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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC on Fox: Emmett vs. Stephens
WELCOME:
Featherweight contenders Josh Emmett and Jeremy Stephens square off in the main event of UFC on Fox! In the co-main event, strawweights Tecia Torres and Jessica Andrade vie to earn a title shot. At light heavyweight, Ovince Saint Preux battles Ilir Latifi. Plus, “Platinum” Mike Perry fights Max Griffin, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Bantamweight Bout: Albert Morales vs. Manny Bermudez
Flyweight Bout: Eric Shelton vs. Alex Perez
Bantamweight Bout: Rani Yahya vs. Russell Doane
Light Heavyweight Bout: Sam Alvey vs. Marcin Parchnio
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Welterweight Bout: Ben Saunders vs. Alan Jouban
Strawweight Bout: Angela Hill vs. Maryna Moroz
Bantamweight Bout: Sara McMann vs. Marion Reneau
Bantamweight Bout: Renan Barao vs. Brian Kelleher
THE MAIN CARD:
Welterweight Bout: Mike Perry vs. Max Griffin
Jeffrey Harris: Mike Perry gets handed a winnable fight after his loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio here. Provided Perry is taking his loss in stride, I think he should be OK here. However, he has to keep his defense up a lot more. Perry is not scared to fight with his chin, and that can be very dangerous. Regardless, I’m picking Perry to pick Griffin apart and pick up another knockout win.
Winner: Mike Perry, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Generic brawl is likely to be generic, but there’s not a whole lot wrong with that. Griffin likely gets tagged, tries desperation takedowns and gets bludgeoned even more while doing so en route to a stoppage loss. Perry is very flawed, but Griffin isn’t the type of fighter likely to exploit his issues.
Winner: Mike Perry, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Perry is a top-notch brawler with big power for a welterweight and a good chin. I think he puts Griffin down here.
Winner: Perry, KO, Round 1
The staff picks Mike Perry, 3-0.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Ilir Latifi
Jeffrey Harris:Two light heavyweight gatekeepers are set to clash here. Ovince Saint Preux is probably never going to become champion, but he is a fairly decent fighter with some underrated submissions and grappling. Ilir Latifi is a decent mid-level fighter, but I don’t see him getting past Ovince Saint Preux.
Winner: Ovince Saint Preux, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Man, light heavyweight is just the worst. This is a very uninteresting fight between guys we’ve seen hang around the top ten or so for the last couple of years based more on the lack of turnover than anything else. Ovince Saint Preux likely wins here, Latifi is much shorter and relies heavily on his wrestling game and while Saint Preux can be out wrestled I have a really hard time seeing Latifi having prolonged success without getting caught. This one probably looks a lot like the Saint Preux vs. Corey Anderson fight.
Winner: Ovince Saint Preux, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Latifi is going to find it difficult to take OSP down, and just about his only chance at winning is getting takedowns, because he’s not going to out-strike Saint Preux from the outside. I think OSP wins comfortable decision.
Winner: Saint Preux, Decision
The staff picks Ovince Saint Preux, 3-0.
Strawweight Bout: Jessica Andrade vs. Tecia Torres
Jeffrey Harris: This is a good fight between two top five strawweight fighters. Tecia Torres herself has a win over the current champion of the division in Rose Namajunas. Andrade is coming off an impressive win over Claudia Gadelha. Either one of these fighters could be fighting for the title with a win here. It’s not exactly a title eliminator, but it could be very close. Torres is more of a wrestler. She takes you down and grinds out a victory. Andrade is a very good striker with knockout power, and she’s dangerous on the ground with her submissions skills as well. The key for Andrade in this fight will be stuffing Torres’ takedowns as Torres is fairly one-dimensional. I’m leaning toward Andrade here dominating this fight and beating Torres up to get the victory.
Winner: Jessica Andrade, Decision
Robert Winfree: I have a really hard time seeing Tecia Torres being all that competitive here. Torres is a good fighter, but her style is forward pressure and relies on her opponent either being unable to deal with her karate based offense or unable to handle the clinch exchanges that arise when the distance inevitably closes. Jessica Andrade is a tank who doesn’t seem to be physically capable of taking a backward step, bear in mind that’s a flawed methodology as well as Joanna systematically dissected her, but no one else at strawweight has been able to utilize that same strategy consistently. Gadelha had a good three or so minutes before her foot work and cardio failed her and Andrade proceeded to maul her with pressure and pace. Torres has demonstrated no ability to consistently fight while moving backwards, and Andrade is going to be the one moving forward. Andrade takes this and likely secures another title shot.
Winner: Jessica Andrade, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Torres will be best served keeping Andrade at a distance, staying away from the Brazilian’s powerful punches and her strength in close. Basically, the best thing to do is follow Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s playbook for fighting Andrade, but the reality is Torres is five inches shorter than Jedrzejczyk, and she’s even shorter than Andrade. It’s going to be extremely hard for Torres to manage that distance, and it’s going to be just as hard for her to out-duel Andrade in close. Torres is very good, but I don’t like the matchup for her.
Winner: Andrade, Decision
The staff picks Jessica Andrade, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Josh Emmett vs. Jeremy Stephens
Jeffrey Harris: Jeremy Stephens turns around very quickly for an opportunity to shoot up the featherweight rankings. Josh Emmett is now in a prime spot after knocking out Ricardo Lamas, even though he failed to make weight in that fight. Stephens himself has had trouble making weight in the past at 145 pounds, and the way this fight came together quickly does make me a bit concerned. Granted, I like Stephens for this fight. Stephens is a battle-tested and longtime UFC veteran. He’s come close to being the top contender at featherweight before, but then he loses to someone such as Cub Swanson. I think Emmett is a winnable fight for him with his power and well-rounded skillset.
Winner: Jeremy Stepehns, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: Jeremy Stephens is a beatable fighter, but you have to do a couple of things consistently to trouble him. You have to move at angles, you have to avoid a fire fight, you have to frustrate him as he tries to close distance, and you have to constantly threaten him with offense. Stephens is going to try and walk through your offense anyway, but if you just back up the entire time and offer nothing in return he’ll eventually land enough to either win a decision or catch you just right. When guys like Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Cub Swanson, or Renato Moicano, have beaten Stephens it’s been implementing those philosophies. Josh Emmett has, to this point, displayed none of those abilities. Emmett has some power in his punches but he’s very clearly either in striking or wrestling mode, his distance closing is predictable, and if he’s on the back foot he doesn’t have a whole lot to offer. Over a full five rounds, I like Stephens to take this one.
Winner: Jeremy Stephens, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Emmett tore through Ricardo Lamas in December, and a win over Jeremy Stephens would be a major statement to the rest of the division. Stephens has had a lot of fights, but he’s shown no sign of slowing down. He looked excellent in September against Gilbert Melendez, and stopped the Korean Superboy last month. I think he halts Emmett’s momentum on Saturday.
Winner: Stephens, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Jeremy Stephens, 3-0.
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