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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC on Fox: Weidman vs. Gastelum
WELCOME:
Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman looks to get back in the win column when he faces the surging Kelvin Gastelum in the main event of UFC on Fox! In the co-main event, Darren Elkins faces Dennis Bermudez. At light heavyweight, Gian Villante takes on Patrick Cummins. Plus, Jimmie Rivera vs. Thomas Almeida, and more!
THE STAFF:
https://youtu.be/qIBGFGheluM
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Lightweight Bout: Chris Wade vs. Frankie Perez
Featherweight Bout: Shane Burgos vs. Godofredo Pepey
Heavyweight Bout: Timothy Johnson vs. Junior Albini
Bantamweight Bout: Brian Kelleher vs. Marlon Vera
Featherweight Bout: Kyle Bochniak vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Fox
Heavyweight Bout: Damian Grabowski vs. Chase Sherman
Welterweight Bout: Ryan LaFlare vs. Alex Oliveira
Middleweight Bout: Rafael Natal vs. Eryk Anders
Welterweight Bout: Lyman Good vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
THE MAIN CARD:
Bantamweight Bout: Jimmie Rivera vs. Thomas Almeida
Robert Winfree: This is actually the fight on this card I’m most looking forward too. Both Rivera and Almeida have fantastic records, both have a lot of ability as well as future potential, and both tend to deliver action oriented fights. Thomas Almeida is more of a finisher, more powerful in striking, and brings a diversity of strikes with him that includes wicked knees and elbows. Unfortunately Almeida also has pretty terrible defense, even in fights he’s finished spectacularly such as the Pickett fight he’s been hit frequently and busted up a bit. His bad habits were most noticeable when Cody Garbrandt exploited his lack of movement to clobber him into unconsciousness in the first round, and he appeared to have made very little progress since then when he returned to defeat the over matched Albert Morales. Jimmie Rivera is the more technically sound fighter as well as the more well rounded one, Rivera has a solid wrestling game to compliment his striking. I’m leaning towards Rivera here based primarily on that, if the striking doesn’t go his way he’s more than capable of forcing Almeida into a grappling exchange and we’ve seen almost nothing of Almeida’s wrestling offense or defense of note. I think Rivera wins and continues his march towards contender status.
Winner: Jimmie Rivera, Decision
Dan Plunkett: I’m baffled how this fight didn’t get semi-main event status. Rivera hasn’t fought in almost a year; he was last seen in September 2016 routing Urijah Faber. Almeida rebounded from his first career loss to Cody Garbrandt by stopping Albert Morales in November, but as Robert pointed out, he has defensive deficiencies that are apparent even in his wins. He’s a dynamic striker and capable grappler, so he could certainly finish the fight, but I have Rivera taking this one.
Winner: Rivera, Decision
Light Heavyweight Bout: Patrick Cummins vs. Gian Villante
Robert Winfree: This would be a perfectly acceptable main event for a Ring of Combat or CES show. Sadly both of these guys are still in the top fifteen, because light heavyweight sucks. Cummins only wins by taking you down and either smothering you or smashing you when you’re too tired to oppose his posture. Villante only wins if you’re sloppy on the feet with a questionable chin. Flip a coin here and just pray it ends fast.
Winner: Gian Villante, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: There is potential for a good fight here. Cummins had a really exciting for round in his last fight against Jan Blachowicz in which both guys were hurt, but the next two rounds were mostly boring. Villante always seems to come up a little short. Both guys are hittable, having been stopped by strikes a combined total of five times in the past two-ish years. One thing Cummins has going for him is being the better wrestler, but I think he’s a little more hittable, and Villante is a bit quicker, which will decide the fight.
Winner: Villante, TKO, Round 2
Featherweight Bout: Dennis Bermudez vs. Darren Elkins
Robert Winfree: Darren Elkins wont be a truly elite fighter, he’s taken too much damage and is too one dimensional. But he’s good enough when it comes to wrestling you against the fence and wearing you down there that he’ll beat a lot of guys. Dennis Bermudez also needs to be able to out wrestle you, he’s more of a blast double leg style of wrestler and has decent power in his strikes. This whole thing comes down to Bermudez either getting takedowns or avoiding them, and I think he’s going to wind up shooting for a double leg that stalls out on the fence and inevitably get drowned by Elkins fence fighting.
Winner: Darren Elkins, Decision
Dan Plunkett: The Damage returns! Elkins took a bad beating in March before coming back to beat Mirsad Bettie, extending his win streak to four in the process. Bermudez was stopped by the Korean Zombie in his last outing, but I think he’ll fare better here. He’ll get close and control Elkins for a decision win.
Winner: Bermudez, Decision
Middleweight Bout: Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Robert Winfree: I have to imagine that Chris Weidman has nightmares about one ill advised wheel kick attempt. Prior to that one move he was holding his own, arguably winning, against Luke Rockhold. After that, he got smashed by Rockhold, smashed by Yoel Romero, and couldn’t out wrestle Gegard Mousasi. Weidman is in a true make or break moment here, if he loses four fights in a row he’ll never reach title contender status at middleweight again and might have to move up to try and revitalize his career in a division that’s much weaker than middleweight is at the moment. I’m not sure Weidman will win here, Weidman has some great tools at his disposal but elements of this match up don’t favor him at all. Weidman is a good pressure fighter who has excellent cage cutting skills, but he’s never really figured out how to fight while moving backwards. Weidman is a very good grappler but he’s abandoned much of that recently in favor of naked body kicks or trying to punch himself into the clinch. Kelvin Gastelum has an abundance of ability, he’s a wrestler generally but has developed an exceptional fundamental understanding of boxing in the context of MMA. Gastelum isn’t fancy, mostly relying on the tried and true one two combination, but he’s worked hard on perfecting that for his purposes in the cage. Gastelum is also fearless, if he loses an exchange he doesn’t back away and reset, he simply instigates another one that he can win. After a round of being solidly controlled and ridden around in the clinch by Tim Kennedy he didn’t seem phased at all, resuming tough pressure with solid combinations and breaking Kennedy’s will. Gastelum can be out grappled, such as in the Neil Magny fight, and he’s relatively susceptible to counter strikes, see his fight with Woodley for several examples, but it’s hard to wrestle him down and while Weidman has the ability to do that I’m not sure he will in execution. For Weidman to win he must close distance and get Gastelum on his back, but I question his ability to do so in the face of the pace and pressure as well as accuracy and volume that Gastelum fights with.
Winner: Kelvin Gastelum, TKO, Round 4
Dan Plunkett: I have more faith in Chris Weidman’s ability to close the distance and put Gastelum on the floor than Robert does. There is a significant size difference here that will come into play, and once on the ground, Weidman has a really strong top game. I think he finds success on the mat and stops Gastelum.
Winner: Weidman, TKO, Round 3
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