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411’s TV Renewal Predictions: The CW’s Move to Six Nights Solidifies Its Lineup

February 19, 2018 | Posted by Jeremy Thomas
Black Lightning - The Resurrection

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

It’s been two weeks since the last edition of this column, and there have been some big changes. While there are other developments that were flashier thanks to the involvement of actual show titles, the most impactful news of the last could of weeks came with The CW. The network has announced that they will be expanding to six nights of original programming next year by adding a Sunday lineup. This makes the network the final nationwide broadcast network to air original programming across six out of the seven days of the week.

For the most part, this doesn’t change a ton regarding the show’s current schedule. Most of the shows have already been considered locks to come back, since the network’s shows have been consistently performing well. But for Jane the Virgin fans, this is great news. The show has been on the upper end of the Bubble for the entirety of the season, but there was still a chance that the show wouldn’t come back. Those chances aren’t 100% gone, but they’ve largely evaporated now that the network will have another night of content to fill. Sure, more pilots could be brought to series to fill up the space. And in some cases, that will happen. But with much less limited real estate next season, it would seem unrealistic to believe the network won’t give the show a proper send-off.

“What about Dynasty or Valor,” you may ask. Well, the chances of those shows haven’t improved significantly. The network has already declined to order a back nine for Valor, which is typically the death knell for a series. And Dynasty likely isn’t viewed as having done any better than a new series would. As of now, it would appear that only Jane will benefit, which is probably as it should be.

ABC had a couple of developments over the fortnight as well. Notably, the network announced that Once Upon a Time would not be coming back for an eighth season. This is by no means a surprise. The show tried to “soft reboot” itself this season, but a move to Friday didn’t help and viewers that had already tuned out didn’t see much reason to return. OUAT’s cancellation will help the odds of Agents of SHIELD slightly, since every cancellation narrows the field of candidates jostling for a timeslot.

In other news, Kevin (Probably) Saves The World has had a rough few weeks that leaves it on the verge of Likely Cancellation. Frankly, the only reason that the show isn’t there yet is because of ABC’s dire slate in terms of comedies. In either case, three weeks of a 0.64, 0.58, and 0.54 are far from encouraging. Right now, it still has a path to renewal if it rebounds. But that road is very quickly coming to an end.

Most of the other networks haven’t had a ton of news. The biggest developments were at FOX, but those were mostly the result of trends that were already obvious. The X-Files has yet to rebound, and the last two episodes have been a 0.9. For a show this hyped in as good of a timeslot as it is, that’s not good. There are still four episodes left and marguee names mean something, but it won’t even save a show like this…especially when Gillian Anderson has already said she’s not coming back.

The better news for the network came in its Monday night lineup. The Resident saw an impressive rebound last week, hitting the highest point since the NFC Championship Game-boosted premiere. The show is by no means in good shape, but it could still survive at this point if it has stabilized. Meanwhile, Lucifer also looked stronger last week, rising two-tenths to the best number since November. Lucifer is already pretty sure to return thanks to its syndication value with a fourth season, but this will make Fox executives’ decision a little easier.

NBC and CBS didn’t change much. Just about all networks are off for the Winter Olympics, and that certainly includes the network the games are airing on. The only noteworthy thing for NBC is This Is Us’ stellar post-Super Bowl episode numbers. That’s not surprising for the runaway hit, especially how much this particular episode (which revealed a major plot point) was hyped. But it also led to a stronger number the Tuesday after in its regular timeslot. Obviously This Is Us is already renewed, but it’s still a nice note for NBC.

As for CBS, only one change happened and that’s SEAL Team dropping to the Bubble. This isn’t due to a drop in that show’s numbers, but rather a rise in SWAT’s. The other freshman action-drama drew numbers even with SEAL Team last week, and those numbers aren’t strong enough that they are both likely to survive. The next few weeks will determine which of these shows live and which one moves to Likely Cancellation.

ABC

Renewed:
* Modern Family (1.73)
* The Goldbergs (1.53)

Likely Renewal:
* Grey’s Anatomy (2.10)
* The Good Doctor (1.84)
* American Housewife (1.30)
* Speechless (1.16)
* Black-ish (1.11)
* Fresh Off the Boat (1.04)

Bubble:
* How to Get Away with Murder (0.93)
* Designated Survivor (0.81)
* Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (0.69)
* Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD (0.60)

Likely Cancellation:
* Marvel’s Inhumans (0.61)

Cancelled:
* The Middle (1.35) – Final season previously announced
* Scandal (1.20) – Final season previously announced
* The Mayor (0.82)
* Once Upon a Time (0.55)
* Ten Days in the Valley (0.35)

Too Early to Call:
* Alex, Inc. (Premieres March 28th)
* The Crossing (Premieres April 2nd)
* Deception (Premieres March 11th)
* For The People (Premieres March 13th)
* Grey’s Anatomy Spinoff (Premieres March 29th)
* Quantico (Premieres April 26th)
* Roseanne (Premieres March 27th)
* Splitting Up Together (Premieres March 27th)

CBS

Renewed:
* Big Bang Theory (2.92)
* Young Sheldon (2.37)

Likely Renewal:
* Mom (1.50)
* NCIS (1.46)
* Kevin Can Wait (1.29)
* Bull (1.21)
* Life in Pieces (1.18)
* Man With a Plan (1.07)
* Criminal Minds (1.01)
* Hawaii Five-0 (1.01)
* NCIS: New Orleans (1.00)
* NCIS: Los Angeles (0.96)
* Blue Bloods (0.94)
* Code Black (Premieres April 25th)

Bubble:
* Seal Team (1.09)
* SWAT (1.03)
* Superior Donuts (0.95)
* MacGyver (0.86)
* Scorpion (0.84)

Likely Cancellation:
* 9JKL (0.97)
* Madam Secretary (0.67)

Cancelled:
* Me, Myself & I (1.00)
* Wisdom of the Crowd (0.91)

Too Early to Call:
* Elementary (Premieres April 23rd)

NBC

Renewed:
* This Is Us (3.18)
* Will & Grace (1.70)
* The Good Place (1.14)

Likely Renewal:
* Chicago Med (1.33)
* Law & Order: SVU (1.30)
* Chicago PD (1.20)
* Superstore (1.12)
* Chicago Fire (1.11)
* The Blacklist (0.98)
* Blindspot (0.66)
* Shades of Blue (Premieres Midseason)

Bubble:
None

Likely Cancellation:
* Law & Order True Crime (1.05)
* The Brave (0.92)
* AP Bio (0.80)
* Great News (0.73)
* Taken (0.47

Cancelled:
None

Too Early to Call:
None

FOX

Renewed:
* The Simpsons (1.89)
* 9-1-1 (1.68)
* The Orville (1.25)
* The Gifted (1.01)

Likely Renewal:
* Empire (1.92)
* Bob’s Burgers (1.38)
* Star (1.35)
* Family Guy (1.29)
* Lucifer (0.90)

Bubble:
* The Resident (1.42)
* Ghosted (1.17)
* Lethal Weapon (1.05)
* The X-Files (1.04)
* The Last Man on Earth (0.90)
* Gotham (0.87)
* The Mick (0.77)

Likely Cancellation:
* L.A. to Vegas (0.89)
* Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.66)
* The Exorcist (0.41)

Cancelled:
* New Girl (Final season previously announced, premieres April 10th)

Too Early to Call:

The CW

Renewed:

Likely Renewal:
* The Flash (0.87)
* Black Lightning (0.66)
* Supernatural (0.59)
* Supergirl (0.55)
* Riverdale (0.54)
* Legends of Tomorrow (0.54)
* Arrow (0.49)
* Jane the Virgin (0.26)
* Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.22)

Bubble:

Likely Cancellation:
* Dynasty (0.21)

Cancelled:
* Valor (0.21)
* The Originals (Final season previously announced, premieres April 20th)

Too Early to Call:
* The 100 (Premieres April 24th)
* iZombie (Premieres February 26th)
* Life Sentence (Premieres March 7th)

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