411 Box Office Report: Solo: A Star Wars Story Takes Heavy Fall in Second Weekend

It was not a good weekend for Solo: A Star Wars Story, which ruled the box office but with a hefty drop from its opening numbers. The Star Wars anthology film brought in $29.3 million, down 65% from its three-day opening weekend take. That’s a higher drop than Rogue One’s 59%, but better than Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s 68% drop. The difference is those films opened huge, while Solo had a much more modest start, barely more than half of Rogue One’s $155.1 million and not even 40% of Last Jedi’s $220 million opening weekend.

Solo is looking at a probable loss at the box office at this point, which would likely make it the first Star Wars feature film to do so. At this point the movie has $148.9 million worldwide and $264.2 million worldwide. It should make it up to $200 million domestically, but with a likely $250 million budget plus marketing it’s probably a money loser.

Deadpool 2 evened out in its third weekend after a tough second-weekend drop. The X-Men spinoff sequel nailed down another $23.3 million, down 46% from last weekend. That brought its totals to $254.7 million domestically and $598.7 million worldwide. The film is looking rosy right now with a likely $305 million final domestic gross, a hit on a $110 million budget.

STX Entertainment led the way for the new releases with $11.5 million. That’s slightly above the $10 million range that it was predicted to do. The survival drama, which is based on a true story about a couple who were stranded in the middle of the Pacific Ocean during a hurricane, rounded up a solid critical consensus at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes but a mild audience reaction with a B CinemaScore.

Adrift sold itself as counter-programming to the heavy dose of action blockbusters atop the box office, and it was moderately successful at doing so. The film looks likely to top $30 million or so at the domestic box office, but its profit margin is uncertain. The film cost $30 million to produce and its international run is still very early with $11.9 million worldwide in a handful of international markets. It will need more overseas grosses to turn a profit.

Avengers: Infinity War was down 40% in its sixth weekend to $10.4 million. That’s continues to be a solid hold for the MCU film, which is now at $642.9 million domestically and $1.965 billion worldwide. The film is still in the running for around $670 million domestically and now looks likely to cross the $2 billion worldwide mark. The budget was $300 million.

Paramount’s comedy Book Club continues to maintain good weekend-to-weekend holds as it slipped 33% in its third weekend with $6.8 million. The ensemble filmhas brought its totals to $47.3 million domestically and is looking likely to cross the $60 million. Ity is a pretty solid success for Paramount on a $10 million budget.

Blumhouse Tilt had its second-best opening weekend to date with Upgrade, which marked off $4.4 million. The science fiction thriller, which stars Logan Marshall-Green, ranks behind only 2016’s The Darkness for the studio in opening weekends. The number is also above the $2 million to $3 million that was being predicted for it heading into the weekend. That’s largely thanks to strong reviews, which have it at an 85% average.

Blumhouse’s strategy is to release microbudgeted genre films and spend minimal amounts on promotion, thus ensuring modest hits. Upgrade should be able to pull that off. With the strong reviews and decent word of mouth (while there’s no CinemaScore, PostTrak puts it at a 76% positive and a healthy 46% “definite recommend.” The movie should be able to hit $10 million to $12 million domestically and will make enough overseas to put it over the top. The budget was $3 million.

Mellisa McCarthy’s Life of the Party edged down 36% with $3.5 million in its fourth weekend. The back-to-college comedy has now tallied $46.3 million domestically and $54.4 million overseas. Its overseas numbers are pushing it toward profit on a $30 million budget, but it’s not there yet. It should top $55 million in the US.

Breaking In was down 34% in its fourth weekend to $2.8 million. The home invasion thriller has chalked up $41.3 million domestically and $43.8 million worldwide, and should be able to make it to around $48 million. That will be profitable considering the low $6 million budget plus marketing costs.

Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point bombed, coming in at #9 in its opening weekend with just $2.3 million. The comedy was expected to open in the mid- to high-single digits but didn’t even come close to those numbers, as audiences stayed away in favor of other fare. It’s the lowest wide release start of Knoxville’s career with ease and even makes his 2005 flop The Ringer look robust by comparison at a $5.2 million start.

People will point to the comedy’s male demographic as an issue here, put up against so many blockbusters. But the simple fact of the matter is most people weren’t interested. And those who did may have been warned away by a terrible 19% RT consensus. Word of mouth isn’t good at all either; the C CinemaScoreis an ugly score for comedies, the kind of rating that seems more fit for a mediocre horrror film. Action Point will have trouble making it to $8 million and with a $19 million budget, Paramount has a loser here.

Overboard closed out the top ten with $2 million, down 37% in its fifth weekend. The comedy remake is now up to $45.5 million domestically and is starting to pick up some steam overseas with $57.6 million worldwide. It zeroing in on $50 million domestically by the end of its run and will be a profitable film on a $12 million budget.

Next weekend will see Solo give way at the box office for Ocean’s 8. The heist franchise spinoff is aiming for a $40 million to $45 million opening to control the box office. Jodie Foster’s action-thiller Hotel Artemis should be able to bring in numbers in the mid-single digits, while A24’s horror film Hereditary is riding a wave of critical love (98% on RT right now) and could be $10 million opener or more.

BOX OFFICE TOP TEN (Three-Day Domestic Numbers)
1. Solo: A Star Wars Story – $29.3 million ($148.9 million total)
2. Deadpool 2 – $23.3 million ($254.7 million total)
3. Adrift – $11.5 million ($11.5 million total)
4. Avengers: Infinity War – $10.4 million ($642.9 million total)
5. Book Club – $6.8 million ($47.3 million total)
6. Upgrade – $4.4 million ($4.4 million total)
7. Life of the Party – $3.5 million ($46.3 million total)
8. Breaking In – $2.8 million ($41.3 million total)
9. Action Point – $2.3 million ($2.3 million total)
10. Overboard – $2 million ($45.5 million total)