411 Box Office Report: Aquaman & The Lost Kingdom Claims #1 With Soft Start

The DC Extended Universe had its swan song at the box office this weekend as Aquaman & The Lost Kingdom limped to #1. The superhero sequel took the top spot with $27.7 million through Sunday and a projected $40 million through Monday. That’s the second-worst three-day opening for a non-pandemic DCEU film, behind only Blue Beetle’s $25 million start in August, and less than half the three-day start of Aquaman back in December of 2018.

The start is a weak one for the movie, which was expected to open in the $35 million three-day and $50 million four-day range as of last week. Even the four-day numbers are lower than most superhero films of 2023; The Marvels, which is the MCU’s least successful film of the year, did $46.1 million over three days without a holiday to bolster it (Christmas is a busy movie day, though that is somewhat counteracted by Christmas Eve being a bit quieter than most days). If you compare Aquaman’s opening to the likes of The Flash ($55 million), Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1 million), and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ($120.6 million), it looks even worse.

It is important to note here that Lost Kingdom, unlike several of the above movies, will have better box office legs to keep it from looking too horrible. The holiday season is always great for week-to-week holds; the first Aquaman nearly quintupled its opening weekend. So this will not come out looking like The Flash or The Marvels, both of which started low and faded out. Still, on a $200 million budget this film has little chance of making any sort of profit.

This can all be chalked up to a number of factors. First off, the negative buzz and lame duck feeling around the DCEU’s closure has been very contagious. People were either confused about the status of these films going forward, or knew that anything taking place in Lost Kingdom was unlikely to carry over into the new James Gunn-spearheaded DCU. And the dropoff in fan perception of the franchise combined with that confusion to create a distinct lack of interest in the film.

That sort of thing can be countered by positive critic buzz and has in the past, but the critics didn’t bail this one out. Lost Kingdom scored an aggregated 36% positive of total reviews from Rotten Tomatoes, making it the least-loved new film out of a whole spate of new releases for the weekend. And audience perception hasn’t been amazing, with a 79% RT audience score and B CinemaScore. By comparison, Blue Beetle had a B+/92% audience score. This is more on par with The Marvels’ B and 84% at the time of its opening weekend – aka, not strong metrics for a superhero entry.

Again, Lost Kingdom should be able to have some pretty decent holds in the coming days and weekends, especially with a lack of blockbuster competition. But its numbers, including its lackluster day-to-day holds throughout the weekend, make it clear that it won’t match the first Aquaman’s 4.94 multiple. It seems as if it can probably reach around $120 million domestically. It pulled in an additional $80.1 million overseas for a $120.1 million worldwide start, but this is probably going to lose money from its theatrical run when it’s all said and done.

In better news for Warner Bros., Wonka held on fairly well in its second weekend. The Willy Wonka origin story brought in $18 million over three days and a projected $28 million including Monday. That’s down 54% in direct three day-to-three day comparison, perfectly good for this kind of film, bringing its totals to $85.5 million domestically and $256.8 million worldwide. The film is well on course for profit against its $125 million budget, with a domestic gross of $130 million or more expected at this point.

Illumination and Universal scored the #3 grosser of the weekend as Migration opened with $12.4 million through Sunday and $17.5 million through Christmas Day. Much like Aquaman, that’s a disappointing start for a film that was expected to at least get to $20 million through four days. It’s the lowest opening for an Illumination movie to date, “beating” Sing 2’s $22.3 million opening in December of 2021.

While the numbers certainly don’t look great, Migration is in a much better position than Aquaman. For one thing, it’s a family film which tend to have stellar multiples over the holiday season. (Sing 2 legged out to seven times its opening weekend.) For another, it is far better liked among both critics and moviegoers with a 69% RT score (still not great, but at least not negative) and an A- CinemaScore & 86% RT audience score.

More to the point, at a $72 million budget Migration is the last expensive Illumination film since Despicable Me cost $69 million back in 2010. That’s going to be much easier to make up if the film can keep good holds going into the coming weeks – a likely prospect since there aren’t any major new family films opening soon. Migration added a mild but not awful $22 million overseas for a $39.5 million worldwide start and should be able to hit around $70 million domestically at least. It won’t be a huge hit for Universal, but it should be in fine shape.

Romantic comedy returned to theaters with Anyone But You, which opened at #4 with $6 million through Sunday and $8 million through Monday. That’s below the other big R-rated romcom of the year, No Hard Feelings which started at $15 million back in June.

The difference between Hard Feelings and Anyone But You is, quite simply, star power. The romcom is one of the few genres that really needs a star or two to sell it, and No Hard Feelings’ Jennifer Lawrence is a much bigger star than Anyone But You’s up-and-comers Glen Powell and Sidney Sweeney. Critics were mild on Anyone with a 47% RT aggregated score, though the good news here is that moviegoers were charmed with an 85% RT audience score and a B+ CinemaScore.

It’s the audience scores that are likely to prove more telling here, as is generally the case with romantic comedies. Anyone was a fairly low-cost film for a studio production at $25 million (compare that to No Hard Feelings and Magic Mike’s Last Dance’s $45 million), which means that this one should prove to be profitable if it benefits from holiday holds. It seems likely to pass $35 million at the domestic box office and will begin rolling out internationally over the coming weeks.

#5 went to the Indian action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, which grossed $5.7 million through Sunday and $6.9 million through Monday. The first part of the action flick opened in the range of three similar films this year: Jawan ($6.1 million), Animal ($6.5 million), and Pathaan ($6.8 million).

The Indian film market is proving to be an increasingly lucrative one for cinemas, and the Bollywood studios are reaping the benefits. Salaar: Part 1 has totaled $53.7 million worldwide in its first weekend from a $36 million budget, and will be a hit when it’s all said and done. It’s hard to know where it will finish domestically, but $15 million-plus seems likely.

The Iron Claw made its presence known at #6 for the weekend with $4.9 million through Sunday and $6.5 million worldwide. The Sean Durkin-directed tale of the Von Erich family, was more or less where it was expected to do, kept aloft by strong critical reaction (87% on RT) and word of mouth (95% RT audience rating, A- CinemaScore).

Iron Claw should be in fairly good shape. Though it appears likely to miss out on heavy awards recognition, the budget of $16 million will be easy to make back. A24 is good with managing its budgets, and it should make a profit on this one with a likely $25 million domestic total and more overseas as it starts to roll out there.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes fell a number of rungs this weekend, but kept its numbers fairly strong. The prequel film added $3 million through Sunday and $4.3 million through Monday to bring its totals to $153.6 million domestically and $315.6 million worldwide. Against a $100 million budget, it is already a hit and should top $165 million stateside.

Indian cinema made its second appearance on the chart this week with the comedy Dunki. The Hindi-language film brought in $2.6 million over three days and $4 million through Monday, a very good start. It’s rare for more than one major Indian film to open domestically in the same weekend, but again the rise of the country’s cinema here in the US has proven to pay off. Dunki has $4.9 million total domestically and $28.2 million worldwide against a $16 million budget, and will ultimately be profitable for Yash Raj Films.

Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy And The Heron was down 48% in its third weekend with $3.2 million through Sunday and $3.8 million through Monday. The Hayo Miyazaki film has tallied up $31.2 million in the US and $121.1 million worldwide, making it a major hit for Studio Ghibli and GKIDS. The domestic finish line is probably around $40 million.

Godzilla Minus One slipped 46% in its fourth weekend to bring in $2.7 million ($3.2 million through Monday). The Toho-produced film has rung up $40.8 million domestically and $74.1 million worldwide, a big money maker against a budget of less than $15 million. The film is now looking likely to pass $50 million in the US.

Next weekend will Aquaman fighting for #1, though it may have a chance as the three new releases opened on Monday and so will have their opening weekend crowds spaced out throughout the week. The Color Purple is looking at a weekend in the $18 million range, while racing biopic Ferrari hopes for the high single digits. George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat is expected to do low single digit numbers for the weekend..

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Four-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Aquaman and The Lost Kingdom – $40 million ($40 million total, $120.1 million WW)
2. Wonka – $28 million ($85.5 million total, $256.8 million WW)
3. Migration – $17.5 million ($17.5 million total, $39.5 million WW)
4. Anyone But You – $8 million ($8 million total, $8 million WW)
5. Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire – $6.9 million ($6.9 million total, $53.7 million WW)
6. The Iron Claw – $6.5 million ($6.5 million total, $6.5 million WW)
7. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes – $4.3 million ($153.6 million total, $315.6 million WW)
8. Dunki – $4 million ($4.9 million total, $28.2 million WW) $16 million budget
9. The Boy and the Heron – $3.8 million ($31.2 million total, $121.1 million WW)
10. Godzilla Minus One – $3.2 million ($40.8 million total, $74.1 million WW)