.

Jeffrey Harris: FICTION The reason I’m saying fiction is because I don’t know Valentina Shevchenko’s mindset and what she’s thinking or feeling right now. I have no idea if she is not mentally able to compete in the fight after such a traumatic incident, or if she’s raring to go. It’s not like she would’ve been the favorite for this fight beforehand. I mean common sense says she probably should pull out, but I won’t make that decision for her.

SWITCH!

The UFC bringing back Brock Lesnar should be a forewarning to Conor McGregor, that the UFC can and will move on without him should he ever decide to step on the UFC, as he did with respect to UFC 200 and his media obligations.

Jeffrey Harris: FICTION I don’t think so. This only appears to be a one-time deal for Brock Lesnar. I’m already expecting him to get annihilated by Mark Hunt. Hunt will take Lesnar to the Dark Lands, and he will leave him there. I don’t specifically think this is a forewarning to McGregor saying, “Hey, be careful because you can easily be replaced.” I think his warning was getting removed from UFC 200 all together. I think next time, McGregor and UFC will have to come to a better understanding on his media obligations and how much he’s willing to do and what he can’t do. And he should get it in writing. The media duties are part of his contractual obligations. So I would say, yes he’s technically paid to do them since they are part of his UFC contract. I find it hard to believe that McGregor’s not getting any built-in upfront money on that contract. We know at this point that bigger name fighters with lucrative UFC contracts receive upfront signing bonuses. Media obligations are part of his job, just like making weight and showing up to fight. At the end of the day, the McGregor era is going to end. Just like the eras of Georges St-Pierre, Brock Lesnar, Chuck Liddell and Anderson Silva. But then, new fighters will come along and replace the Rouseys and McGregors of today. I could argue their careers have already peaked. Rousey seems in no hurry to return to the cage. Part of McGregor’s veneer could be broken with his loss to Diaz, and the fact that he refuses to go back down to defend his featherweight title, a weight he probably can’t even make anymore.

Jon Butterfield: FICTION The McGregor fight was already replaced on the card by the main event in Jones-Cormier II. Brock Lesnar is now the co-main event, and I see absolutely no indication that that would not have been the plan had McGregor still been facing Diaz. Look, McGregor is the king of hype in the UFC, that’s clear, and his fight with Diaz on such a grand stage would have been awesome – but there was no title on the line, and many were questioning the need for a rematch given that it was the winner not the loser who took the first fight on short notice. So the McGregor fight wasn’t exactly solid gold, even if it was almost certainly going to set new records with such an incredible and legitimate undercard behind it. But if the UFC had any niggling doubts that McGregor-Diaz would have pulled the kinds of buys they need for such an event, Lesnar may have always been part of the plan. That’s my hunch, and besides, the thing that should serve as a ‘warning’ to McGregor is the fact the UFC simply wouldn’t entertain the idea of reinstating him once he’d pulled out. McGregor’s a star, but he isn’t bigger than the UFC and the show will go on with or without him. And it’s still going to be a pretty damn awesome show. Sorry Conor.

Michael Bisping winning the UFC middleweight title by way of knockout, might in fact, be the biggest upset in UFC title history, maybe only second to Matt Serra’s TKO finish of Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight title.

Jeffrey Harris: FICTION I would say no it’s not. Both Matt Serra’s victory and Holly Holm’s victory were bigger upsets. No one was looking at either Holm or Serra to win at all outside of their trainers or coaches. Not only that, there was already talk of more money going on Bisping the week of the fight after talk started coming out that Luke Rockhold had a pre-fight injury with his MCL. While I didn’t expect Bisping to win like he did at all, Bisping had a lot more experience and wins inside the UFC when he fought Rockhold. Bisping was No. 4 in the rankings and on a nice winning streak. He’s been in the UFC for 10 years and been a perennial top 10 fighter. Meanwhile, Serra never had that great of a record in the UFC. He got his title shot against GSP by winning The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback season. Holly Holm’s two victories in the UFC were awful fights. She looked less than impressive before she fought Rousey in the UFC, which was only her third bout in the Octagon. As I recall, Holm wasn’t even ranked in the top 5 when she fought Rousey, and she easily could’ve been outside of the top 10 as well. No, Bisping is not a bigger upset. Not only that, as great as Luke Rockhold looked before his title defense, and had a previous win over Bisping, he had just won the title. He wasn’t in the midst of a long, dominant title run like Rousey was when she lost, where Rousey was smoking her opponents in under a minute.

Jon Butterfield: FACT For me, yes it was. While Jeffrey is right in that Rockhold wasn’t the ultra-dominant champion either Rousey or GSP were, and I’ll also throw in Weidman knocking out Anderson Silva while Silva looked like nobody in the world could possibly touch him even goofing around, the fact that Bisping finally won the UFC Middleweight title was a huge, huge upset. For me, I didn’t figure there was a chance in this world he could win, unlike Holm who clearly had superior striking and footwork to Rousey, and perhaps unlike Weidman, who I think some of us expected to give Anderson problems with his wrestling ala Chael Sonnen. Serra over St Pierre remains the absolute number one in terms of upset victories for the simple fact that if those two had fought 100 times, GSP would probably have won 99 times – but Bisping could easily be number two. The only thing is, there were a number of very savvy writers and journalists out there refusing to write Bisping off, even as yours truly relegated his chances to somewhere between nothing and absolutely next-to-nothing.

Muhammad Ali’s legacy in combat sports has just as much meaning for mixed martial arts as it does for boxing.

Jeffrey Harris: FACT You can see the influence Muhammed Ali has had on a great many champions in the MMA world. The influences are unmistakable on the likes of fighters such as Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, two of MMA’s greatest champions and fighters of all time. Then you see comparisons being made between Ali and the likes of Chael Sonnen and Conor McGregor when it comes to trash talking. Muhammed Ali helped bring the spectacle and pageantry of pro wrestling to boxing. And some of that influence was clearly borrowed and bled over to the UFC and MMA alike. So the influence of his legacy has just as much meaning to combat sports as well as it does to boxing.

Jon Butterfield: FACT Muhammad Ali is credited with effectively reinventing sportsmen and women. There was a time when sportsmen and women were supposedly little more than competitive athletes, if you were interested in their sport or their battle of skills, great, watch it – but Muhammad Ali created an era of showmanship and self-promotion, or at least he took that to a whole new level, as he found the recipe that would draw in new fans to a sport and keep them hooked the whole time. It helped that he was the best in the world, of course, but that alone doesn’t always peak peoples interests.

Given that we’re discussing MMA here, it’s clear as day that we can see Ali’s influence. It’s everywhere, in everything. It’s in MMA posters, it’s in MMA press conferences, it’s in fighters mentalities, interviews, it’s in the way they train, the way they approach the sport. Without trying to paint Ali as some kind of deity before whom nothing was remotely worthwhile, I just don’t think you can deny that not only did he shape the future of boxing, he shaped the future of combat sports period. MMA is just a combat sport. Ali’s legacy, therefore, is absolute.

So who won? Was “The Vile One” able to circumvent “Butters” and pickup the win? Or, was Butterfield able to smoothly cruise to victory? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!

And that’s it for today, but as always, we’ll be back next week with another contest! And please, be sure to vote!

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