411 Box Office Report: F1 Dominates For #1, M3GAN 2.0 Opens Quietly

F1: The Movie roared its way to the top of the box office this weekend with a big opening while M3GAN 2.0 fell short of expectations. Joseph Kosinski’s racing film soared with a $55.6 million opening weekend, surpassing its $45 million to $50 million estimates coming into the weekend. This marks the best opening for an Apple Original Film to date, beating out Killers of the Flower Moon’s $23.3 million with ease to set the new studio record.

This marks a big win for Apple. While the studio doesn’t worry too much about box office – their original films ultimately serve as high-profile advertising for Apple TV+ – the studio has had a number of notable box office failures including Flower Moon ($156.4 million worldwide on a $200 budget), Napoleon, Argylle, and Fly Me To The Moon. This is a nice turnaround for the studio. It also gives Brad Pitt his best box office opening since World War Z took in $66.4 million back in 2013, while giving director Joseph Kosinski his third straight major opening weekend following Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7 million) and Twisters ($81.3 million).

F1 came into the weekend with blockbuster appeal and positive buzz, targeting an adult demographic that hasn’t been well served in the past few months outside of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. The buzz grew thanks to positive critical sentiment, with an 83% critical aggregate on Rotten Tomatoes. Word of mouth is also good with a 97% RT audience rating and an A CinemaScore.

Now, it should be made clear that F1 is not a sure money maker yet. The film was expensive, with a $200 million production budget. But the start is very encouraging, especially when factoring in an $88.4 million overseas start for $144 million worldwide. While it will face heavy competition in the coming weeks, F1 seems likely to make at least $150 million domestically and perhaps even more. As long as international grosses hold up well, this should be a money maker for a studio that is used to looking at their films as a loss leader.

How To Train Your Dragon ceded the top spot to F1 as it slipped 47% in its third weekend with $19.4 million. The live-action remake is in hit mode at this point as it’s holding on well and now has $200.1 million domestically, with $454.4 million worldwide against a $150 million budget. The film is well on course for $240 million at this point, a big hit for Universal.

Elio held onto the #3 spot, though with a greater drop than it could afford. The Pixar film, which opened low last weekend, was down 49% to $10.7 million. By comparison, Elemental – the film Pixar is hoping Elio emulates in terms of legs – was down only 38% in its second weekend. It is holding better overseas now has $42.2 million domestically and $72.3 million worldwide. Still, it looks like it will fall short for the studio and a domestic total of around $70 million to $75 seems to be its endgame against a $150 million budget.

While Universal is racking up the receipts with How To Train Your Dragon, it can’t say the same for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel to the surprise horror hit brought in just $10.2 million, well below the $20 million to $25 million that was expected. For perspective, M3GAN opened in January of 2023 and opened to $30.4 million. Yeouch.

So, what went wrong here? We can blame sequel fatigue – certainly, horror sequels are more likely to fall flat than many other genres. But the blame lies more on the tonal shift. While M3GAN was PG-13 sci-fi horror, its sequel is sci-fi action and amped up the first film’s camp elements. That led to the film feeling vastly different in the marketing. The tonal whiplash was felt in the response as well; critics were not kind to the film and it has a 58% score on RT as opposed to the first’s 93%.

That said, it should be noted that word of mouth is actually pretty good. Fans who saw the marketing knew what they were getting into as reflected in the 84% RT audience rating and B+ CinemaScore. (For perspective, the first film has a 74% RT audience rating and B CinemaScore). There’s simply less of an audience for mainstream camp.

All that said, M3GAN 2.0 is not completely doomed. It has an upward climb to be sure; the film cost $25 million and has $7 million overseas for $17.2 million. If the positive word of mouth pays out there could still be a path to profit, but it will have to fight to get there. Right now, it seems likely to hit $30 million or so domestically, with overseas numbers determining if it’s a hit.

28 Years Later took an expected fall as it fell 68% in its second weekend to $9.7 million. That was always going to be the case for this fan-heavy franchise, especially considering that the film is a bit divisive among fans (remember that 64% word of mouth). But Sony isn’t stressing it too much, as they already have a film headed toward hit status. As it stands it had $50.4 million domestically and $103.1 million worldwide, both highs for the franchise. While the $60 million budget has yet to be fully recouped thanks to theater cuts and the rest of the box office equation, it is on a path to do so and it should finish out with at least $70 million domestically.

Lilo & Stitch continues to show good box office legs, off just 29% in its sixth week with $6.9 million. The Disney live action remake now has $400.1 million domestically with $946 million worldwide against a $100 million budget. It has a shot at $420 million in the US.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning also had a good hold again, down 36% in its sixth frame with $4.2 million. The expensive sequel is now up to $186 million domestically and $562 million worldwide. As said previously, it won’t be profitable in theaters due to that $400 million budget and is still taking aim at around $200 million as a final domestic tally.

The Materialists was down 53% in its third weekend with $3 million. The Celine Song-directed romantic dramedy now has $30.4 million domestically and $40.1 million worldwide, good numbers for the A24 offering. It is likely to close out to around $40 million or so stateside, profitable against a $20 million budget.

From the World of John Wick: Ballerina was also down 53% in its fourth weekend, adding $2.1 million to its tally. The action spinoff sits at $55.5 million stateside and $108.9 million worldwide against a $90 million budget. It is a money loser for Lionsgate in what has been a rough 12 months for the studio.

Karate Kid: Legends was down 58% in its fifth weekend with $1 million. The sequel has totaled $51.6 million domestically and $102.4 million worldwide, enough for a tiny bit of profit against a $45 million budget. It should end at about $55 million stateside.

We will have a new #1 next weekend when Jurassic World Rebirth storms theaters. The dino blockbuster is looking at around $70 million to $75 million over the three-day frame and $115 million-plus counting the full five-day Fourth of July weekend.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. F1: The Movie – $55.6 million ($55.6 million total, $144 million WW)
2. How To Train Your Dragon – $19.4 million ($200.1 million total, $454.4 million WW)
3. Elio – $10.7 million ($42.2 million total, $56.3 million WW)
4. M3GAN 2.0 – $10.2 million ($10.4 million total, $17.2 million WW)
5. 28 Years Later – $9.7 million ($50.4 million total, $103.1 million WW)
6. Lilo & Sitch – $6.9 million ($400.1 million total, $946 million WW)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning – $4.2 million ($186 million total, $561.7 million WW)
8. The Materialists – $3 million ($30.4 million total, $40.1 million WW)
9. From the World of John Wick: Ballerina – $2.1 million ($55.5 million total, $108.9 million WW)
10. Karate Kid: Legends – $1 million ($51.6 million total, $102.4 million WW)