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411’s TV Renewal Predictions: The Gifted May Well Be Facing Its End
Image Credit: FOX
Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2018 – 2019 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and we’re back for a third year or predicting which shows will live to see another season. The fall season began its return this past week, and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.
This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.
How It Works
The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.
A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.
This Week’s Highlights
After a few weeks off, we’re back! Apologies for the time off, but that just gives us plenty to talk about this week. There have been plenty of developments and several shows have begun gravitating toward their future seasons (or lack thereof). At this point, most shows that have aired episodes are out of “Too Early To Tell” status. While there’s still plenty of time for fortunes to change, we have a much clearer look and where the networks stand with their shows.
* ABC
ABC continues to shine this season, at least in a relative fashion. The network isn’t the best performer this season, but it is definitely sitting much prettier than it did at this point last year. You can chalk that up, at least in part, to the success of The Conners. The Roseanne follow-up has proven that it isn’t a fluke, standing as the highest-rated new show of the season. Coupled with the network’s usual heavyweights ((Grey’s Anatomy, Modern Family, and The Goldbergs), the Alphabet has a solid bedrock of reliable hit shows. Add Station 19 to that list. The Grey’s Anatomy spinoff has stayed consistent throughout the current second season, and sits right at ABC’s scripted average. There’s little doubt that, barring an unforeseen collapse, this one isn’t back next season.
It isn’t just the old veterans and the spinoffs, though. This week sees several shows make their way into Likely Renewed status. Among them is The Good Doctor, which has fallen significantly from its first season but is still one of the higher-rated shows on the network. Black-ish may be considered an ABC staple at this point, but it’s still new compared to Grey’s and Modern Family. But it is performing solidly and despite speculation that Kenya Barris’ Netflix deal means the show is on its way out, it’s doing well enough that ABC will likely be happy to see it return.
ABC’s Bubble has also expanded, and it’s a somewhat less encouraging matter. A Million Little Things, Splitting Up Together, How to Get Away with Murder and Fresh Off the Boat are in a nebulous status, all perfoming weakly but making their individual cases. The problem is that half of those shows are relatively new, and with ABC in a rebuilding phase that is concerning. Splitting Up Together coasted on the strength of being Roseanne’s follow-up, and its numbers have sunk this year. Meanwhile, Million Little Things started off okay and quickly sunk to mediocre. Neither of these shows are screwed yet, but the latter has the disadvantage of being new. A network is likely to cut bait on a show that starts off weak and even though Things is a full tenth above the other Bubble shows, it’s easy to imagine it being well below those numbers next year. That makes it a danger for cancellation.
Thus farm only one show is sitting in full-on Likely Cancelled range. That would be Speechless. The series is hanging at just 49% of ABC’s scripted average and even on Friday, that’s not a saving point. Its partner on Fridays, Fresh of the Boat, is at least sitting above 50%. But it’s not in good shape either and it won’t take much for the show to find that its current fifth season will be its last.
* CBS
Things aren’t looking good over at CBS. For an idea of how rough the situation is over there, consider this fact. Last season saw the Eye finish at the highest 18 – 49 demo rating among scripted shows for the broadcast networks. This season it is in fourth place. The drop has been severe as its elder shows look really long on the tooth at this point, though there are a couple of new series trying to pick up the slack. To give you an idea of how dire things are, if we take the not-returning The Big Bang Theory’s numbers out, CBS drops below a 1.0 scripted demo average. That’s a yikes and a half.
But there is some good news. Along with the relative hits of Young Sheldon, the ever-reliable NCIS and Mom, three new series are making a strong case for renewal. FBI has held up fairly well through the fall and ranks as the network’s sixth best-rated series right now. That’s an important piece of the puzzle for a network whose brand is sitcoms and procedurals. And two new sitcoms are in fine shape in The Neighborhood and God Friended Me. This was not necessarily the case a few weeks ago, but they’ve made some gains and shown stability which moves then into the Likely Renewed category. The NCIS spinoffs are doing well enough to warrant renewal as well, though perhaps not for many more seasons at this point.
Everything else is a big slog of medicore. That includes everything from veterans like Criminal Minds and Madame Secretary to sophomores (SEAL Team and SWAT) to the “new” shows. Murphy Brown and Magnum, P.I. have both failed to bring in viewers, though neither are doing so direly that they can be written off. Between the two Brown has a very slight edge, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet the bank on either of them coming back. And freshman Happy Together, while consistent, has been consistently iffy to the point that it’s CBS’s lone series in Likely Cancelled status right now. While the show has avoided major drops, it also started off low and is lost amidst a sea of higher-profile shows. Without a back-nine order to bolster buzz for it, I don’t see how the show returns next season.
* NBC
First, a little bit of housekeeping here, as I Feel Bad becomes the first functionally-cancelled show of the season. Sure, NBC says that a decision will be made later. But what they really mean is the decision will be announced later. The fact that the network chose not to order any additional episodes is a sure sign the show is gone. This isn’t surprising. The show was lambasted critically and then failed to bring in viewers. Au revoir.
Other than that ignominious news, NBC has a lot to crow about. In addition to the star power of This Is Us and the ever-present Law & Order: SVU, the network has its Chicago trio. Chicago P.D., Chicago Med and Chicago Fire were moved into a single programming block this year, and that’s been a huge success. Fire is a rare show that has actually gained ratings, and significantly so. All three shows are doing well and provide a powerful franchise for NBC.
The network’s new shows are looking good, although they have a couple of warning signs that should be noted. Manifest and New Amsterdam are still doing well enough that renewal seems to be destined. Both shows started very strongly and haven’t yet dropped to points that they’re seriously likely to be in danger. That said, there have still been drops. Manifest has lost over half its premiere demo rating, and New Amsterdam is down 40%. If they are badly hurt when they go to winter break, things could turn out poorly for both. But at this point that seems at least somewhat unlikely.
Right now, Superstore is the only NBC show on the Bubble, and even it just barely made it there. There is plenty to suggest the show may well come back, including the fact that it has been rock solid in terms of consistency. However, that consistency is at just 80% of NBC’s scripted average. As other shows fall, Superstore’s fortunes should rise. For now though, I’m not completely confident in its hopes.
Finally, we have the brutal lineup on Friday. Blindspot’s prospects have not particularly improved, and now Midnight, Texas joins it. The supernatural drama was originally a summer show, and NBC thought it would take a chance by moving it to the fall. That chance didn’t even come close to paying off. Both shows are below a 0.5, and even on Fridays, that’s not renewal-worthy.
* FOX
This will be a running theme throughout this season, but it’s really odd trying to predict FOX right now. There are some obvious predictions, of course. Empire is going to be renewed, as are syndication-ready Star, sophomore hit 9-1-1, and the Sunday night animation block. None of those things should be surprising to anyone. But beyond those things start to get strange. The reason of course is Disney’s purchase of Fox, which includes Fox Television but not the actual network itself. What this means is that the Fox TV-produced shows on the network are no longer in-house productions, which complicates what would have otherwise been easy decisions in some cases. And then you add in the fact that the network is getting a major face lift as it brings Smackdown on board, thus losing another night of scripted television. This makes the field much narrower on the network, and that means some tough decisions are going to be made.
One decision that won’t be tough is Last Man Standing. The Tim Allen sitcom has shed a lot of the curious audience that tuned in for the return in September, but that happened in week two. Since then it has been more or less consistent from week to week. The show is Fox’s fourth highest-rated show right now, and that’s huge for a Friday-airing television series. There’s little doubt that it comes back, and it should still be able to carry The Cool Kids across the finish line as well. Cool Kids has been much softer than Standing, but they still form a TV block that lap everything else on Fridays.
Everything else is in flux for Fox. Or rather I should say, everything else is kind of screwed. The Resident currently lives in limbo, hanging in the middle third of the ratings at renewable, but not great, numbers. The medical show finds itself reliant on seeing what happens with the midseason series. If enough of them fail, we’ll see a third season. Otherwise, this one could come down to the wire in the spring.
The rest of FOX’s shows are on life support at best. That includes Rel and Lethal Weapon, which have been Likely Cancelled most of the season. If you took out Rel’s big first episode airing after a Sunday Night Football game, it would be FOX’s lowest-rated show and one of the worst-rated shows across networks. There’s essentially no chance it earns a new season. And Lethal Weapon’s prospects don’t look much better than it did a while ago. All the bad buzz means that it’s been unable to attract new or lost viewers back. Barring some big turnaround soon, it should be done.
Unfortunately for X-Men fans, the same can be said for The Gifted. The superhero show has been a bit streaky this season and there have been times that it’s looked ahead of the curve. But the past few airings have seen it settle into a low-rated groove that it can’t seem to pull itself out of. If Fox TV wasn’t splitting off, I could see this one surviving in the name of corporate synergy for a shortened third season. As it stands, The Gifted’s best hopes are for a big change in fortunes, one that seems a bit less likely with only eight episodes to go.
* The CW
The prospects for most of The CW’s series cleared up over the past few weeks, and they’re right about where you might expect. With a new night being added, the network has some timeslots it didn’t have before. However, that hasn’t changed much in terms of their current slate of shows. The Arrowverse and other genre series remain The CW’s bread and butter, with everything else just hanging in there. Arrow, Black Lightning, and Legends of Tomorrow have all been consistent over the first part of the season, and they’ve all earned good shots at renewal. They join Flash, Riverdale, Supernatural and Supergirl as the obvious picks to come back again.
After those shows, we have the newbies. Charmed followed up its good start with a predictable ratings drop. While it’s not in the worst shape right now, recent episodes are slightly concerning. This past Sunday’s airing hit a season-low 0.2. That’s not where it wants to be. It’s not in danger yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
The bigger surprise is the tenacity of All-American. The football drama started anemically and seemed headed for the showers, but it has surged back strong in recent weeks. It’s hard to suggest that this show is likely to come back, but it’s certainly not looking like it’s in cancellation territory either. Right now the series is very much in a limbo status, and the next few airings will be crucial to its future.
And finally, there’s Dynasty. Predicting this one is nightmare-inducing, given the way that it defied the odds last year. Right now it doesn’t look in anywhere close to the shape it would need to see a third season. But then again, its most recent episode was higher-rated than the same episode in season one. International sales through Netflix and other outlets kept it in the running last year. I have it in Likely Cancelled, mostly because based on seasonal trends the show is likely to end up at a truly unsustainable level. But if it retains enough of its audience, this could really change. If it does so, it’ll likely come at the cost of All-American or one (or more) of the other freshmen.
ABC
Prediction Record:
0-0
Renewed:
None
Likely Renewal:
* The Conners (1.69)
* Grey’s Anatomy (1.67)
* Modern Family (1.41)
* The Goldbergs (1.25)
* The Good Doctor (1.11)
* American Housewife (1.06)
* Station 19 (1.02)
* Black-ish (0.96)
Bubble:
* A Million Little Things (0.85)
* Splitting Up Together (0.74)
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.74)
* Fresh Off the Boat (0.59)
Likely Cancellation:
* Speechless (0.52)
Cancelled:
None
Too Early to Call:
* The Kids Are Alright (1.09)
* Single Parents (1.05)
* The Rookie (0.82)
* For the People (Premieres Midseason)
* Whiskey Cavalier (Premieres Midseason)
CBS
Prediction Record:
0-0
Renewed:
None
Likely Renewal:
* Young Sheldon (1.73)
* NCIS (1.31)
* Mom (1.27)
* The Neighborhood (1.13)
* FBI (1.08)
* God Friended Me (1.00)
* NCIS: New Orleans (0.89)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.88)
* Bull (0.80)
* MacGyver (0.71)
Bubble:
* Murphy Brown (0.88)
* Magnum P.I. (0.87)
* Seal Team (0.83)
* Criminal Minds (0.75)
* SWAT (0.73)
* Madam Secretary (0.60)
Likely Cancellation:
* Happy Together (0.88)
Cancelled:
* Big Bang Theory (2.26) – Final Season Already Announced
Too Early to Call:
* Blue Bloods (0.82)
* Hawaii Five-0 (0.80)
* Instinct (Premieres Midseason)
* Life in Pieces (Premieres Midseason)
* Man With a Plan (Premieres Midseason)
NBC
Prediction Record:
1-0
Renewed:
* Will & Grace (0.85)
Likely Renewal:
* This Is Us (2.21)
* Manifest (1.44)
* New Amsterdam (1.32)
* Chicago Fire (1.29)
* Chicago Med (1.23)
* Chicago PD (1.13)
* Law & Order: SVU (0.95)
* The Good Place (0.87)
Bubble:
* Superstore (0.88)
Likely Cancellation:
* Blindspot (0.46)
* Midnight, Texas (0.41)
Cancelled:
* I Feel Bad (0.64)
Too Early to Call:
* Good Girls (Premieres Midseason)
* AP Bio (Premieres Midseason)
* The Blacklist (Premieres Midseason)
FOX
Prediction Record:
0-0
Renewed:
None
Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.54)
* 9-1-1 (1.50)
* The Simpsons (1.34)
* Last Man Standing (1.34)
* Star (1.17)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.12)
* Family Guy (1.08)
* The Cool Kids (1.04)
Bubble:
* The Resident (0.98)
Likely Cancellation:
* Rel (0.78)
* Lethal Weapon (0.69)
* The Gifted (0.67)
Cancelled:
* Gotham (Premieres Midseason) – Final Season Previously Announced
Too Early to Call:
* The Orville (Premieres December 30th)
The CW
Prediction Record:
0-0
Renewed:
None
Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.66)
* Riverdale (0.46)
* Supernatural (0.42)
* Supergirl (0.38)
* Arrow (0.36)
* Black Lightning (0.33)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.30)
Bubble:
* Charmed (0.34)
* Legacies (0.33)
* All-American (0.24)
Likely Cancellation:
* Dynasty (0.18)
Cancelled:
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.14) – Final Season Previously Announced
* iZombie (Premieres Midseason) – Final Season Previously Announced
* Jane the Virgin (Premieres Midseason) – Final Season Previously Announced
Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres Midseason)
