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MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
(c) Islam Makhachev (154.5 lbs.) vs. #10 Renato Moicano (155 lbs.) – for lightweight title
(c) Merab Dvalishvili (134 lbs.) vs. #2 Umar Nurmagomedov (135 lbs.) – for bantamweight title
#3 Jamahal Hill (205.5 lbs.) vs. #2 Jiri Prochazka (204.5 lbs.)
#6 Jailton Almeida (235 lbs.) vs. #7 Serghei Spivac (233 lbs.)
Kevin Holland (183.5 lbs.) vs. Reinier de Ridder (184.5 lbs.)

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPNews/Disney+, 8 p.m. ET)
Raoni Barcelos (135.5 lbs.) vs. Payton Talbott (135.5 lbs.)
Azamat Bekoev (185 lbs.) vs. Zach Reese (185.5 lbs.)
Billy Elekana (200 lbs.) vs. #13 Bogdan Guskov (205.5 lbs.)
Grant Dawson (156 lbs.) vs. Diego Ferreira (156 lbs.)

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
#13 Ailin Perez (135 lbs.) vs. #9 Karol Rosa (135.5 lbs.)
Muin Gafurov (136 lbs.) vs. Rinya Nakamura (135.5 lbs.)
Bernardo Sopaj (135 lbs.) vs. Ricky Turcios (136 lbs.)
Clayton Carpenter (125.5 lbs.) vs. #11 Tagir Ulanbekov (125.5 lbs.)

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Hello everyone and welcome to 411mania’s LIVE coverage of UFC 311, I’m Robert Winfree and I’ll be your host for the evening. It’s time for the first UFC PPV of 2025 and boy did this one hit a giant speed bump yesterday when title challenger Arman Tsarukyan suffered a back injury during the final stages of his weight cut. So on about a days notice Renato Moicano moves from fighting Beneil Dariush to fighting for the belt against champion Islam Makhachev. Makhachev is on the edge of some pretty big numbers tonight, a win gives him the most consecutive title defenses in UFC lightweight history at 4 and would give him a total of 5 wins in title fights in UFC history which is also the most as he’d surpass BJ Penn, Benson Henderson, and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev also has the chance to get his 15th consecutive UFC win overall which would tie him with Kamaru Usman in second place and mean he’s just one more win away from tying Anderson Silva’s all time UFC win streak. It may not get talked about a lot but Islam Makhachev is incredibly close to some all time records and it’s probably time we started talking about him in some of those terms. The co-main event is for the bantamweight title as newly crowned champion Merab Dvalishvili goes for his first title defense against top contender Umar Nurmagomedov, Dvalishvili is riding the longest winning streak in UFC bantamweight history but Nurmagomedov feels almost inevitable in this role. Elsewhere on the card we’ve got Jamahal Hill vs. Jiri Prochazka for the presumptive next title shot at Alex Pereira, assuming stuff with Magomed Ankalaev ever gets sorted out, Kevin Holland vs. Renier de Ridder should be decent fun. On the prelims Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira has some potential and I’m interested in Rinya Nakamura’s continued rise as he takes on Muin Gafurov. Honestly it’s a pretty strong card overall, though losing Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush does hurt.

UFC 311 comes to the world from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, USA. We’ve got Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, and Daniel Cormier on commentary for the event. We’re all pretty well acquainted with the new rules at this point so keep your eye out for 12-6 elbows now that they’re legal and more importantly we’ll see who can start to weaponize the new definition of a grounded opponent.

Tagin Ulanbekov has gone 4-1 in the UFC and is on a two fight winning streak with both of those being finishes, that’s been enough to crack the top 15 and now he’s looking to defend his ranking and then look at fighting up in the ranks. Clayton Carpenter is undefeated including two wins in the UFC with both of those being finishes and that’s been enough to get him some traction as a prospect, now he’s taking a serious step up in class against a ranked opponent. The odds are with Ulanbekov at -325 while a +260 payout on Carpenter might tempt a few bettors out there.

Flyweight Bout: Clayton Carpenter (8-0, 125.5 lbs.) vs. #11 Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2, 125.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Ulanbekov is an inch taller with four inches of reach advantage. They touch gloves to get us going. A bit of feinting from both men. Calf kick from Ulanbekov. Left hook from Carpenter lands. Right from Ulanbekov then Carpenter counters with a left hook. Bit of a front kick from Ulanbekov. Glancing one two from Ulanbekov then Carpenter misses a high kick. They trade kicks then Ulanbekov shoots into a clinch on the fence. They start jockeying for position and Ulanbekov is able to get a takedown into full guard. Carpenter starts working his guard up high, Ulanbekov lands a couple of punches. A few short elbows from Ulanbekov then Carpenter lands one of his own. Ulanbekov lands a couple of more elbows and Carpenter goes to control his posture now. Some more elbows from Ulanbekov, he’s not quite landing flush but he’s staying busy on offense. Carpenter lands another elbow then he’s able to scramble up and separate. Right hand from Ulanbekov. Some stance switches from Carpenter, he’s been showing calf kicks a fair bit and they’re starting to add up just a bit. Jab from Ulanbekov, Carpenter then clinches as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Ulanbekov

ROUND TWO: Both men show jabs early then Ulanbekov avoids a calf kick. They clash on punches with both men landing. Jab from Ulanbekov. Body kick from Ulanbekov but Carpenter takes him down off of it into half guard. Ulanbekov works for a sweep but Carpenter is able to settle that and keep Ulanbekov to just getting full guard. Eventually Ulanbekov is able to scramble back up and separate. Double leg from Ulanbekov, Carpenter is able to sprawl on him though and they wind up clinched on the fence. It takes a second but Ulanbekov is able to get another takedown against the fence. A few body shots from Ulanbekov land. A few punches land for Ulanbekov. Pretty decent right hand from Ulanbekov lands then Carpenter tries to invert for a leg as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Ulanbekov but closer, 20-18 Ulanbekov overall

ROUND THREE: Jab from Ulanbekov then a left hook behind it. Leg kicks from Carpenter but then he eats a jab. Solid right hand from Ulanbekov bothers Carpenter for a second. A few more jabs from Ulanbekov, Carpenter is able to land a right to the body but his entries are kind of figured out at this point. They trade punches, Carpenter does land another calf kick though. Counter right from Ulanbekov then Carpenter forces a clinch to the fence. Some knees to the leg from Carpenter. Ulanbekov is staying upright so far, Carpenter is sticking tight to him but his offense is pretty muted. Ulanbekov gets the clinch to 50/50 position and pushes Carpenter into the fence now. Takedown from Ulanbekov into full guard again. They trade a few short blows but nothing of substance lands. Carpenter tries rubber guard now but Ulanbekov postures through it and lands a few elbows. Ulanbekov passes to side control, nice toreando style pass, and he lands elbows from there to close out the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Ulanbekov, 30-27 Ulanbekov overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Tagir Ulanbekov via unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27 x2)

Solid win for Ulanbekov who does get an interview along with the translator, he thanks everyone for being here and puts over his team but is happy to have gotten the win. Asked about the future he wants to be champion and feels he’s ready for a shot at Pantoja. Seems unlikely at this juncture but putting it out there isn’t a bad idea. To close he dedicates the win to his coach, the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov.

Ricky Turcios has gone 2-2 in the UFC and is coming off of a loss so now he’s trying to avoid his first ever losing streak. Bernado Sopaj suffered a pretty memorable knockout loss in his UFC debut last year, he’s had three fights fall through since then but now he’s finally getting his sophomore outing and will be looking for that all important first UFC win. Sopaj is the favorite at -250 to the +205 comeback for Turcios.

Bantamweight Bout: Bernardo Sopaj (11-3, 135 lbs.) vs. Ricky Turcios (12-4, 136 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Turcios is three inches taller with five inches of reach advantage. They touch gloves to get us going. Sopaj stalks forward early, Turcios doing a bit of stance switching as they move around. Both men show kicks, nothing really landing yet. High kick from Sopaj mostly lands but Turcios eats it. They trade calf kicks. Sopaj keeps pressuring forward. Calf kick from Sopaj. Turcios has a high kick blocked. Now Sopaj is showing some stance switches as well, he lands a counter right hand. Body kick from Turcios. Another calf kick from Sopaj, that left leg of Turcios is not doing good. Turcios bulls into a clinch on the fence. Sopaj lands a short right after Turcios lands a few knees. Eventually Sopaj spins free and lands a jab. Turcios tries a takedown, Sopaj defends and they hit the fence where Turcios finishes the takedown then jumps to the backpack. They sag down and Sopaj slides Turcios over the top and gets on top in butterfly guard. Turcios wall walks but eats a knee for his trouble as they clinch again. Elbow from Sopaj on the break then an uppercut. Turcios is trying to force a brawl now and Sopaj is countering him nicely. They clinch again as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Sopaj

ROUND TWO: They touch gloves again. A lot of southpaw work from Turcios to try and protect that left leg. Bit of a high kick from Sopaj. Jab from Sopaj. Left hand from Sopaj then he avoids a takedown and lands a calf kick. A combination of punches from Sopaj land. Turcios lands a jab of his own. Calf kick from Sopaj. Turcios tries a takedown but Sopaj counters and lands punches while solidifying top position then they scramble back up and free. Uppercut from Sopaj then a hard knee in close. They clinch up and Sopaj spins free then lands punches. Knee from Sopaj but Turcios lands a counter left. Turcios is starting to get close reliably but he’s eating punches on the way. They clinch and then Sopaj punches him on the break. They tie up and trade punches. Turcios wit a right hand then a left hook. Sopaj lands a right hook in close. They clinch up and hit the fence. Some knees from Turcios, Sopaj lands uppercuts then a knee of his own. Another uppercut from Sopaj then Turcios spins free. Elbow then a left hook from Sopaj. Single leg from Sopaj trips down Turcios then he lands a left hand as Turcios scrambles up into a clinch. They wrestle around in the clinch as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Sopaj, 20-18 Sopaj overall

ROUND THREE: Hard front kick from Sopaj then a series of punches, Turcios drops but wrestles onto a single leg. Sopaj moves to the ride and lands punches then some elbows as Turcios tries again to come up on a single leg. Sopaj stands free, elbows Turcios in the head as he stands then lands an uppercut. Somehow Turcios is still standing but his face is kind of a mess now. They clinch up and then break. Jabs go back and forth then Sopaj lands a knee to the chin but Turcios just wont go down. Both men miss punches, they’ve been almost redlining things for most of the fight so it’s understandable. They clinch and hit the fence but nothing comes of it. Takedown from Turcios then he jumps to the back but Sopaj slings him down then gets the back standing. Trip from Sopaj and he’s on top in full guard. Sopaj avoids a triangle attack and moves to side control. Turcios wrestles to his knees and then stands free. Uppercut then a left hook from Sopaj. Front kick from Sopaj then Turcios lands a leg kick. Jab from Sopaj. Another front kick from Sopaj. Calf kick from Sopaj then he lands an uppercut in close. Turcios is as tough as old shoe leather. Rolling thunder kick from Sopaj mostly connects, he ends the fight on his back but holding a triangle position as the clock runs out.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Sopaj, 30-27 Sopaj overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Bernado Sopaj via unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27 x2)

Turcios taking the second isn’t wholly out of bounds. Mic time for Sopaj, he calls the fight crazy and likes to have wars like this then thanks the fans. He talks about the preparation for this fight since the fight was rebooked to close.

Rinya Nakamura is undefeated including three UFC wins, he’s emerging as another rising talent for the nation of Japan in MMA and he’s looking to remain perfect with another win. Muin Gafurov has gone 1-2 in the UFC but is coming off of a win and is trying to get his UFC record to the .500 mark for the first time. Nakamura is a pretty big favorite at -625 so that +455 comeback on Gafurov is looking a little tempting.

Bantamweight Bout: Muin Gafurov (19-6, 136 lbs.) vs. Rinya Nakamura (9-0, 135.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: These two are the same height while Nakamura has half an inch of reach advantage. They touch gloves, Nakamura fighting southpaw. Some feinting from both men as they circle. Gafurov misses a wild right hand. Bit of a high kick from Nakamura. Nakamura with an inside leg kick. One two from Gafurov. Gafurov slips on a high kick, also ate a bit of a left hand there, then bounces back up. Body kick from Nakamura. Leg kick from Nakamura but Gafurov counters him with a right hand. Nakamura with a body kick then Gafurov counters with a left hook. Gafurov tries a wheel kick that doesn’t really land. Overhand right from Gafurov off balances Nakamura and he gets on top of him in full guard. A few strikes on the mat go back and forth. They scoot towards the fence but the round will end with Gafurov still on top.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Gafurov

ROUND TWO: Inside leg kick from Nakamura. Gafurov with a body kick. Solid left hand from Nakamura but Gafurov just eats it. Gafurov avoids a wheel kick. Nakamura blocks a high kick. They both miss punches. Spinning back kick from Gafurov. Nakamura is able to land a left hand. Gafurov blocks a takedown attempt. Inside leg kick from Nakamura. A right hand from Gafurov drops Nakamura, Nakamura quickly tries a single leg and Gafurov grabs a front headlock to slow things down. A few knees from Gafurov to the head as Nakamura is standing. Nakamura with an arm drag but Gafurov wrestles up on a single leg then they separate. One two from Gafurov then a bit of a high kick as the final exchange of the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Gafurov, 20-18 Gafurov overall

ROUND THREE: Nakamura needs a finish here. Gafurov lands a right hand that drops Nakamura to a knee. Nakamura starts moving forward but misses a front kick. Side kick from Gafurov, he’s just not been made to respect too much of Nakamura’s game and is starting to really show off a bit. Calf kick from Gafurov. Nakamura avoids a wheel kick. They wrestle and Nakamura winds up on top in half guard. A little less than 3 minutes for Nakamura to find that finish. Gafurov builds onto a hip but Nakamura grabs a top side guillotine for control. Nakamura gets both hands working the guillotine but he’s still stuck in half guard and really needs full mount to leverage this position. Nakamura bails on that choke and Gafurov is able to scramble up to his feet. Bit of a left hook from Gafurov. Both men land punches in close. Nakamura is aggressively pursuing Gafurov but isn’t able to find a kill shot. Spinning back kick from Gafurov. Bit of a high kick from Gafurov as the last relevant blow of the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Gafurov but the closest of the fight, 30-27 Gafurov overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Muin Gafurov via unanimous decision (30-27 x3)

No interview for Gafurov but that was a heck of a win for him.

Karol Rosa has been trading wins and losses since 2022, she’s 3-3 during that time but she is coming off of a win and she’s trying for her first winning streak since 2021. Ailin Perez is on a four fight winning streak but this represents a pretty notable step up in class for her, though that also means she could score a really notable win which could put her in the top 10 and inject a little life into a seriously faltering division. The odds are with Rosa at -250 to a +205 payout for Perez.

Women’s Bantamweight Bout: #13 Ailin Perez (11-2, 135 lbs.) vs. #9 Karol Rosa (18-6, 135.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: These two are the same height while Rosa has an inch and a half of reach advantage. Some feinting early from both women. Perez gets a brief clinch then lands a left hand as they break. Right hand from Rosa but Perez hits a takedown into half guard. A few shots to the body and head from Perez then Rosa shrimps to full guard. Perez lands a few punches then passes to half guard. Rosa is able to kick Perez off and they resume standing. Rosa lands a right hand. Leg kick from Rosa. Another leg kick from Rosa and she avoids a clinch attempt. Calf kick from Rosa. Spinning back fist from Perez lands. Perez tries a few kicks but isn’t really landing much, commentary is bored and discussing Irene Aldana’s cut in her last fight. Leg kick from Rosa, she’s really starting to land those as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Perez but a close one

ROUND TWO: Both women come out jabbing. Rosa lands an inside leg kick, Perez briefly complains of a low blow but doesn’t take long to restart. Perez avoids a few punches and gets a clinch. Nothing comes of it and they separate. Rosa lands another leg kick. Perez lands a front kick. Rosa blocks a spinning back fist then avoids a takedown. Bit of a right hand from Rosa. Perez lands a body kick. Leg kick from Rosa. Those leg kicks from Rosa are starting to add up a bit, she’s happy to kick either leg as Perez stance switches. Knee from Rosa but Perez is able to tie up and after a bit of a struggle does hit a takedown into half guard. Not much going on here. A few lefts do land for Perez. The round ends in that spot.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Perez but another close one, 20-18 Perez overall

ROUND THREE: Rosa lands a left hook. Perez is showing leg kicks, she’s just generally staying a little busier. Leg kick from Rosa. Bit of a high kick from Perez. Another leg kick from Rosa. Perez lands a leg kick of her own but the ones from Rosa are adding up a bit. Rosa blocks a few strikes. Perez has a right hand blocked. They clinch up and Perez pushes things into the fence. This time Rosa is able to spin free relatively quickly then lands a leg kick. Left from Perez but Rosa lands one of her own. Another leg kick from Rosa. Rosa with another leg kick. Rosa blocks a spinning back fist. Boy this is an uneventful round. Rosa misses a spinning elbow and they both miss punches in close to end the round.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Rosa but who knows, 29-28 Perez overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Ailin Perez via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)

No interview for Perez.

Grant Dawson has only lost in the UFC to Bobby Green while going 10-1-1 in the promotion overall, he’s currently on a two fight winning streak and he’s looking for a real statement win that will get him either ranked or fighting ranked opposition next. Diego Ferreira is enjoying a little bit of a career renaissance, he broke a three fight losing streak not too long ago and now he’s on a two fight winning streak with both being bonus winning finishes. Ferreira is trying to turn back another up and coming fighter tonight. Dawson is the -245 favorite but that +200 comeback on Ferreira might be a decent little value bet.

Lightweight Bout: Grant Dawson (22-2-1, 156 lbs.) vs. Diego Ferreira (19-5, 156 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: Dawson is an inch taller while Ferreira has two inches of reach advantage. Some feinting from Dawson early. Calf kick from Dawson. Bit of a wheel kick from Dawson. Ferreira is still very composed and measured, none of these from Dawson have landed super cleanly. Glancing right from Dawson. Leg kick from Ferreira. Dawson tries a takedown and hits it against the fence. Ferreira is able to wall walk but eats a few punches along the way as Dawson has moved to the ride position. Ferreira tries to granby roll after eating a knee that would have been illegal last year, he can’t get it fully but scrambles around. Dawson holds a single leg, Ferreira puts a hand down for balance and Dawson kicks him in the face a couple of times before they scramble around again. Dawson is back in the ride position and lands a few short punches. Ferreira turns into Dawson and gets full guard. A few punches land for Dawson. Dawson stands but Ferreira lands an up kick, Dawson lands a hammer fist though as he goes back into the guard of Ferreira.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Dawson

ROUND TWO: Ferreira comes out aggressive to start the round and lands some punches, Dawson tries a takedown and they scramble around with Ferreira winding up on top. Dawson gives up his back, Ferreira jumps to it but only one hook is in and Dawson slips him off and they restart. They trade punches in close. Left hand from Dawson. Single leg from Dawson and he’s got Ferreira down against the fence. Full guard for Ferreira and Dawson lands a few punches. Some elbows from Dawson land and he’s able to keep Ferreira from starting to build for a wall walk. Dawson is keeping a decent pace of strikes on the ground, nothing debilitating is landing but he’s definitely working and not just stalling. Ferreira just can’t get anything like a structure built to try and start wall walking. A few short elbows from Dawson land. Another elbow from Dawson lands. The round ends in that spot with Dawson landing a few more strikes.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Dawson, 20-18 Dawson overall

ROUND THREE: Ferreira fights off a single leg early but then eats a right hand. Right hand from Dawson then he tries a takedown but Ferreira gets around towards a reverse donkey guard. Dawson scrambles around and gets on top in full guard. Some hammer fists from Dawson, nothing serious enough and the ref just stands them up. They clash on right hands and Ferreira is wobbled, they then trade in close before Dawson gets a clinch to the fence. Outside reap from Dawson and he’s on top in full guard again. Some punches from Dawson, he’s aware that he needs to do more than he was before. Dawson passes to half guard briefly but Ferreira gets full guard back. A few more hammer fists from Dawson land. Now Dawson passes to half guard. Ferreira again shrimps around and gets full guard back. Dawson with some punches that land, he’s doing a better job of posturing and landing stead of just short blows when they’re in close to each other. Dawson to the back as Ferreira builds to a knee, both hooks in for Dawson then he goes to a body triangle. Ferreira fights off a choke attempt as the round ends.

SCORECARD: 10-9 Dawson, 30-27 Dawson overall

OFFICIAL RESULT: †WINNER – Grant Dawson via unanimous decision (30-27 x3)

Good win for Dawson and he does get an interview. Dawson is happy with the performance and puts over Ferreira as a very dangerous opponent. He feels bad for Beneil Dariush and offers to fight him in Miami in April. Not a bad call out all things considered.

Bogdan Guskov has gone 2-1 in the UFC and he’s on a two fight winning streak, now he’s trying to defend his ranking in the almost comically weak light heavyweight division as well as setting his sights on someone ranked above him next. Billy Elekana is making his UFC debut here on relatively short notice replacing Johnny Walker but he’s got a chance to score a big win and prove he’s an exciting entry into the division. The odds like Guskov at -160 to +140 on Elekana.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Billy Elekana (7-1, 200 lbs.) vs. #13 Bogdan Guskov (16-3, 205.5 lbs.)

ROUND ONE: