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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
WELCOME:
Can Daniel Cormier rise to the occasion and throw his name in the hat as one of the elite of the elite in MMA history? Will Jon Jones be able to pick up where he left off and firmly establish himself as the best fighter ever? Those questions will be answered when Cormier and Jones clash for the second time for the light heavyweight championship in the main event of UFC 214!
In addition to Cormier vs. Jones, two other title bouts highlight the card. At welterweight, Tyron Woodley defends his belt against Demian Maia. In the women’s featherweight division, Cris Cyborg finally gets a chance for UFC gold when she takes on Tonya Evinger for that division’s vacant title. Plus, “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler fights Donald Cerrone, Jimi Manuwa vs. Volkan Oezdemir, and more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on FXX.
Lightweight Bout: Josh Burkman vs. Drew Dober
Jeffrey Harris: Drew Dober, Decision
Robert Winfree: Drew Dober, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Dober, Decision
The staff picks Drew Dober, 3-0.
Flyweight Bout: Eric Shelton vs. Jarred Brooks
Jeffrey Harris: Jarred Brooks, Decision
Robert Winfree: Jarred Brooks, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Brooks, Decision
The staff picks Jarred Brooks, 3-0.
Strawweight Bout: Kailin Curran vs. Alexandra Albu
Jeffrey Harris: Alexandra Albu, Decision
Robert Winfree: Kailin Curran, TKO, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Albu, Decision
The staff picks Alexandra Albu, 2-1.
Featherweight Bout: Andre Fili vs. Calvin Kattar
Jeffrey Harris: Andre Fili, Decision
Robert Winfree: Andre Fili, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Fili, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Andre Fili, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Brian Ortega vs. Renato Moicano
Jeffrey Harris: Brian Ortega, Submission, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Brian Ortega, Submission, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Ortega, Decision
The staff picks Brian Ortega, 3-0.
Catch-weight (140 lbs.) Bout: Aljamain Sterling vs. Renan Barao
Jeffrey Harris: Aljamain Sterling, Decision
Robert Winfree: Renan Barao, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Barao, Decision
The staff picks Renan Barao, 2-1.
Featherweight Bout: Ricardo Lamas vs. Jason Knight
Jeffrey Harris: Jason Knight, Decision
Robert Winfree: Ricardo Lamas, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Lamas, Decision
The staff picks Ricardo Lamas, 2-1.
THE MAIN CARD:
Light Heavyweight Bout: Jimi Manuwa vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Jeffrey Harris: All the credit to Volkan Oezdemir. He looked very impressive with his quick knockout win over Misha Cirkunov, but I’m still not ready to get on his bandwagon yet. He’s managed to sneak up the rankings pretty quickly. For one, the UFC light heavyweight division has been gutted of top contenders lately. Ryan Bader and Phil Davis left the UFC for Bellator MMA. Oezdemir got a close win over Ovince Saint Preux in a horrendous fight earlier this year. Couple that with his strong performance over the surging Cirkunov, and he’s now ranked in the top five of UFC’s light heavyweight division. This could definitely be a tough fight for the heavy handed Jimi Manuwa, but I think his striking and knockout power will give him an edge here. Otherwise, we might be talking about Oezdemir getting a title shot very soon; as strange as that might sound.
Winner: Jimi Manuwa, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: While this is a safety net fight, Jimi Manuwa can step up to fight in the main event should either half fall out, it also sets of a possible number one contenders bout depending on how anxious the UFC and fans are for another title fight featuring Alexander Gustafsson. Both of these gentlemen are strikers who favor punching, both have power and both aren’t exactly defensive geniuses. I tend to favor Manuwa here, he’s stumbled against the highest level of competition but done well for himself otherwise. Manuwa also has better hand speed and seems to be slightly more technical while Oezdemir seems to favor a slightly sloppier affair.
Winner: Jimi Manuwa, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Oezdemir is a good striker that has power, but I think Manuwa is a better stronger with more power. Either way, leather will be thrown.
Winner: Manuwa, KO, Round 2
The staff picks Jimi Manuwa, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Robbie Lawler vs. Donald Cerrone
Jeffrey Harris: With the litany of injuries Donald Cerrone was listed as having, I’m surprised the fight was only pushed back from UFC 213 to UFC 214. That’s a period of only three weeks. Regardless, this is a fan-friendly fight, and it’s great to see it finally happening. Both men are dangerous strikers. Cerrone has always had a good grappling and BJJ game as well. However, in terms of this fight, I got to lean toward Lawler. Lawler hasn’t fought since losing the belt to Tyron Woodley, but he’s still been the more consistent performer in these type of fights. Meanwhile, it’s these type of signature fights that Cerrone tends to lose quite a bit. Granted, there is no belt on the line here, so that probably works in his favor. I just hope this is a fun, exciting fight with a lot of action, but ultimately, I believe Lawler comes out on top with his superior striking.
Winner: Robbie Lawler, Decision
Robert Winfree: I was reminded recently that about 3 years ago or so I first posited that it would be awesome if Donald Cerrone and Robbie Lawler fought, Cerrone was on a great run towards a lightweight title shot at the time and Lawler was about to become welterweight champion. I’m very excited for this fight, these two bring violence and excitement into pretty much every fight they have win, lose, or draw. Cerrone is going to want to fight in middle distance where he can kick effectively while smothering Lawler’s kicks and hopefully avoiding the punches. Cerrone has also added wicked intercepting knee strikes to his arsenal, though I question how much Lawler will be trying to close distance for them to be truly effective. Lawler is more of a puncher though he’s got a solid enough left kick. Lawler is also mostly a head hunter, which could work for him here as Cerrone can be hurt with strikes but usually only when set up with body work. If Lawler is going to win he should take a page from Jorge Masvidal’s play book, Masvidal did an excellent job of controlling inside space, crowding Cerrone just enough make him uncomfortable and throwing the straighter shots that consistently landed before Cerrone’s offense did. Cerrone should look for diversity, work the legs and body to set up head strikes, stay mobile and be sure to remain defensively responsible. There’s a perfectly valid case to be made for either man here, and I freely admit my pick might be a tad sentimental, but I wonder just how much Lawler has left after the series of brutal wars he’s been in over the last four years.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This should be great. Ultimately, I think Robbie Lawler’s power advantage will be the difference maker.
Winner: Lawler, KO, Round 2
The staff picks Robbie Lawler, 2-1.
UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship Bout: Cris Cyborg vs. Tonya Evinger
Jeffrey Harris: Cris “Cyborg” Justino finally gets her UFC title fight in what’s been a disastrous women’s featherweight division so far. This is especially considering the reigning champion, Germaine de Randamie, refused to fight Cyborg after winning the belt in a controversial bout and knowing this was likely the next fight up anyway. Evinger has been a successful fighter, becoming the bantamweight champion of Invicta FC and boasts a 19-5 record. The last time she lost a fight was to the former title contender and top ranked women’s bantamweight Sara McMann, which was in 2011. However, Tonya Evinger is really a career bantamweight, and she’s fighting Cyborg, who struggles and cuts a lot of weight just to get down to women’s featherweight; an incredibly shallow division. I don’t really see any way Evinger will overcome Cyborg here, but maybe she will surprise us. I expect Cyborg to do what she usually does and crush Evinger with her superior size and power.
Winner: Cris Justino, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: I was more excited about Cyborg vs. Anderson, Anderson is still very young in her career but is a legitimate featherweight rather than just a blown up bantamweight. Tonya Evinger has been on a career best run lately, she’s an ugly fighter who revels in those kinds of fights. Evinger also prefers top position or to control the clinch where she marries technique with gritty determination and a habit of fighting as nasty as possible. Unfortunately she’s up against a physically larger well rounded smashing machine. Cyborg can be out struck, but you need to be exceptional to do so and under striking rules because if she can mix in clinch work and takedowns all the technical superiority at distance in the world wont help you too much. I’m struggling to see how Cyborg loses this one if she fights the way she’s been fighting lately.
Winner: Cris “Cyborg” Justino, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Evinger’s toughness is unquestionable, but she is a solid bantamweight moving up to face a much larger fighter that also happens to be the best female featherweight there has ever been. I don’t think this makes it out of the first round.
Winner: Cyborg, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Cris Cyborg, 3-0.
UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Tyron Woodley vs. Demian Maia
Jeffrey Harris: Demian Maia finally gets his title shot against the lame duck champion Tyron Woodley. Maia has an amazing BJJ and grappling game that is simply out of the planet. However, I’m still not sure it’s going to be enough to overcome a wrestler like Woodley. I expect Woodley to be very cautious and strategic as he has been in the past. Maia will be equally cautious as well. I’m not expecting a great fight here, but maybe Maia can do us a favor and do his best to submit Woodley to end his title run.
Winner: Tyron Woodley, Decision
Robert Winfree: I think we all need to prepare ourselves for this fight, because there’s a very real possibility that it will suck out loud. Tyron Woodley has a couple of habits that play into Maia’s strength. Maia wants to get you against the fence, or near enough to it that he can force you there, then either hit a single leg or clinch up and trip you down. From there Maia might have the best top game in the sport, his passing is exceptional and once he secures a dominant position you better have unflappable submission defense, because if you don’t he will make you tap. Woodley likes to back himself into the fence, this facilitates his counter striking style as well as affords him maximum distance to hit a blast double leg without encountering the cage to hinder it. Woodley has power in his strikes but isn’t much of an offensive striker, he essentially has only two punches going forward a head fake into an overhand right shoulder fake to a left hook. More often than not it’s the former as he relies on explosive leg speed to close distance and land that shot. Woodley has to be prepared to defend his back, because unless he lands a clean punch in the first minute that ends things he’s going to have his back taken. Maia has taken the back of better grapplers than Woodley and if Woodley isn’t prepared to defend his neck for minutes at a time he’s going to get choked out. Both men have a habit of gassing after a couple of rounds, though I tend to favor Woodley a bit more as the fight goes on. I’m rooting for Maia here, but I’ve got a feeling Woodley defends his title yet again.
Winner: Tyron Woodley, TKO, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: This will be very interesting, but I am not expecting fireworks. Can Demian Maia close the distance and keep hold of Woodley? I think his takedowns have improved enough to the point that he can. I can easily see Woodley stopping Maia or taking a decision, but I’m leaning toward the Brazilian.
Winner: Maia, Submission, Round 4
The staff picks Tyron Woodley, 2-1.
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout: Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones
Jeffrey Harris: So many intangible factors, but I don’t really feel like they are going to sway how I pick this one. Even taking Jon Jones’ uneventful performance in his last fight against Ovince Saint Preux into account, I still don’t think Daniel Cormier is going to beat him. Cormier is an exceptional fighter and champion. However, I simply think Jones is a bad physical and stylistic match-up for him. Whether it’s mental or not, I don’t think Cormier will be able to assert his will against Jones and dominate him and grind him. That’s typically what Cormier likes to do, but Jones will utilize his reach and creative striking very well. Let’s not forget, Cormier was unable to really take down Jones or really utilize his game at all in their first fight. All the controversy and outside events aside, I’m still picking Jones to win and regain the light heavyweight belt.
Winner: Jon Jones, Decision
Robert Winfree: Here’s hoping this fight goes through. This fight has fallen apart several times and each man has been the cause at least once. Assuming these two get into the cage and fight, there are a lot of variables here. Jones has had a layoff, not as long as the one prior to his fight with Ovince Saint Preux, but while he dominated that fight he didn’t look especially good. Daniel Cormier has been fighting but he’s nearly 40 and his game is essentially the same now as it was when these two fought the first time. Cormier is still a very linear fighter, and Jones dismantles linear fighters with straight kicks and long punches. Cormier is still a wrestler first and foremost, and Jones has never been out wrestled in the cage. Cormier has talked about generating more power with his punches, but Jones has taken punches from fighters who hit a lot harder than Cormier and not even flinched. There are a lot of unknowns, but assuming everything we know to be true is actually true I really have a hard time imagining this fight going all that differently than their first one.
Winner: Jon Jones, Decision
Dan Plunkett: I think a lot of people are sleeping on Daniel Cormier. Jon Jones’ talent gets all the column space for obvious reasons, but Cormier is among the most talented fighters we have ever witnessed in this sport. He is going to make this a fight, and one way or the other, I think it will be closer than it was the last time around. Of course, I can’t pick against Jon Jones. His physical advantages, quickness, and fighting smarts make him the toughest possible style matchup for Cormier. However, we will see Cormier’s best here. No matter the outcome, this is a historic contest and ranks among the best bouts ever put together in this sport.
Winner: Jones, Decision
The staff picks Jon Jones, 3-0.
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